American Conference commissioner Tim Pernetti spent the initial 15 minutes of his state-of-the-conference address late last week on big ideas and weighty topics.

Then he got down to brass tacks and football facts:

The American led all Group of Five leagues last season in non-conference winning percentage and schedule strength and was the only league to beat opponents from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. It put nine teams in bowl games, three in the final Associated Press Top 25 poll and one in the College Football Playoff (Tulane).

“Compelling storylines for this year? Line ’em up,” Pernetti said at the American’s summer media event in St. Petersburg. “They are unlimited.”

Atop that list: Will the American retain its status as the top conference in the Group of Five, which morphs into the Group of Six with the return of the Pac-12?

The rebuilt Pac-12 possesses arguably the biggest football brand outside the four power conferences: Boise State has the talent, continuity and culture necessary to claim the CFP berth allocated for the best team in the Group of Six.

Of course, playoff participation is not the only way to determine the best conference in the Group of Six. Depth matters, as well.

What if Boise State reaches the CFP as the only Pac-12 team ranked by the selection committee, for instance, but the American has three teams in the final Top 25 rankings? Each conference would have a case for supremacy.

A similar dynamic is playing out at the Power Four level, where the Big Ten has claimed three consecutive national titles but the SEC boasts greater competitive depth, more compelling games and higher TV ratings.

Here’s how we see the Group of Six hierarchy with the regular season one month away:

1. American

The hesitancy with this placement is rooted in turnover: Tulane, North Texas, USF and Memphis, which combined to win 40 games last season, lost coaches to SEC and Big 12 schools. Perhaps one or two will remain on the top tier of the American — Tulane is probably the best bet — but we expect some regression. (Notably, six American teams have second-year coaches.) Navy is well-suited to challenge for the conference title and a CFP bid. So, too, is UTSA. But roster attrition was heavy across the conference’s top tier. Add that to the coaching changes and the path to 10 wins narrows considerably. The American warrants an ever-so-slight edge over the new Pac-12 based on the number of potential CFP candidates, but we could come to regret this placement by the end of the season.

2. Pac-12

Will Boise State stand alone? Or will the rebuilt conference produce a second (and third?) team that flirts with the playoff and consistently receives Top 25 consideration? Our confidence in the Broncos starts with the return of coach Spencer Danielson and senior quarterback Maddux Madsen, and they are stout on both lines of scrimmage, per usual. Fresno State, San Diego State, Texas State — any of the three could rise above the pack. (We are less optimistic about the Pac-12 holdovers, Washington State and Oregon State, due largely to their unproven head coaches.) But with just eight teams and a high competitive floor, the Pac-12 won’t provide the favorites with many easy assignments. That could make a one- or two-loss finish difficult and reduce the number of teams contending for the precious CFP berth.

3. Mountain West

The reconstructed Mountain West, which features UTEP, North Dakota State and Northern Illinois, is arguably the most top-heavy, bottom-light conference in the Group of Six. That could be a blessing if UNLV or New Mexico (or both) roll through league play with no more than one loss. (NDSU, the former FCS kingpin, needs a few recruiting cycles to become a contender, in our view.) But the downside to a conference with a soft underbelly is the damage done to schedule strength. It’s easy to envision the Mountain West champion having one fewer loss than its counterpart in the American or Pac-12 but a substantially weaker SOS.

4. Sun Belt

Were these rankings based solely on the likelihood of sending a team to the CFP, the Sun Belt would be higher on the list and perhaps even No. 1. Such is the width of the road ahead for James Madison. Yes, the Dukes’ multi-year dominance came under Curt Cignetti and Bob Chesney, who are in charge at Indiana and UCLA, respectively. But first-year coach Billy Napier has a history of success at the Group of Six level (Louisiana-Lafayette) and a roster that’s plenty capable of churning through the Sun Belt. Old Dominion and Marshall are the chief challengers.

5. Mid-American

There is plenty to like about the MAC, from the alignment of the schools to the way they consistently maximize the talent that rolls through the conference on a yearly basis. But it rarely produces an elite team that can stockpile the wins needed for CFP consideration, and 2026 looks to be no exception. Western Michigan, which returns a slew of starters from its 10-win season, has the best roster. But are the Broncos good enough to finish 12-1 or 11-2? (They open the season at Michigan, so 13-0 isn’t a viable option.) We’re skeptical. MACtion, it seems, is terrific for everything but the CFP.

6. Conference USA

What James Madison is to the Sun Belt, Liberty is to Conference USA. And fortunately for the CFP selection committee, the teams will collide in a Week 1 showdown that effectively stands as a playoff elimination game. Beyond that assignment, however, Liberty will have few opportunities to build out a playoff resume that can compete with the best teams in the American, Pac-12 and Mountain West. C-USA simply lacks the quality depth needed to impress either the committee members or their computer metrics.