Re “Ramona blaze threatening San Diego Country Estates” (July 23): The story on the Creelman fire showed what a firebreak is worth: 350 acres burned in Ramona; the homes stood.
But July 22 wasn’t a Santa Ana winds day. Under Santa Anas, that corridor runs west — the 2007 Witch Creek fire’s path. Witch Creek stopped at Lake Hodges because the lake was full. The water was the firebreak — SDG&E calls it critical.
That firebreak is gone. A mandate holds Hodges below 280 feet; ahead of El Niño, below 270. Six hundred acres of open water are now dry grass CalFire rates highest-risk. Between an inland ignition and Del Mar, nothing but fuel.
The math is upside down: Wildfire is 10,000 times likelier than a dam breach. Upstream, 10,000 homes and the San Dieguito River Park. Downstream, per the city’s report, 500.
The fix is free: Stop draining the rain. Raise Hodges to 295 feet — still 20 feet below the top.
— Paul Bernstein, Escondido