Phoenix Mercury: C-1 of 2

Phoenix Gets: Kelsey Plum

There’s a scenario where this trade looks brilliant. Plum could be exactly what Phoenix needs, helping the team win something like 10 of its final 14 games to steal a playoff spot.

There’s also a world where integrating a high-usage star coming off a lower leg injury takes time and Phoenix barely misses the playoffs—after trading a first-round pick for Plum, who could leave in free agency a few months later (maybe to Golden State).

That’s what makes this such a fascinating gamble. Even if Plum re-signs, it’s fair to question what the ceiling is for a core built around a 35-year-old Alyssa Thomas, 32-year-old Kahleah Copper and 32-year-old Plum.

Let’s start with the optimistic case. Plum is the best guard you could possibly pair with Thomas. She can create out of ball screens, is one of the best screening guards in basketball and an outstanding all-around off-ball scorer.

Before missing 10 games with a lower-leg injury, Plum was on one of the best self-creation stretches in league history. She shot 54.8 percent on pull-up twos, 46.5 percent on pull-up threes and 75.9 percent at the rim, according to Synergy Sports. She was putting up those numbers without anywhere near the top-end talent now surrounding her in Phoenix.

The Mercury’s upcoming schedule also gives them a chance. Three of their final 14 games come against Washington, beginning with a game on the road on August 9. All of those are likely must-win games if Phoenix wants to make up some ground in the standings. 

They also have two games each against Dallas, Atlanta and Las Vegas. They’ll likely need to win at least half those games to have a realistic chance—if not more.

But even if Phoenix sneaks into the eighth seed, what then? They’d see a dominant Minnesota team in the first round, and the odds they’d win that series are low. It’s not like the Mercury have been good defensively to begin with, and now they are worse on that end. Akoa Makani was Phoenix’s best point-of-attack defender and a key piece in their Finals run last year.

Most franchises wouldn’t consider making an all-in move for a star on an expiring contract while being No. 12 in the standings. But much like owner Mat Ishbia has done with the NBA’s Suns, the Mercury have shown they’re willing to aggressively chase star talent, even if it means never making a top-10 draft pick.

Historically, though, the most sustainable path to building a WNBA championship contender has been through the draft. Phoenix wasn’t going to be in the mix for the JuJu Watkins sweepstakes in 2027 regardless, but had the franchise pivoted toward a rebuild after this season, it could’ve at least had a shot at a generational prospect like Sarah Strong in 2028.

Ultimately, this trade comes down to one question: Does Plum re-sign? If she does, the deal becomes much easier to justify. But with an older core and a relatively short championship window, Phoenix may be investing a lot in a team that’s good enough to make the playoffs, yet not quite a true title contender.