Republican gubernatorial hopeful Sheriff Chad Bianco is narrowly leading the crowded primary field to replace outgoing California Governor Gavin Newsom, according to a new poll commissioned by one of the Democratic candidates in the race.

“Californians are craving real leadership after eight years of Newsom’s posturing and primping while so many are suffering. A new way forward begins in November 2026 when I am elected Governor,” Bianco told Newsweek in a statement on Friday.

Newsweek also reached out to the campaigns of former Democratic Representative Katie Porter, Republican candidate Steve Hilton and former Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa about the new survey results.

Why It Matters

Newsom, a prominent Democrat and rumored 2028 presidential contender, has led California since 2019. The state, which is a Democratic stronghold, hasn’t had a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.

Most analysts would not expect a Republican to ultimately win the California gubernatorial race, but a strong Democratic front-runner has yet to emerge. While former Vice President Kamala Harris was previously considered a contender, she announced in July that she would not seek the office. Porter was seen as the second strongest Democrat, but has recently faced backlash over a viral video showing her berating and cursing at a staffer, and another clip of her angrily leaving an interview when pressed by a journalist.

What To Know

The latest public polling was conducted by Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin on behalf of Villaraigosa’s campaign. It showed four candidates in close contention, but Bianco, who has been the sheriff for Riverside County since 2019, came out on top with a very slim lead.

Bianco, a supporter of President Donald Trump, had the highest level of support in the survey at 20 percent. Villaraigosa came in second at 19 percent, and GOP candidate Hilton, a former Fox News host and current contributor to the network, was third at 18 percent. Porter placed fourth with 15 percent.

Notably, the pollster highlighted Porter’s recent controversies in its survey questions, asking respondents if they had heard of the recent issues and whether it would affect their vote. Seventy-two percent said they about Porter’s controversies and that it would make them less likely to vote for her. The poll results were released on November 3 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Previous Polling Showed a Republican Taking the Lead

In October, Emerson College surveyed 900 likely voters in California, showing Hilton in the lead with 16 percent support, followed by Porter at 15 percent. Bianco held third place with 11 percent. Two Democrats—Villaraigosa and former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra—each received 5 percent. Other candidates remained in the single digits.

The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

The survey was notable because Hilton gained four points since Emerson College’s previous poll, conducted August 4 to 5, among 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. In that earlier poll, Hilton registered 12 percent and Porter led with 18 percent, indicating a 3-point decline for Porter and a corresponding rise for Hilton.

An earlier Zogby Strategies poll conducted in September surveyed 1,000 likely California voters. When respondents were presented with candidate messaging, Hilton garnered 29 percent, Porter 23 percent, and 23 percent remained undecided. The Zogby poll’s margin of error was also plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

California’s June Primary

California’s system allows candidates from all parties to compete in the same primary, with the top two, regardless of affiliation, advancing to the general election. Despite close polling today, analysts have said that California’s Democratic majority makes a Democratic win likely in the end.

It’s possible that the general election will ultimately be a contest between two Democrats, but it remains to be seen how the race plays out with none of the candidates yet emerging as a clear front-runner.

Katie Porter Faces Backlash

Porter came under scrutiny in early October after a heated exchange with CBS News California Investigates correspondent Julie Watts went viral. In a separate incident, video footage from July 2021 surfaced, showing Porter using strong language toward a staff member during a video call.

The crowded 2026 field, combined with the state’s unique primary structure and Porter’s declining poll numbers, appears to have contributed to Republicans narrowly leading in recent polls.

What People Are Saying

Porter campaign spokesperson Peter Opitz said in a statement to Newsweek last month: “Katie is the experienced, battle-tested fighter that Californians want as their next Governor. Poll after poll shows Katie leading her Democratic opponents by double digits, driven by grassroots supporters who know that she will stand up to Donald Trump’s attacks on California and bring down costs across the state. Katie remains focused on sharing her message with voters in every part and pocket of California.”

Steve Hilton, in an October statement to Newsweek: “I’ve been working hard and traveling to every part of California. I love this state so much and it breaks my heart to see the pain and struggle for regular working people after 15 years of one party rule. Everyone can see we need change, and some political balance in California.”

What Happens Next

The California gubernatorial primary will take place on June 2, 2026, followed by the general election on November 3. Observers expect the polling landscape to shift as the campaigns ramp up and candidates refine their messaging. Ongoing scrutiny of candidates’ public behavior, coupled with potential debates and campaign events, will likely play a role in upcoming polls and voter preferences.