It’s fair to make a case for the Milwaukee Brewers as baseball’s smartest franchise outside of Los Angeles.
I won’t spell out that case here, and I doubt many Padres fans care about the Brew Crew — even if they’d get a laugh out of the 7-foot sausage mascots who indulge in sprint races during the sixth inning.
As we consider what this year’s Brewers can tell us about the Padres, just know this:
No one in MLB is surprised to see them outperform their small-market status in yet another regular season. They took Major League Baseball’s best record (74-45) into Tuesday’s game in the East Village, a .622 win rate built on smart pitching and defense, adept contact hitting and sharp baserunning.
With the Brewers visiting San Diego this week, I delved into their seasons in order to learn more about the Padres.
Where did that lead me? To a surprising place.
I see the two rosters as equally October-capable.
Brew Crew fans will rightly accuse me of drinking too many IPAs. After all, the Padres sat 11 1/2 games behind their team heading into Tuesday.
But as Brewers fans know all too well, October baseball differs a lot from the 162-game version.
Home run power matters more in the postseason.
A lot more.
The past six World Series champions have finished first, third, fourth, third, third and second in home runs in the regular season.
The Brew Crew sits last in home runs, a Kryptonite alert.
Rising to 20th in home runs, the Padres have MLB’s sixth-best long-ball total since the All-Star break, nine coming from Jackson Merrill, six apiece from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ty France, and four from Manny Machado, the team leader.
A vital distinction must be made.
While the Brewers will go to the playoffs absent a collapse, the Padres still have to overcome either the Phillies or the Diamondbacks while also holding off their own pursuers.
While the Diamondbacks may regret not trading for starting pitching this summer, the Padres and Brewers will expect recently acquired players to boost their stretch runs.
Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller had to address the starting pitching, and he did so by dealing for a pair of veterans having above-average seasons, Robbie Ray and Casey Mize.
The Brewers’ Matt Arnold obtained four pitchers: starter Dustin May and relievers JoJo Romero, Antonio Senzatela and Codi Heuer. Also, he acquired a backup catcher.
But it was the pitcher the Brewers didn’t land that dominated the post-deadline reactions.
Tarik Skubal, the Tigers’ ace, went to the Dodgers.
The price was three prospects, headed by outfielder Zyhir Hope.
Scouts suggested that the Brewers could’ve given the Tigers a better minor league package than L.A.’s without gutting their farm system. Skubal could’ve teamed up with Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski, 24, who leads MLB in ERA and strikeouts.
Can we assume Preller would’ve traded for Skubal, had he been in Arnold’s position?
We cannot. Skubal can be eligible for free agency in November, and there’s no reason to believe the Brewers could’ve signed the Scott Boras client to a long-term deal.
Going large for rentals is easier when you’re confident about signing the player, as the Dodgers no doubt are with Skubal.
When Preller dealt future MLB All-Stars James Wood and CJ Abrams to get Juan Soto four summers ago, a big factor was that Soto would be under Padres control for up to three postseasons.
Similarly, it’s through 2029 that the Padres control closer Mason Miller, their big addition last summer.
Preller got Miller by trading prospect Leo De Vries. No other prospect traded last summer or this summer was ranked as highly by former scouts with ESPN and The Athletic.
Did the Brewers make a serious attempt to trade for Skubal?
“That’s my understanding,” manager Pat Murphy said Monday in San Diego. “There’s a lot to that. There’s just a lot to the whole thing. So, I just leave that alone. We’re trying to move on, do whatever we can do.”
Long ago, Preller hired Murphy as interim manager of the Padres.
Did seeing Preller deal for two pitchers this month surprise Murphy?
“Absolutely not, absolutely not,” he said. “I’m too familiar with their passion to win, and their passion to do things that others don’t expect.”
It’s not a slam dunk that Dodgers newcomer Skubal will hugely outperform Brewers addition May.
Milwaukee thrives often with veteran starting pitchers it got in a non-splashy trade or in lower-cost free agency.
When evaluating established stars, the Brewers also get a lot right, such as when Arnold and staff parted in recent years from shortstop Willy Adames, ace Corbin Burnes, closer Devin Williams and, most recently, ace Freddy Peralta.
Like the Padres, the Brewers own their niche.
Now we’ll see if either team can slay the dragon in October, provided the Padres get there.