Democrat Xavier Becerra holds a strong, 18-point lead against Republican Steve Hilton in California’s upcoming election for governor, according to a new Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll.
The poll found 55% of voters are backing Becerra compared to 37% supporting Hilton, while 7% remain undecided.
Berkeley IGS surveyed about 4,000 voters online in early August. The organization regularly surveys California voters on elections, ballot measures and other statewide issues.
Eric Schickler, a UC Berkeley political science professor and co-director of Berkeley IGS, said while the primary election was “chaotic and unpredictable” — with more than 60 candidates and a tight race between Becerra, Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer, who has since been eliminated — the general election is more typical.
“This is shaping up to be normal for California governor’s general election,” Schickler said. “And so that is a lot more predictable. This poll indicates it would take something really shocking and unexpected to prevent … Becerra winning fairly comfortably.”
The poll found a sharp partisan split between candidates, as Democrats overwhelmingly supported Becerra and Republicans overwhelmingly supported Hilton.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll, said although Becerra is a more moderate candidate than prior Democratic candidates like Steyer, he’s now garnered support from across the Democratic Party. According to the poll, more than 90% of progressives and 93% of Democratic Socialists are in favor of Becerra.
“He’s kind of been able to solidify his support among the different wings of the party,” Schickler said.
Almost all demographics of voters — across age, gender and race or ethnicity — are likely to be supporting Becerra.
If elected, Becerra would be California’s first Latino governor since 1875. But Schickler says that doesn’t seem to be playing a major role in his popularity.
“He polls about as well among Latinos, white voters, Black voters and Asian Americans as you would expect for a Democrat,” Schickler said. “We’re not seeing his status as the first Latino candidate at this stage playing a big role. It may well have helped him in the primary, but in the general election, in a state like California, Democrat versus Republican is just a defining feature.”
Becerra is also leading among voters without a party preference nearly 2-to-1. It’s a hurdle Hilton has to overcome if he wants to win.
“Hilton has a long row to hoe,” DiCamillo said. “He’s going to have to try to convince the no-party-preference voters or even some of the Democrats to get on his bandwagon. But that’s a tall order for a Republican in this state.”