College Football Picks: USC vs. San Jose State Best Bets

If you listen to pundits across the college football landscape, you’re going to hear a wide array of answers when it comes to who will finish atop the Big Ten by season’s end. Ohio State, Oregon and even Michigan are given serious consideration, but it seems that no one is talking about USC. 

Maybe it’s because the Trojans have one of the toughest conference schedules in the country. Or, it’s about a largely untested group of young receivers. All of these points are valid, but the team also enters with a new defensive coordinator, a returning star running back, and a Heisman candidate under center. 

They’ll also begin their schedule with four cream-puff opponents before facing Oregon, and the San Jose Spartans are expected to be their first victim. It’s going to be sizzling hot at Memorial Stadium, and the sun will be beating down with ferocity at the 12:00 p.m. PT kickoff. 

The Trojans are 9-0 lifetime against the Spartans and have whipped the non-conference tune-ups they’ve faced over the past few seasons. 

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USC vs. San Jose State Odds for Week 0

Spread: USC -38.5 (FanDuel), San Jose State +38.5 (DraftKings)

Total: Over 61.5 (BetRivers), Under 61.5 (BetMGM)

Moneyline: USC -9900 (DraftKings), San Jose State +2400 (DraftKings)

The bookmakers seem pretty sold on these numbers, as there’s been little movement since the game hit the board. This isn’t entirely surprising, since only a late-breaking injury or some other calamity creates much noise with the numbers early in the season. The ML on USC varies widely across the major sportsbooks, with some running as high as -10000.

USC vs. San Jose State Betting Picks for Week 0

The biggest question of this game isn’t about the eventual victor – it’s about the overall potency of USC’s offense, and how much rope they’ll give the Spartans in the second half when they empty the bench. 

San Jose State lost a lot of talent in the offseason, and the incoming portal list was scant. Coach Ken Niumatalolo has his work cut out for him, as inexperienced players can be found scattered all over the depth chart. Key to the team’s fortunes will be the play of Luke Weaver, who began his college career in the JUCO ranks and played at Hawaii last season, where he had a couple of impressive outings. Somehow, the Spartans always get the job done through the air, but this unit is as shaky as it’s ever been. 

Sacramento State has proven to be a funnel into San Jose State’s roster, and this year is no exception, with WR Jordan Anderson joining the fold. He’ll breathe some life into a wideout depth chart that was literally decimated, as Nick Marsh and Danny Scudero are gone. 

As difficult as it is to say, the offense isn’t the team’s biggest issue. Offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann likes to air it out, and they can get vertical quickly in the right scenario. The defense is another story entirely. 

The team had a pathetic pass rush last season, and portal losses at linebacker have made the situation much worse. Overall, teams lit up every level of the defense last season, with only three teams scoring less than 28 points against them. With little portal support and a lot of departures, both sides of the ball are in dire straits.

That’s great news for Lincoln Riley and the Trojans, who are brimming with confidence but will have some kinks to work out. With Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane off to the NFL, standout QB Jayden Maiava will have to contend with an almost entirely new set of receivers, with Tanook Hines as the only returnee, though his status is in question for the opener.

The team hoped for NC State transfer Terrell Anderson to make an immediate impact, but he will be held out of the contest for precautionary reasons. Despite the lack of experience in the wideout room, USC’s recent offensive pedigree is undeniable. They led the Big Ten in total offense, averaging 465.5 yards per game, well ahead of Indiana and just ahead of Oregon. 

While the passing game might take a slight hit, the Trojans have one of the best running back tandems in the country in Waymond Jordan and King Miller. Both backs should see their share of snaps, with Miller increasing his role in the second half. 

The defense is also stacked, and DC Gary Patterson will bring his wealth of experience at TCU, Texas, and Baylor to a squad with a history of slack discipline and letting teams back into games. The portal was very kind to the defense, with transfers like Penn State Edge Zuriah Fisher adding to an already potent front seven. The linebacking corps is also supreme. This is a huge number to hang, but it looks like the Spartans are just bad enough to convert this wager.

USC vs. San Jose State Expert Pick: USC -38.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

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USC vs. San Jose State Predictions for Week 0

I’ll say it again – I have no doubt whatsoever about the outcome of this matchup, but I’ve spent many an evening at Memorial Stadium praying for USC’s second-half defense in lopsided matchups. Lincoln Riley won’t hesitate to bring in the scrubs after halftime, and a few lucky passes from Weaver could blow apart this bet. One can only hope that the replacements are still good enough to stay ahead of this anemic defense and put up some fireworks of their own. Luckily, the Spartans’ defense is as bad as advertised, and while Maiava will have to adjust to his new targets, the run game should beat San Jose State into submission. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see both Jordan and Miller exceed 100 yards in this matchup, with Maiava dropping at least 250 passing yards of his own.

Prediction: USC 56, San Jose State 10

USC vs. San Jose State Player Props for Saturday, August 29

Waymond Jordan OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards (Sleeper)

I chased King Miller Overs throughout the week and landed on a good number before his total jumped on PrizePicks, but I think Jordan will get enough to clear it. Riley won’t take any chances as the star back works his way back from injury, but he appears 100 percent and good to go.

Luke Weaver OVER 33.5 Pass Attempts (PrizePicks)

The Spartans’ only path to success is to test USC’s secondary, since they won’t get anywhere running the ball. USC may force enough three-and-outs to make this number impossible, but I’m confident that San Jose State’s play ratio will favor the pass 60-40 at minimum.