As NHL training camps begin to kick off this week, we are still waiting for answers on some of the biggest questions remaining around the league. Among those questions are everything involving the Detroit Red Wings (the general manager, Dylan Larkin’s trade request and Simon Edvinsson’s contract), the Columbus Blue Jackets getting Adam Fantilli signed and whatever it is the Winnipeg Jets are going to do with starting goalie Connor Hellebuyck.
But we did have a couple of big contracts get signed this past week (Zeev Buium, Fraser Minten and Mark Stone), and one prominent player get waived due to salary cap concerns (Chris Kreider).
So let’s hand out some grades on all of those moves.
Do you know who has really loved the rising salary cap? A lot of the league’s young players, and especially after Leo Carlsson turned the contract dial up to 11 following his offer-sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers. Teams seem to be terrified of where contracts for young players could be going in the coming years, and are taking some big bets to get out in front of it right now.
We saw the Pittsburgh Penguins sign Ville Koivunen to an eight-year, $32 million contract this summer despite the fact he has less than 60 games in the NHL and has scored only two goals.
They see it as a low-risk move given what a $4 million salary cap hit could be in the coming seasons, and because the under-26 buyout rules would make it relatively easy to get out of if he flops.
It might be low-risk, but it’s still an expensive bet on an unproven player.
The Canucks signed one of their top young players, defenseman Zeev Buium, to an even riskier and bigger bet this past week when they agreed to an eight-year, $75 million extension that will kick in at the start of the 2027-28 season.
Buium has only played 76 regular season games in the NHL, scoring six goals with 26 points in that time. He’s younger than Koivunen, plays a different (and more valuable) position, and has shown more at the NHL level in a still small sample size.
But the contract is also worth twice as much.
The better comparisons here are probably the contracts signed in recent years by Buffalo Sabres defenseman Mattias Samuelsson and Ottawa Senators defenseman Jake Sanderson.
Samuelsson signed a seven-year, $30 million contract prior to the 2022-23 season after playing just 54 games in the NHL and scoring zero goals at the age of 21.
That contract was only worth 5.1 percent of the cap at the time of its signing.
Buium’s contract is worth over 8 percent of the cap.
While Samuelsson hadn’t shown much in the way of offensive upside, he had demonstrated an ability to be a strong defensive player that could help shut things down. Four years into it, the contract has aged well, and is only going to age better as the cap rises.
Sanderson’s contract might be the best possible comparison when taking into account age, production and money.
He signed an eight-year, $64 million deal with Ottawa after playing just one full season in the NHL. That contract accounted for 9 percent of the cap, which is slightly more expensive than Buium’s. Both players were the same age, had one full season under their belt, and had nearly identical goals, assists and points numbers.
Sanderson has quickly become one of the best defensemen in the NHL, should be on the short-list of Norris Trophy contenders this season and is one of the new faces of the Senators franchise.
The Canucks are obviously hoping Buium follows that path.
But just because some of the numbers were comparable on the surface does not mean they are the same player, or have the same upside.
Let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers.
The box score numbers are where the comparison ends.
While Buium was getting mostly sheltered minutes where he was consistently starting in the offensive zone, Sanderson was drawing significantly heavier defensive assignments and, for the most part, was handling them better.
His team scored more goals with him on the ice, had a better goal differential, was significantly better at creating chances and preventing chances and just seemed to do a better job pushing the pace of play.
That’s not to say Buium can’t develop that. It’s not to say he won’t be good, or that there is not value in a young defenseman that can create offense. It’s just saying they are not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison in terms of how they played their respective rookie seasons before signing their big contracts.
Sanderson played tougher minutes and handled them better. That was a significantly better sign for his development in the immediate future.
Buium was one of the key pieces Vancouver acquired from the Minnesota Wild in the Quinn Hughes trade, so they need him to be good. They clearly believe he will be based on the contract. I think there is a chance he can be. I am not fully bought in. Yet.
Contract grade: C+
If he is as good as the Canucks think he can be and will be, the contract likely becomes a below market deal in the future. But he has to get to that level.