Among baseball lifers, there’s a mystical belief that goes like this:
If you honor the baseball gods, the baseball gods someday will honor you. The World Series champion isn’t the best team as much as it’s the team the gods have chosen to reward.
October baseball serves up small-sample-size weirdness, fostering this mysticism.
A pair of examples:
Two decades ago, the St. Louis Cardinals went from a 83-79 regular season to receiving the trophy;
And three autumns ago, the Texas Rangers held a franchise-first trophy amid a cloud of pixie dust. Throughout October, a Texas bullpen that had amassed more blown saves than saves over a season mustered near-invincible relief.
Which brings us to the 2026 San Diego Padres.
This is the year it happens for them.
The Padres have done their fair share to command respect.
They’ve posted MLB’s best record (45-25) over a 70-game stretch capped by their playoff-berth clincher Thursday night at Dodger Stadium.
For several years running, the San Diego franchise has done right by the sport — overcoming small-market status to muster annual playoff contention and finish among MLB’s top 2-7 in attendance every year since 2021.
Manny Machado’s perseverance deserves higher notice, too.
The 34-year-old third baseman and Padres face continues to be available to his team for close to 162 games per year, while also handling a leadership role that I doubt came naturally to him when he joined the club in January 2019.
Amid Thursday night’s bubbly celebration in a tiny visitors’ locker room, Machado checked on seemingly everyone present affiliated with the team.
He embraced teammates, scouts, coaches, clubhouse staff, manager Craig Stammen and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.
It’s time.
Machado will get into his first World Series.
How? Let’s get into the particulars.
Against the Cubs, the Padres should open at home rather than on the road, in part due to Chicago’s late-season stumbles.
The disparity in the respective bullpens plays out. The Padres win the best-of-3 series, one year after losing in the same round at Wrigley Field.
It’s then on to Milwaukee, where the best-of-five Division Series opens Saturday. Against a Brewers club that posted MLB’s best record, the long ball makes the difference. That won’t be shocking. The Brewers sit 29th in home runs. The Padres, benefiting from summer surges by Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr., have climbed to 15th in home runs.
The Dodgers await in the National League Championship Series.
Here, the Padres will need the gods to intervene.
They do. L.A. doesn’t play up to its talent.
Pitching and defending well and hitting enough, the Padres win Game 7 at Dodger Stadium to reach the franchise’s third World Series.
Not asked to beat an American League champions as capable as the ‘84 Tigers or ‘98 Yankees, they get it done in another Game 7.
Now for the “inside baseball” breakdown.
The Padres will need to “bullpen” their way to the trophy. They boast four standout relievers in closer Mason Miller, lefty Adrian Morejón, lefty Yuki Matsui and rookie Bradgley Rodriguuz. Make it five if 35-year-old Jason Adam, who returned this week from a lengthy injury hiatus, regains form.
What does a Padres’ World Series celebration look like?
Ice is strapped onto the arms of Miller, Matsui, Rodriguez, Morejon and Adam — perhaps until the next spring training, whenever that is.
The only Padres starter who’s a strong candidate to pitch past the fifth inning is Michael King. While a few others could do it, notably Walker Buehler, Nick Pivetta and Robbie Ray, I doubt manager Craig Stammen and coaches will be eager to push them past the fifth inning in a close game.
Among National League relievers, the Padres stand first in ERA with Miller (an MLB-best1.30), second with Matsui (1.84), 12th with Rodriguez (2.38) and 22nd with Morejon (2.86).
Expertise in the run-prevention matchup game, supported by one of MLB’s top-tier defenses, is this team’s foremost strength.
The Padres can draw upon the matchup-intensive pitching approach the team adopted this summer to cope with a flimsy rotation.
Only now, the whole staff appears more capable.
Pivetta has pitched well since his return a month ago from the elbow ailment that shut him down in April. Though he may not be fully built up, he projects to log four to six innings in October.
The bullpen appears improved via Matsui’s rise and Morejon’s rare stamina.
Matsui is tied for MLB-best honors since July 26 with an ERA of 0.70. In that two–month span, the 5-foot-8, 30-year-old has a perfect strand rate.
Still averaging about 100 mph with sinkers and four-seamers, the 27-year-old Morejon has sustained high groundball and strikeouts even after soaring past career highs in innings pitched and pitches weeks ago.
Stammen, the reliever, has shown a knack for bullpen management. Like the Rangers’ Bruce Bochy three falls ago when the ex-Padres manager made the right calls with his relievers, Stammen will guide the Padres to their own franchise-first World Series title.