The NHL season is quickly approaching. To speed up the wait until the puck finally drops on the season, I’ll be previewing one team every day. I’ll be going one division at a time and publishing these in the order I think they’ll finish from first to worst. I’m currently going through the Pacific Division.
Last year’s finish: 5th in Pacific Division
Playoffs: No playoffs
Predicted finish: 3rd in Pacific Division
Last season couldn’t have gone any better for the San Jose Sharks.
The Sharks went from back-to-back last-place finishes to just narrowly missing out on the playoffs, Macklin Celebrini took the NHL (and the Olympics) by storm and the Sharks’ young talent looked like they belonged, even if there were some growing pains. Plus, while missing the playoffs hurt, San Jose ended up winning the lottery for the second overall pick. You’d take Ivar Stenberg over getting swept by the Avalanche every time.
After a busy offseason, San Jose believes it has the goods to make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2019. The Sharks still have a lot of growing to do, but they have the most upside of anyone in the division outside of Vegas and Edmonton. A lot has to go their way, however, and development in the NHL isn’t always as linear as we hope it’d be.
Two things can be true: the Sharks have a bright future, and Celebrini absolutely carried this team to playoff contention. Celebrini’s franchise-record 115 points last year were nearly twice as many as the next Shark, and San Jose didn’t have anyone else eclipse the 60-point mark. With Celebrini on the ice at five-on-five, the Sharks were a little over breakeven in expected goals and had a plus-17 goal differential. Without him, they had a minus-44 goal differential and a 44.6 percent expected goals share. Celebrini did have a 12.8 percent on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five last season, so regression is possible. But even if that comes down, Celebrini is such a force that it may not matter, and he’s only going to get better.
The Sharks have done the hard part, which is landing a franchise center. They just need to figure everything else out. Sometimes that means making hard decisions, like trading William Eklund to Ottawa for a first-round pick that became Keaton Verhoeff.
Will Smith is the next big name when it comes to San Jose’s young core. Smith was basically attached to Celebrini almost the entire season, and the two have been productive together. They’re constantly flashing high-end offensive talent, and their chemistry is obvious. Smith needs to contribute a lot more defensively, but he only turned 21 in March and had 59 points last season.
The Sharks are only going to go as far as Celebrini can take them, but Michael Misa, the second overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, is arguably San Jose’s second-most important player. Misa had an odd start to the year, splitting time between the Sharks and an AHL conditioning stint before playing for Team Canada at the world juniors. But after returning from the world juniors and regularly playing with the Sharks, Misa started to figure things out. If Misa can play like anything resembling a second-line center this year and give opponents someone not named Celebrini to worry about, that’s a great start for San Jose.
The other X factor for the Sharks this year is goaltender Yaroslav Askarov. San Jose paid a premium to acquire him a couple years ago, sending a first-round pick and more to Nashville. After spending the three previous seasons in the AHL with sporadic NHL time, Askarov had his first full season in the NHL last year. While the Sharks’ defensive play in front of him left a lot of room for improvement, Askarov struggled last season, and his minus-14.6 goals saved above expected was the sixth-worst in the league. Askarov has the raw skills to turn things around, and he’s only 24. The Sharks really need him to put it together, as backup Alex Nedeljkovic is likely only going to be as good as the team in front of him.
Celebrini and Smith get a lot of the attention, but the time to buy Igor Chernyshov stocks is now. Chernyshov dominated the OHL two years ago, played well in the AHL last year and flashed in his NHL opportunities, scoring 19 points in 28 games last year. Chernyshov did a good job of driving play in a small sample size last year, and he’s an intriguing breakout candidate this year.
From there, San Jose’s forward group is a fun blend of young players and proven veterans. If everything comes together, the Sharks could potentially be able to roll four productive lines.
Stenberg, the second overall pick in this year’s draft, could make an immediate impact after an incredible draft season playing against men in Sweden. Tyler Toffoli is starting to slow down, but he’s still a threat on the power play. New signing Mason Marchment and Kiefer Sherwood give the Sharks’ depth some grit without compromising on skill. Collin Graf had 46 points last year while mostly playing with Celebrini and Smith, but can he shoot 17.8 percent again? Can he be productive away from those two?
San Jose also overhauled its blueline. The Sharks bought low on Michael Kesselring after a rough one-year stint in Buffalo. If he can get back to where he was in Utah two years ago, that’s a good start for an otherwise rough-looking blueline. San Jose’s biggest moves, though, were trading for Darnell Nurse and signing Jacob Trouba, adding a lot of size but also a lot of money ($17.5 million combined for the next four seasons). Nurse should still be able to hold down a second-pairing spot, but Trouba is the real concern. Trouba really only looked good in Anaheim when playing with Jackson LaCombe, and the Sharks don’t have anyone of his caliber. Dmitry Orlov did what he could last year, but San Jose still doesn’t have a top-pairing defender.
We’ll see about Sam Dickinson, a 2024 first-round pick, and Luca Cagnoni. Dickinson had a trial by fire last year as a 19-year-old. He had nothing left to prove at the junior level, but he also wasn’t old enough to be eligible for the AHL. Dickinson wasn’t spectacular last season, but he survived and can build off it. Cagnoni is really undersized at just 5-foot-9, but he’s been productive at every level he’s played at.
The Sharks were the league’s most fun team last year, and that shouldn’t change this year. The Pacific Division is weak enough that they could fairly easily finish third in the division and finally make it back to the playoffs. If Celebrini continues to develop into an all-world player and at least some of the Sharks’ wealth of young talent behind him takes a step forward, the Sharks could be a problem as soon as this year. But even if the playoff drought lasts another year, the future is ridiculously bright in San Jose.