This shouldn’t be happening, right?

This is the Anaheim Ducks we’re talking about. They’ve missed the playoffs for seven straight seasons. They were the third-worst goal-scoring team in the NHL last season and the fourth-worst defensive team. They were dead last on the power play last season with the worst penalty kill over the last three seasons.

Sure, they’ve got some young players looking to take a step and a new coach to hopefully uncork this group, but this? Nobody expected this.

Check your standings, and sure enough, those Ducks hold the second-best record in the NHL with the highest goals-per-game in the league and 20-year-old Leo Carlsson tied for second in points.

Anaheim (11-3-1, 23 points) holds a league-best seven-game winning streak over contenders from both conferences heading into tonight’s nationally televised game (TNT, 6:30 p.m. Pacific) against the league’s current No. 1 team–the Colorado Avalanche (10-1-5, 25 points)–with eyes on sitting in that top spot by night’s end.

This is indeed happening. It is real, and it is sustainable.

When making the final conclusions on the outlook for the Ducks in The Sporting Tribune’s season preview, most statistical models had Anaheim outside of the picture once again, but there was hope in the things that those algorithms simply can’t factor in:

There is no number available to quantify how many goals or standings points going from Greg Cronin to Joel Quenneville is actually worth. They can’t account for how big of a leap Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier or Mason McTavish could take. They can’t assume that the power play will click into place, Chris Kreider has a bounce-back season or that Lukáš Dostál plays to the heights of last season.

Seems like that writer knew a thing or two (*wink*) but again, nobody could predict everything that has swung in Anaheim’s favor through these first 15 games to make the Ducks “contenders for real,” as Carlsson said on Sunday.

Each one of those hopeful preview notes has seemingly been part of this successful soup, so let’s go through each one:

Based on resume alone, everyone figured Quenneville would be an upgrade, but with any new coach, there would probably be a learning curve. While Anaheim still has some areas to label a work in progress, it’s Quenneville’s Day One tenant that may have been the most impactful.

At his introductory press conference in May and on the first day of training camp in September, Quenneville said he wanted the Ducks to be “the hardest-working team in the league.” That started with the fast-paced practice structure each and every day, and that has continued into the season.

These Ducks forecheck. Carlsson scored two goals on Saturday in Vegas spurred by his own and his linemates’ tenacious forecheck. Beckett Sennecke, 19 years old and tied for the rookie goals lead, scored twice on Sunday against Winnipeg thanks to two near-perfect puck retrieval sequences.

And that’s just the first two lines. The bottom-six is all hard work.

That determined style has also opened up the offensive game leading to those NHL-high scoring numbers, which aren’t smoke and mirrors. In all situations, the Ducks have an NHL-high 4.07 goals per game with a 3.57 expected goals for per game, per Natural Stat Trick. Higher than expected, yes, but not that much higher than their sixth-best xGF.

Quenneville is also letting the team play through its mistakes and find its pace. Anaheim has given up the first goal in nine of these first 15 games, but the Ducks have built up their game period after period with a 5-3-1 record when allowing the opening goal.

Carlsson said the team is playing with “a little more freedom.” Something no one would have said during the Greg Cronin era.

Leo Carlsson and the Youth Brigade

The 20-year-old Swede is the one grabbing headlines right now with a 10-game point streak and NHL Third Star of the Week honors, which have garnered some early MVP attention for the Hart Trophy.

Carlsson is emblematic of that second preview note. It’s hard to predict how much improvement young players will actually make, and this is beyond even the optimistic expectations.

“That was something that we talked about before the season, for us as the young guys to take a step,” Carlsson said. “My third season, Beckett’s first few games, but me, Cutter (Gauthier), Mac (Mason McTavish) and those guys. It’s just about time, honestly.”

Many said a season of 60+ points would be good work for Carlsson, and 80 points would be outstanding. Well, with 25 points in 15 games, he’s currently on a 136-point pace, which would be bonkers. 

With an expected goal share at 56.67% at five-on-five and actual goal share at 63.16%, Carlsson is the Ducks’ franchise player. (That’s not even mentioning his power play points, two shorthanded goals and three-on-three overtime prowess.)

After a 20-goal rookie campaign, 21-year-old Gauthier would’ve looked real good for a 30-goal season, but now, the NHL’s leader in shots-per-game is on a 60-goal pace. Gauthier is tied for fourth in the league with 11 goals and is third in the league in five-on-five points.

Gauthier is the leading scorer of the Ducks’ “Kid Line” centered by McTavish with Sennecke on the other wing. That trio–average age of 20.6 years old–has the fourth-best expected goals share in the NHL among lines with 100 minutes played at 62%, according to MoneyPuck.

Chris Kreider and the Power Play

Anaheim’s power play has been anemic for at least half a decade with last year’s unit holding the third-worst conversion rate of the salary cap era (11.8%). Assistant coach Jay Woodcroft has brought a more dynamic approach to the extra-man unit, and it’s been more than helped by Kreider’s netfront presence.

The former New York Ranger scored nine goals in his first nine games with the Ducks, including five on the power play. Of his 12 points in 11 games played, Kreider has seven power play points, including two assists on Leo Carlsson goals on Sunday. The 34-year-old scored 22 goals and 30 points last season in 68 games.

And the power play? Up to a robust 23.7% conversion rate, ninth-best in the NHL.

Lukáš Dostál and the Improving Defensive Zone

Dostál is an all-world goalie once again. After being the NHL’s First Star of the Week two weeks ago, the 25-year-old is on a career-high six-game winning streak and is third in the league in goals saved above expected–9.6 GSAx in 12 starts. Dostál is second in the NHL with eight wins and holds a .908 save percentage and 2.66 goals against average, which would both be career bests.

Against the run of positives, Dostál has covered up the Ducks worst trait so far in their defensive numbers. Anaheim is allowing a league-worst 3.15 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which is higher than last season’s league-worst 2.96 xGA/60.

However, as the Ducks continue to settle into Quenneville’s newly instituted zone defensive scheme, Anaheim is improving. Over the last six games, the Ducks posted a 2.67 xGA/60, and over the last four games, it’s at 2.42 GA/60.

Each opponent in this seven-game winning streak has brought a new test for the Ducks, a new plateau to reach. From sweeping two-time defending champion Florida, to outpacing Western finalist Dallas, to hanging tight with Pacific Division champion Vegas, to shutting down Presidents Trophy winner Winnipeg, Anaheim has stepped up to prove itself each and every night.

This Colorado team and NHL leading scorer Nathan MacKinnon is the latest and biggest of these tests. The Ducks have shown they’re for real, but Tuesday night may give a glimpse to just how high that contending ceiling is.