In a competitive North County congressional race seen as key to control of Congress, Democrat Marni von Wilpert has widened her lead over Republican Jim Desmond, a new San Diego Union-Tribune poll finds as early voting begins in the midterm election.
Von Wilpert, a San Diego City Council member, now leads Desmond, a county supervisor, 47% to 38% among likely voters — a 9-point lead, up from 3 points last month — as voters begin to fill out and return their ballots.
The growing advantage for the Democrat in the open race for the redrawn 48th Congressional District comes as Democrats pull ahead in competitive races around the country, and as Donald Trump’s historically unpopular presidency weighs on Republicans.
It also comes as voters show growing attention to the election and awareness of the race in the 48th District, with control of both chambers of Congress at stake.
Most voters in the pivotal district, which stretches from Escondido and Oceanside north into Riverside County, now say they’re following the election very closely, up from 45% about a month earlier. And while the same share of voters — two-thirds — say they’re at least somewhat familiar with their local congressional race, more now say they’re very familiar with it.
The poll’s results suggest the Democrat is outperforming her party’s 5-point registration advantage, helped by outsized support from independent voters.
Likely voters who aren’t registered with either the Republican or Democratic party appear to favor Von Wilpert by a wide margin, the poll suggests. If the election were held today, 47% say they would vote for Von Wilpert and 25% for Desmond; another 28% say they’re undecided.
Still, both candidates are locked in a statistical tie: The poll, conducted Oct. 1-7 by SurveyUSA for the Union-Tribune and Channel 10 News, has a credibility interval of about 5 percentage points.
Meanwhile, voters are souring even further on Trump.
Sixty-one percent of likely voters in the district disapprove of the job Trump is doing, up from 55% a month earlier. Seventy-one percent disapprove of Congress, up from 65%. Sixty percent say the same of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, up from 53%, and 63% disapprove of the war in Iran, up from 61%.
Today, just a third of voters in the district approve of Trump, leaving him 28 points underwater — far deeper than the 16-point spread polls found there in September and May, and deeper than the latest national polling average reported Thursday by The New York Times.
It isn’t just Democrats in the 48th District who disapprove of Trump’s presidency. More than three-quarters of voters who aren’t registered as either Democrats or Republicans disapprove, while only 19% approve. Similar shares disapprove of ICE and the Iran war, two hallmarks of his presidency.
The 48th Congressional District was redrawn last year to be more favorable to Democrats, after California voters approved a partisan redistricting plan as part of a gerrymandering arms race begun with a GOP-led redraw in Texas.
In California, the move put several former Republican-leaning seats in play for Democrats — including the 48th, which shifted north to include the Democratic stronghold of Palm Springs.
Incumbent Rep. Darrell Issa said he would retire, and a dozen candidates piled into the race to succeed him — with Desmond and von Wilpert ultimately advancing from a crowded primary.