Summary
San Francisco tops DVOA through five weeks after Seahawks win: SF holds No. 1/2 lead in total DVOA, staying ahead of Jacksonville and widening the gap.
49ers’ passing game is the key unit in 2026 DVOA success: Passing efficiency remains SF’s strongest facet, with top-10 all-time offense marks reinforced by early-season performance.
1-4 teams Houston and Tampa Bay climb in 1-4 DVOA rankings after Week 5: HOU and TB jump to 11th and 12th in 1-4 DVOA, driven by recent wins and opponent adjustments.
The San Francisco 49ers keep rolling and stay on top of the DVOA ratings with their 32-29 win over the Seattle Seahawks this week. In fact, with No. 2 Jacksonville playing a close game against the Eagles, the 49ers opened up an even larger lead despite dropping in DVOA from last week. The 49ers are ahead of the Jaguars by more than 20 percentage points. The gap between the 49ers and Jaguars is larger than the gap between the Jaguars and the No. 12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. (Yes, the 1-4 Buccaneers are 12th, but we’ll get to that.)
The 49ers are now the seventh-best team in DVOA history through five games.
BEST TOTAL DVOA THROUGH 5 GAMES, 1977-2026
YEAR
TEAM
W-L
DVOA
1991
WAS
5-0
67.4%
2007
NE
5-0
65.2%
1999
STL
5-0
60.6%
2006
CHI
5-0
55.3%
2019
NE
5-0
53.4%
1977
DAL
5-0
53.0%
2026
SF
5-0
52.2%
2013
DEN
5-0
51.8%
2009
NO
5-0
51.3%
2015
NE
5-0
51.2%
2023
SF
5-0
51.0%
2015
ARI
4-1
50.7%
1996
GB
4-1
50.2%
The best unit for the 49ers has been the passing game. Before last night, the 49ers were one of the top 10 pass offenses since 1977. Then the Rams got run up on by the Buffalo Bills and that changed opponent adjustments and dropped the 49ers down a bit. But I was going to write about this already so we’ll still write about it. Here’s the list of the top pass offenses through five games.
BEST PASS OFFENSE DVOA THROUGH 5 GAMES, 1977-2026
YEAR
TEAM
W-L
DVOA
1984
MIA
5-0
90.7%
1979
BUF
3-2
88.7%
2013
DEN
5-0
85.4%
1998
DEN
5-0
82.3%
1999
WAS
4-1
81.9%
2023
SF
5-0
78.4%
1990
NYG
5-0
76.0%
2007
NE
5-0
73.9%
1980
PIT
4-1
73.5%
1999
STL
5-0
72.4%
2018
KC
5-0
71.4%
2018
LAR
5-0
71.2%
2002
KC
3-2
70.8%
2026
SF
5-0
70.8%
OK, so Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, John Elway, sure. The 49ers from a couple years ago. The 16-0 Patriots. I’ve written about the 1999 Redskins and their crazy start a few times. But what the hell are Joe Ferguson and the 7-9 1979 Buffalo Bills doing here?
The Bills haven’t appeared on these lists in earlier weeks because they lost in Week 1 9-7 to Miami. But then over the next four games, Joe Ferguson went insane. You have to understand the passing environment of 1979 and what happens when we normalize DVOA to each year’s averages. The Bills won in Week 2 51-24. They only scored 19 points in a Week 3 loss but they won in Week 4 46-31 and Week 5 31-13.
The average quarterback in 1979 completed 54.1% of passes for 6.9 yards per attempt. In a four-game span, the NFL average was 4.8 touchdowns and 5.3 interceptions.
Joe Ferguson in Weeks 2-5 of 1979 completed 63.0% of passes for a ridiculous 11.9 yards per attempt. He threw 10 touchdown passes with one interception. I can’t even imagine what his average depth of target was compared to quarterbacks today. They threw the ball downfield in 1979.
Anyway, the Bills offense totally calmed down after that. In fact, they didn’t score more than two touchdowns in a game the rest of the season and they finished the year only 10th in pass offense DVOA.
Enough of that digression, let’s get back to 2026. The Bills move up to third past the bye week Chiefs. The Bengals go up six spots from 11th to fifth after beating Miami, but that’s more about their past opponent adjustments since Houston, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh all had very good weeks. Their division rivals in Baltimore are behind them in sixth place.
Minnesota moves up three spots to seventh. The Vikings are No. 1 in defense and special teams and moved up all the way to 30th on offense.
Then we go Seattle, Carolina and the Rams. The Rams now have -15.3% special teams DVOA which would be the worst in history over a full season. Looking at just the first five games, it ranks 11th worst since 1977.
A big surprise is Houston and Tampa Bay ranking 11th and 12th at 1-4. Last week, they were two of the best 0-4 teams ever by DVOA. Then Houston had 67.0% DVOA for a win over Tennessee and Tampa Bay had 38.0% DVOA for a win over Dallas. They move up from 17th and 18th to 11th and 12th. Houston is now the fourth-best 1-4 team and the Buccaneers are sixth.
BEST 1-4 TEAMS BY DVOA, 1977-2026
YEAR
TEAM
W-L
DVOA
RK
FINAL
W-L
FINAL
DVOA
FINAL
RK
2000
NE
1-4
16.7%
9
5-11
-7.4%
22
2011
MIN
1-4
13.0%
9
3-13
-18.9%
28
1987
CIN
1-4
11.4%
7
3-9
-3.8%
18
2026
HOU
1-4
10.7%
11
—
—
—
2024
CIN
1-4
9.0%
12
9-8
6.8%
14
2026
TB
1-4
9.1%
12
—
—
—
2003
NYJ
1-4
7.6%
11
6-10
1.0%
15
1992
DET
1-4
6.3%
12
5-11
-10.9%
18
2016
SD
1-4
6.2%
10
5-11
-0.5%
17
1999
NO
1-4
4.8%
12
3-13
-33.7%
30
1990
MIN
1-4
3.9%
11
6-10
2.3%
14
2004
BUF
1-4
2.2%
14
9-7
28.1%
3
A lot of these teams played worse the rest of the season. That’s often what happens when you start 1-4; you start playing younger guys, seeing what you have on the roster, and you play down to your record even if your underlying play-by-play stats in the first few weeks were pretty good.
Finally, you may notice that there are a few teams with winning records down at the bottom of our rankings. The Bears drop from eighth to 19th after the Packers clobbered them 31-7. Obviously, there’s a bit of a Tyson Bagent asterisk on that one. The Raiders drop from 12th to 25th after losing to the Patriots 45-17. The 3-2 Browns and 3-1-1 Giants were already low in DVOA but drop even further this week. (DVOA has Washington ahead of the Giants for their 27-27 tie.)
* * * * *
These are the FTN DVOA and DAVE ratings through five weeks of 2026. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) Opponent adjustments are currently at 50% of their final strength.
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 50% preseason forecast for offense and 77% preseason forecast for defense and special teams. (For teams with four games, 59% and 84%, respectively.)
RK
TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
TOTAL
DAVE
RK
W-L
OFF.
DVOA
OFF.
RK
DEF.
DVOA
DEF.
RK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RK
1
SF
52.2%
1
24.7%
1
5-0
36.4%
1
-18.6%
4
-2.8%
24
2
JAX
30.1%
2
11.6%
7
4-1
12.7%
8
-18.9%
3
-1.5%
20
3
BUF
24.2%
4
21.0%
3
4-1
33.2%
2
13.8%
27
4.8%
4
4
KC
21.9%
3
14.2%
5
4-0
18.4%
4
-2.9%
15
0.6%
15
5
CIN
21.1%
11
9.2%
9
3-2
14.9%
7
-3.4%
14
2.8%
11
6
BAL
20.6%
5
11.5%
8
4-1
20.0%
3
-2.1%
16
-1.6%
21
7
MIN
19.5%
10
2.5%
14
5-0
-18.5%
30
-24.6%
1
13.3%
1
8
SEA
16.4%
6
15.9%
4
3-2
-9.9%
22
-23.2%
2
3.1%
8
9
CAR
13.0%
9
-1.3%
19
2-2
10.7%
9
2.2%
21
4.5%
5
10
LAR
10.8%
7
21.1%
2
2-3
17.4%
6
-8.8%
7
-15.3%
32
11
HOU
10.7%
17
13.3%
6
1-4
4.9%
11
-8.1%
9
-2.3%
22
12
TB
9.1%
18
1.9%
15
1-4
-4.0%
18
-10.0%
5
3.0%
9
13
NE
6.9%
26
5.4%
11
3-2
0.0%
15
-9.4%
6
-2.5%
23
14
PIT
4.8%
21
0.5%
16
3-2
3.9%
12
-3.8%
13
-2.9%
25
15
DET
3.9%
16
9.1%
10
3-2
10.1%
10
10.5%
25
4.2%
6
16
DEN
1.7%
14
4.4%
13
3-2
-6.4%
19
-6.3%
10
1.8%
12
RK
TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
TOTAL
DAVE
RK
W-L
OFF.
DVOA
OFF.
RK
DEF.
DVOA
DEF.
RK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RK
17
GB
-0.3%
27
-2.5%
21
3-2
-7.3%
21
-8.1%
8
-1.2%
17
18
ATL
-2.2%
15
-10.8%
25
2-3
-3.9%
17
-5.3%
12
-3.6%
27
19
CHI
-2.6%
8
-2.1%
20
3-2
1.0%
14
2.2%
20
-1.4%
18
20
DAL
-3.5%
13
5.2%
12
2-3
17.9%
5
24.3%
32
2.9%
10
21
IND
-6.5%
20
-0.1%
17
2-3
-7.1%
20
10.2%
24
10.7%
2
22
NYJ
-9.6%
25
-11.0%
26
2-3
-10.0%
23
-0.9%
17
-0.5%
16
23
PHI
-10.2%
22
-0.4%
18
2-3
-13.9%
26
0.3%
19
4.0%
7
24
ARI
-11.2%
19
-7.1%
22
1-4
1.4%
13
14.3%
28
1.7%
13
25
LV
-11.5%
12
-10.4%
24
3-2
-1.8%
16
10.8%
26
1.1%
14
26
CLE
-13.5%
24
-21.2%
29
3-2
-17.8%
28
-5.6%
11
-1.4%
19
27
NYG
-17.7%
23
-15.5%
28
3-1-1
-18.0%
29
6.0%
23
6.2%
3
28
WAS
-20.6%
28
-9.1%
23
1-3-1
-11.2%
24
4.6%
22
-4.8%
30
29
LAC
-30.8%
31
-13.0%
27
0-5
-26.9%
32
-0.5%
18
-4.4%
28
30
NO
-37.5%
30
-22.6%
31
1-4
-13.8%
25
20.2%
31
-3.5%
26
31
TEN
-39.0%
29
-22.0%
30
0-5
-17.5%
27
16.9%
30
-4.6%
29
32
MIA
-47.1%
32
-25.8%
32
0-5
-23.1%
31
15.1%
29
-8.9%
31