Those losses are also unevenly distributed, with some regions, communities and industries facing much greater risks than others. Inland counties in the Central Valley, Inland Empire and southeastern desert face disproportionate economic burdens. Low-income households, outdoor workers, tribal and rural communities, older adults, young children and people with pre-existing conditions are among those most vulnerable to climate-related harms.
Drawing on published research, the report brings together estimates of current climate-related costs and projections of how those costs may grow. Among the findings:
Extreme heat is projected to take a growing toll on health. By 2050, California could see about 560 additional heat-related deaths each year, representing roughly $7.7 billion in annual economic impact.
Wildfire smoke carries even larger projected health costs. By 2050, under a high-warming scenario, smoke exposure is projected to cause about 5,060 additional deaths in California each year, representing about $68.8 billion annually.
Heat is expected to cut into working hours. By 2050, workers in highly exposed sectors could lose 5 to 10 work hours a year in the Central Valley and 15 to 20 hours a year in southeastern California.
Drought threatens billions in agricultural losses. By the early 2040s, drought-related water shortages could cause $2.7 billion to $5.1 billion in direct agricultural losses each year.
Sea-level rise puts billions in property at risk. Roughly 20 inches of sea-level rise, which could occur as soon as 2050, could inundate an estimated $17.9 billion worth of residential and commercial buildings statewide.
What climate change means for household budgets
For households, those broader economic impacts can become very personal: higher food, energy and water costs; rising insurance premiums; health expenses; and the cost of making homes more resilient to heat and wildfire. A national estimate cited by the researchers puts lifetime climate-related costs for an American born in 2024 at $500,000 to $1 million.
California’s insurance market offers one example of how those pressures are already showing up. The amount of property insured through the California FAIR Plan, the state’s insurer of last resort, grew from about $50 billion in insured exposure in 2018 to roughly $750 billion as of March 2026.
Rather than a single bottom-line figure, the report brings together evidence to show where climate change is taking the greatest economic toll – and on whom.
“Understanding where the impacts are greatest and who is most exposed can help us make better decisions about where to focus our efforts,” said Garg, associate professor of economics at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. “That’s useful for policymakers, but also for communities and the public trying to prepare for what’s ahead.”
A closer look at San Diego
Among several regionally focused component reports, Scripps Oceanography climate scientists Julie Kalansky and Tom Corringham led an analysis of San Diego County’s climate future in the “San Diego Regional Report.”