Just after Halloween, a race that haunts District 4 reaches its climax on Nov. 3. One of the most critical supervisorial contests in Orange County, the election pits Buena Park Mayor Connor Traut, a Democrat, against Orange County Board of Education Trustee Tim Shaw, a Republican. At stake is a district covering Brea, Buena Park, Fullerton, Placentia, La Habra, Stanton, and portions of Anaheim

Starting last March, when the SCNG Editorial Board began interviewing state and local candidates for the June 2 primary, I always asked: How will high energy prices from the war with Iran affect your government budget?

Matters have only gotten worse since then. Globally, Brent crude is $116 per barrel, up from $72 before the war. The average OC price for regular gas is $6.02 a gallon. Diesel is $8.37. 

Nationally, NerdWallet reported Oct. 22, “Mortgage Rates Remain Above 7% in a Stalled Housing Market.” Auto Wire reported car repossessions in 2026 are projected to hit 3.08 million, the highest since 3.2 million in 2009 during the Great Recession. 

It could get worse. The New York Times headlined Oct. 21, “U.S. and Israel Draw Up Plans for Renewed Strikes on Iran After Elections.”

The question: Will a candidate protect the people’s interests, or those of special interests influencing elections with massive campaign contributions? 

Shaw is a proven tax fighter who signed the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association’s Pledge to Stand Up for Taxpayers and was endorsed by the Orange County Taxpayers Association PAC.

In 2024, Traut voted to put on the ballot Measure R, a one-cent sales tax increase. It passed.

In modern elections, expenditures by lobby groups are the key to financing. A flyer sent out to voters by “Connor Traut for Supervisor 2026” reads: “Connor Traut’s AGENDA: … Lower Taxes.” The flyer is festooned with “LAW ENFORCEMENT SUPPORTS … Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs” and a sheriff’s badge, making it seem official.

The California Form 496 financial disclosures for the AOCDS show $817,000 spent for Traut and $691,000 from the Orange County Professional Firefighters Association Local 3631 PAC.

My July 9 column detailed the county’s financial problems, largely caused by the current board taking control of county investments from Treasurer-Tax Collector Shari Freidenrich due to a personnel dispute in her department. In our interviews, Traut supported that move, while Shaw said he would give her back that authority.

On June 2, voters gave their verdict: Freidenrich was reelected with 71%.

Defying the voters’ will, the board still has not returned the portfolio to her. Meanwhile, she told me, the investments’ net asset value “is now down to .9927.” That means every dollar invested currently is worth about 99.27 cents if the holdings were valued at today’s market prices.“And the portfolio has swung from an unrealized gain of approximately $50 million to an unrealized loss of over $120 million as of Aug. 31. The pooled funds are underperforming and earning lower interest income as current market yields are significantly higher than the portfolio yields.”

This mistake “puts significantly more pressure on county and school finances due to this significant opportunity loss resulting from betting big in 2025 and early in 2026 that interest rates would drop, as approximately 43% of the portfolio is invested in three-to-five-year maturities.”

The board was warned. In a March 2 Register op-ed, former Supervisor John Moorlach wrote the county was in a “similar situation” to just before the 1994 county bankruptcy, when back then the county was “plundering and gambling on the direction of interest rates.” Moorlach famously gave a similar warning in 1994 when he lost an election for treasurer-tax collector, then was appointed to that position to clean up the bankruptcy mess.

Shaw obviously is the better choice over Traut to return the county to fiscal common sense. The unions should realize, if the county goes bankrupt again, their lucrative pensions will not be protected because federal bankruptcy courts can supersede state laws. See: Detroit 2013.

And just try putting a Traut-backed tax increase on the ballot. After the 1994 bankruptcy, we hammered the Measure R tax increase into the surf, 61% to 39%.

John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board