Every week this time of year, Major League Soccer issues “playoff scenarios” — a bullet-point list of what it takes for a team to clinch a postseason berth that week.

San Diego FC is not included on this week’s list, but we’ll make it simple for you:

SDFC will make the playoffs if it beats the Seattle Sounders on Saturday night at Snapdragon Stadium …

… and then wins … 

… and then wins again … 

… and then wins again. 

It’s getting late in the regular season, and the only way for SDFC to climb from 12th place to ninth in the Western Conference standings and make the playoffs is to start winning. Results like last week, when SDFC played to two ties, won’t get it done.

“We have four games left,” star striker Anders Dreyer said, “and we will put everything together as good as possible and try to get as many points as possible to try to get into playoff position.”

Simply winning an MLS match, something SDFC has not done since (yes) Aug. 29, is hard enough.

Winning four in a row — or even, say, three of four — will take a run of good form that’s been mostly lacking in 2026.

The top nine finishers in the Western Conference earn playoff spots. Five teams have already clinched spots, and two more teams — LAFC and the Sounders — can punch their tickets as soon as Saturday. (Seattle would need to beat SDFC and get losses or draws from Minnesota, Salt Lake, the Galaxy and Portland.)

The Colorado Rapids (39 standings points) currently hold the ninth and final playoff spot, with Salt Lake City (36 points) within striking distance.

SDFC sits in a three-way tie with Portland and Minnesota United with 34 points, but Seattle holds the tiebreaker because it has more regular-season wins (nine) than San Diego (eight). The proliferation of ties — SDFC has played to a draw 10 times, including a 3-3 tie with the Houston Dynamo and 2-2 tie with the LA Galaxy last week — complicates the playoff math.

Though they’ve been fit to be tied lately, SDFC is playing better soccer.

MLS’ expected goals metric said SDFC should have beaten the Dynamo, 3.3 goals to 0.9 goals, in last week’s draw. SDFC outplayed the Galaxy three nights later, holding an expected-goals lead of 2.6 goals to 0.6.

“As a team, I think the last couple games — especially the last one — we’re getting back to really close to our best. And I think as a group, we’re starting to hit form,” coach Mikey Varas said. “We have 100% belief and conviction … that we can win every game that we play. All we’ve got to do now — we’ve got to forget about what could be and focus on what’s ahead of us.”

For now, that means beating a Seattle team that’s traditionally been tough to beat. SDFC is 1-1-1 in three all-time matches against the Sounders, tying their most recent match 1-1 in May.

On Saturday, a tie won’t be good enough.

“It’s always tough games against Seattle,” Dreyer said. “It’s a good opponent; it’s a team where we have to work very hard to earn three points.”

San Diego FC’s playoff chase

Nine Major League Soccer teams are battling for the final four spots in the Western Conference playoffs. Here’s a look at each team, its record and remaining opponents:

LAFC (12-9-10, 46 points)

Playoff position: Currently in sixth place; the top nine teams make the playoffs.

Remaining games: vs. LA Galaxy and Minnesota United, at Seattle Sounders

Seattle Sounders (11-10-9, 42 points)

Playoff position: Currently in seventh place.

Remaining games: at SDFC, vs. Houston Dynamo, at Vancouver Whitecaps, vs. LAFC

LA Galaxy (10-11-10, 40 points)

Playoff position: Currently in eighth place.

Remaining games: at LAFC, vs. Austin FC, at Real Salt Lake

Colorado Rapids (11-13-6, 39 points)

Playoff position: Currently in ninth place; would make the playoffs if the season ended today.

Remaining games: vs. Vancouver Whitecaps, at San Jose Earthquakes, vs. Chicago Fire, at FC Dallas

Real Salt Lake (10-14-6, 36 points)

Playoff position: In 10th place; would miss the playoffs if the season ended today.

Remaining games: vs. St. Louis SC, at Austin FC, at San Jose Earthquakes, vs. LA Galaxy

Portland Timbers (9-14-7, 34 points)

Playoff position: Two points out of the final playoff spot.

Remaining games: vs. Charlotte FC, at. St. Louis City SC, vs. Houston Dynamo, at Austin FC

San Diego FC (8-12-10, 34 points)

Playoff position: Three points out of the final playoff spot; Portland currently owns the tiebreaker over SDFC by virtue of most wins.

Remaining games: vs. Seattle Sounders, at Vancouver Whitecaps, at St. Louis City SC, vs. Sporting Kansas City

Minnesota United (8-12-10, 34 points)

Playoff position: Four points out of the final playoff spot; SDFC currently owns the second tiebreaker over Minnesota by virtue of goal differential.

Remaining games: at Houston Dynamo, vs. Sporting Kansas City, at LAFC, vs. San Jose Earthquakes

Austin FC (7-13-10, 31 points)

Playoff position: Eight points out of the final playoff spot.

Remaining games: at Sporting Kansas City, vs. Real Salt Lake, at LA Galaxy, vs. Portland Timbers