The Edmonton Oilers sent rookie winger Ike Howard to the AHL Bakersfield Condors on Friday. He’s possibly the most talented pure shooter on an Oilers AHL roster since Jordan Eberle scored 25 goals in 34 games for the 2012-13 Oklahoma City Barons. The time in the minors will be used to make Howard a more complete player, but questions remain about his deployment in the AHL and his future with the NHL team.

Will he find success? What does he need to improve? What should be expected? When will Howard return to Edmonton? Here’s a look.

What does success look like? 

Although Eberle’s impressive scoring isn’t the all-time minor league scoring feat for an Oilers prospect (Miro Satan scored 24 in 25 games for the Cape Breton Oilers in 1994-95), it’s probably an unattainable level of scoring for Howard. Several things could contribute: The current Condors lineup has some issues, including too much time on the penalty kill and a below-average defensive group.

Howard needs to find chemistry with one of the Condors’ centres. The Oilers organization always signs several capable centres to make certain young prospect wingers have an opportunity to flourish.

The Condors have a nice range of skills in the middle this year. Veteran James Hamblin can play in any situation; he’s enjoying a strong start to the year despite some injury issues. If Bakersfield coach Colin Chaulk sees Howard’s trip to the farm as a need to hone two-way acumen, Hamblin might be a strong fit for the phenom winger. At even strength this season, Hamblin’s lines have outscored the competition 7-1 (88 percent). He’s also a strong option as an even-strength scorer. Three of his five points (in seven games) have come when both sides are at even strength.

Viljami Marjala and Josh Samanski are two centres having great success in the AHL after spending most of their careers in Europe. Marjala has plus skill for the AHL, is very good as a passer and shooter and has a high degree of creativity with the puck. His 12 points in 13 games rank second on the Bakersfield squad, although he has only four even-strength points. Samanski has the same number of even-strength points and plays more of a two-way role. He would be an interesting option for Howard’s line.

What does he need to improve? 

All young forwards have gaps in their defensive awareness and need to play many games to improve their positioning and reading of plays. Howard is no exception. It will never be a strength, but if hope remains for Howard to see NHL playoff games in the spring of 2026, this side of the game will need improvement.

Howard did enjoy offensive success with the Oilers and did the damage at five-on-five (the most difficult time to score). His 0.79 goals per 60 at five-on-five with Edmonton was among the best totals on the team, via Natural Stat Trick.

Howard’s passing is also far better than the scouting reports implied. Chaulk may want to work on having Howard improve that side of his game, in anticipation of playing with one of the elite centres (who handle the puck a majority of the time).

What should be expected? 

Howard is a pure shooter and should see plenty of ice time at even strength and on the power play in Bakersfield. His volume shooting (7.49 shots per 60 at five-on-five led the Oilers) and scorer’s sixth sense (he knows where goals are scored) should translate well to the AHL almost immediately.

If Howard spends 50 games in the AHL this season, 20 goals is a reasonable expectation. Matt Savoie scored 19 in 66 games one year ago in Bakersfield, and Howard has more of a shooter’s approach.

When will Howard return to Edmonton? 

Some of this depends on the Oilers as an organization. Fans can see Savoie moving into a feature role now, and if he can hold on to those Connor McDavid minutes at five-on-five, it could ease Howard’s re-entry into the top-nine forwards (top three lines).

If Howard shows well in Bakersfield, he’ll force a recall. If Savoie proves he can stay on the McDavid line, it might shake loose Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for the No. 3 centre job when healthy. That would be an ideal situation for Howard. It would mean fading a veteran, but the development of the rookie is important. He could be a key scorer in the playoffs if the coaches trust Howard by then.

The deadline

Fans shouldn’t discount a trade involving Howard as the trade deadline nears. If the young winger progresses through the season, is recalled and becomes a trusted scoring winger, there’s no chance Edmonton general manager Stan Bowman considers dealing him.

However, this Oilers season has shown some roster holes through 20 games. Another NHL team may have what Edmonton needs heading to the deadline, with a top prospect like Howard the ask. The Oilers’ top prospects are Savoie and Howard, with Savoie establishing himself as a foundation piece currently.

It’s unlikely, but a Howard trade could happen if the coaching staff fades him and the team has a specific need Howard would satisfy in a trade.

Saturday night

Chaulk chose Samanski at centre and right winger Quinn Hutson as Howard’s linemates for the young winger’s first AHL game. The trio dominated the first period, with Howard grabbing two assists. The first came on a reaction play and shovel pass to Samanski in the slot, the second via a strong pass across the high slot to Hutson for a one-timer. He also hammered the puck off the post later in the game, on a night when Bakersfield’s offence was rolling.

His time in Bakersfield should be brief; a guess would have him back in the NHL after the Olympic break. He can take heart in the knowledge that many young players have been demoted in the early days of their pro careers. It happened to Mark Messier and Leon Draisaitl.

For Howard, it’s less about the demotion and more about what he’s going to do about it. Fans should bet on scoring success with the Condors. The lessons of responsible play will come in time.