A slight majority of likely voters in San Diego County say they are voting yes on a Democratic-backed redistricting measure, a new poll finds, with voting underway in California’s special election on the question.
Support for Proposition 50 — which would override the state’s independent redistricting commission to let state lawmakers redraw California’s congressional maps — has ticked up slightly since August, according to the SurveyUSA poll conducted for The San Diego Union-Tribune and ABC 10News. Opposition has risen as well.
Fifty-one percent of likely voters surveyed this month said they are voting yes on Prop. 50, compared with 49% of registered voters who said the same in mid-August, when a special election was still uncertain.
Back in August, 30% of registered voters polled said they would vote no on a ballot measure, compared to 34% of likely voters surveyed this month.
In San Diego, Prop. 50 commands more opposition than support among likely voters who are not registered with a political party. They make up 35% of all likely voters voting yes and 48% of those voting no, according to the poll.
Fifteen percent of likely voters told pollsters they were still undecided on how they would vote, compared to 21% of registered voters in August.
Prop. 50 calls for temporarily overriding California’s independent redistricting commission and letting the Legislature adopt gerrymandered congressional maps in order to favor Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections. The new maps would be used in 2028 and 2030, too, with the independent commission drawing new maps after the 2030 census.
The new maps could help Democrats pick up as many as five seats in the House of Representatives, in an effort to offset Republican-led redistricting in Texas and elsewhere.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has been a lead architect of the ballot measure. But the new poll shows support for him has flagged in San Diego County. In August, 54% of registered voters said they approved of Newsom’s job performance. This month, 50% did.
The survey was conducted online from Oct. 9-13. It has a credibility interval of roughly 5 percentage points.
The new poll comes as Democratic Party stars like former President Barack Obama and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have appeared in new campaign ads urging California voters to vote yes on Prop. 50.
In an ad released Tuesday, Obama told California voters that “the whole nation is counting on you.”
“With Prop. 50, you can stop Republicans in their tracks,” the former president said. “Prop. 50 puts our elections back on a level playing field.”
On the Republican side, former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has come out against the redistricting push, even as he sharply criticizes President Donald Trump. During an event at the University of Southern California, Schwarzenegger called the effort “insane” and said the new maps would “take the power away from the people.”
His remarks have since been sliced into an ad opposing Prop. 50 paid for by Charles Munger Jr., a GOP donor who helped bankroll the original campaign for the 2010 ballot measure that created California’s redistricting commission.
Should Prop. 50 pass, redistricting could have big implications for a congressional race in East County. Under new maps, the 48th Congressional District now represented by Rep. Darrell Issa, a Republican, would favor Democrats by 4 percentage points.
A more competitive race has prompted several Democrats to launch campaigns for it, including Ammar Campa-Najjar, who has run for Congress twice before, and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, who faces term limits.