San Diego State’s path to a first College Football Playoff berth is a narrow one, and the Aztecs will require some help if they hope to make history.
The five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids to the playoff. To qualify, SDSU (8-2, 5-1 Mountain West) needs to close out the regular season with victories over San Jose State (3-7, 2-4) at home and at New Mexico (7-3, 4-2) to earn its first season with double-digit wins since 2021.
The Aztecs would then have to win the Mountain West championship game on Dec. 5. It wouldn’t hurt if their opponent is Hawaii, giving them an opportunity to avenge a 38-6 loss to the Rainbow Warriors earlier this month.
An 11-2 record, a Mountain West title, an elite defense and impressive victories over Cal, Fresno State and Boise State would be a solid argument for inclusion in the CFP, especially considering SDSU was picked to finish eighth in the conference.
Were the season to end today, Tulane would receive the automatic bid. To make the CFP, San Diego State would have to leapfrog champions from the American and Sun Belt conferences and hope for chaos throughout the Group of 5.
Is it a long shot? Sure.ESPN’s Power Index currently gives the Aztecs a 1% chance of making the playoffs. The Athletic is slightly more bullish at 3% in its updated projections.
But a chance is a chance. Here’s a breakdown of the other six contenders for the Group of Five automatic bid in the CFP:
James Madison
Conference: Sun Belt
Record: 9-1 overall, 7-0 in conference play
Remaining schedule: Saturday vs. Washington St. (5-5), Nov. 29 at Coastal Carolina (6-4)
Playoff odds: 52% (ESPN, 37% (The Athletic)
Notable: CFP chair Hunter Yurachek said strength of schedule was the main difference between Tulane and James Madison this week, which does not bode well for the Dukes’ playoff hopes. JMU’s best win at this point is over Old Dominion, which is the only Sun Belt team to beat a Power Four team (Virginia Tech). The Aztecs are ranked 128th in SOS, so they might need the Dukes to drop their final two regular-season games or get upset in the Sun Belt Championship game for the committee to favor them.
North Texas
Conference: American
Record: 9-1, 5-1
Remaining schedule: Saturday at Rice, Nov. 28 vs. Temple
Playoff odds: 38% (ESPN), 34% (The Athletic)
Notable: Whichever team wins the American will likely represent the Group of Five in the CFP. The Mean Green don’t have a strong strength of schedule either — they’re ranked 127th — but they’ve been mostly dominant. North Texas is eighth in the country in average scoring margin at plus-17.9 points per game. SDSU has to hope the American champ winds up with at least three losses to have a real shot.
Tulane
Conference: American
Record: 8-2, 5-1
Remaining schedule: Saturday at Temple, Nov. 29 vs. Charlotte
Playoff odds: 18% (ESPN), 16% (The Athletic)
Notable: The Green Wave played three power-conference teams, beating Northwestern (23-3) and Duke (34-27) and losing to Ole Miss (45-10). But a 48-26 loss to UTSA in league play is a major blemish on an otherwise solid résumé. A lack of dominance is also a potential problem. Tulane beat South Alabama, East Carolina, Army and Memphis by one score.
East Carolina
Conference: American
Record: 7-3, 5-1
Remaining schedule: Saturday at UTSA, Nov. 29 at FAU
Playoff odds: 2% (ESPN), 4% (The Athletic)
Notable: ECU can win a conference title berth by winning out and hoping two of the other three one-loss teams — North Texas, Tulane and Navy — lose at least one more game in conference play. Six of the Pirates’ victories have come by double digits, but none of the wins are of the signature variety. The Pirates’ SOS is ranked 94th.
Navy
Conference: American
Record: 8-2, 6-1
Remaining schedule: Nov. 27 at Memphis, Dec. 13 vs. Army
Playoff odds: 2% (ESPN), 3% (The Athletic)
Notable: The Midshipmen have arguably the best win in this group, over USF last Saturday, and the best loss, at Notre Dame. This, coupled with the 74th-ranked SOS, would likely make them a lock if they beat Memphis next week and win the American title game. Navy’s game against Army will be the week after the “CFP Selection Show” and will have no effect on the Midshipmen’s CFP hopes.
South Florida
Conference: American
Record: 7-3, 4-2
Remaining schedule: Saturday at UAB, Nov. 29 vs. Rice
Playoff odds: ESPN (2%), The Athletic (2%).
Notable: After losing at Navy, the Bulls need to win out and hope North Texas, Tulane and East Carolina all lose one or two games apiece over the next two weeks. South Florida holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over North Texas and may have the strongest résumé of any team in this group. They have the 54th-best SOS, they routed Boise State 34-7 — not good for the Aztecs — and beat Florida 18-16 in Gainesville.