Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for the Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets NBA matchup.
Two teams at polar opposite ends of the Western Conference standings will be facing off to close down Saturday night’s seven-game NBA slate. The Sacramento Kings enter with a 3-13 record and sit in 14th place in the conference, but will look to challenge the 12-3 Denver Nuggets, who are second in the standings. This is the second half of a back-to-back for Denver, which defeated the Houston Rockets on Friday night.
Looking at the odds, the Nuggets enter as 10.5-point favorites and hold -535 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Kings hold +400 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 240.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Saturday night matchup.
Kings at Nuggets Preview
It has been an ugly start to the season in Sacramento. The Kings are just 3-13 on the year, with their victories coming against the Jazz, Bucks, and Warriors. They enter this matchup on an eight-game losing streak and, to make matters worse, Domantas Sabonis is sidelined for the foreseeable future with a torn meniscus. The Kings are just 5-11 against the spread with the over/under going 8-8.
As a team, Sacramento ranks 25th in the league in scoring at 111.0 points per game. They rank 16th in field goal percentage and three-point percentage, and 26th in offensive rating. On the other end, Sacramento ranks third-to-last in defensive rating and points allowed (124.4). They are dead last in opponent field goal percentage and rank 29th in rebounds per game.
Zach LaVine leads the team in scoring at 21.9 points per game, along with 3.4 rebounds and shooting 41.2% from beyond the arc. DeMar DeRozan adds 17.9 points, 3.5 assists, and 3.1 rebounds, while Malik Monk pitches in 12.5 points per contest. Russell Westbrook has brought a spark of energy and is posting averages of 13.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.3 assists, while Dennis Schroder and Keegan Murray also averaged 11+ points per game.
The Denver Nuggets are off to a 12-3 start to the season and sit in second place in the Western Conference. Their three losses have surprisingly come at the hands of the Warriors, Trail Blazers, and Bulls, but they enter this matchup having won nine of their last 10. Denver is 10-5 against the spread, and the over has cashed in eight of their 15 games this year.
The Nuggets rank second in the league in scoring at 123.8 points per game. They are second in offensive rating, second in field goal percentage, 13th in three-point percentage, and rank fifth in rebounds per game. Defensively, Denver is allowing 112.8 points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. They are holding teams to the fifth-worst field goal percentage, second-worst three-point percentage, and rank fourth in defensive rating.
Nikola Jokic continues to play at an MVP level, averaging 29.5 points and leading the NBA with 13.0 rebounds and 11.0 assists per game. Jamal Murray has gotten off to an excellent start to the season, pitching in 22.8 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.9 rebounds. Aaron Gordon was also off to an extremely strong start, but re-injured his hamstring last night, which is expected to keep him out for an extended period of time. Julian Strawther and Christian Braun also remain out. Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr, Peyton Watson, Bruce Brown, and Jonas Valanciunas round out most of the team’s depth.
Kings at Nuggets Prediction, Best Bet
While there is little doubt the Nuggets are the better overall team, Sacramento was able to keep it close in the first matchup this season. On November 3rd, the Nuggets pulled off a 130-124 victory in what turned out to be a Sacramento cover. These teams also faced off on November 11th, which resulted in a 122-108 Nuggets’ victory and a cover in their favor.
The outlook has only exacerbated for the Kings since then. While the Sabonis injury certainly hasn’t helped, it has felt like the wheels were falling off long before. Sacramento lost its previous game to the Grizzlies by 41 and has dropped each game in its eight-game losing streak by 13 or more points.
Denver is coming off a grueling 112-109 win over the Rockets last night. Suiting up for the second half of a back-to-back after traveling home from Houston is not the easiest schedule, but this circumstance doesn’t narrow the talent gap between these two opponents.
Nikola Jokic is the best player on just about every basketball floor he walks on and will especially dominate the glass against a Kings team that has really struggled to control the boards. The improved defensive level from the Nuggets has been encouraging this year, and the Kings have enough problems generating offense in their own right. Expect Denver to continue asserting why they are among the biggest Western Conference threats, and for Jokic to be capable of putting this game away despite the lack of rest. Count on the Kings to pick up their ninth-straight loss of 11+ points and for the Nuggets to cover the 10.5-point spread.