Florida State is off to a 4-1 start to the season, but the schedule is about to become pretty hard pretty quickly. After tonight’s game against Cal State-Bakersfield, they’ll have three straight games against power conference opponents, all in three different venues.
But they’ll have to get past this challenge from Bakersfield first. They have one of the most high-volume scorers in college basketball, and one of the things they excel in happens to be a big weakness for Florida State’s defense.
This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on ACCNX/ESPN+, live from the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center in Tallahassee, Florida.
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Nov 14, 2025; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners guard Dailin Smith (15) handles the ball as Mississippi Rebels guard Travis Perry (11) defends during the first half at C.M. ’Tad’ Smith Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
CSU-Bakersfield is in their first year under head coach Mike Scott, He was not supposed to be their head coach. Rod Barnes, who had been there since 2011, and had also been a head coach at Ole Miss and Georgia State, resigned on September 24th after some allegations against a former assistant coach.
Mike Scott has been an assistant at Bakersfield since 2017, Paris Junior College, and a few other smaller level schools. Acting as a head coach is a big jump for him, and they haven’t been a good team this year.
There is one thing in particular that they’re really good at: getting to the free-throw line. They’re attempting more than 28 free throws per game, have a free-throw rate that ranks in the top 20 nationally, and are getting nearly 30% of their points at the free-throw line. Also, teams have shot so poorly against them at the free-throw line, which is totally out of their control. They’re also a decent offensive rebounding team and at blocking shots. They also don’t allow many three-point shots, which will be an interesting clash of styles.
There are plenty of things they’ve been bad at: shooting efficiency, turnovers, defensive rebounding, and passing. Just a lot of the fundamentals of the game.
Three players you need to know: Dailin Smith, CJ Hardy, and Ron Jessamy. Those three players combine to score 60% of all the points scored.
Smith is leading the way at 17 PPG, but he’s been really inefficient thus far, shooting 46.5% on two-pointers, and 27.3% from three. However, he’s attempting eight free throws per game. That will help make up for a lot.
CJ Hardy is the more efficient and better playmaking of the two, averaging 16.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 2.8 APG, shooting 55.1% from the floor and 50% from three (just over two attempts per game). But he’s also getting to the line a lot, averaging more than seven attempts per game.
And the same goes for Ron Jessamy, who has mostly come off the bench for Pierre Geneste Jr. (better rebounder and shot-blocker), who missed last game. Jessamy is averaging 11 PPG and 6.8 RPG, but shooting 4 free throws per game. Smith, Hardy, and Jessamy are all within the top 120 nationally for individual free-throw rates.
AJ George and Tom Mark have been the starters at the 3 and 4, but neither are shooting well. George was at SMU last year but couldn’t crack the rotation.
Florida State guard Lajae Jones (10) drives on Florida guard Boogie Fland (0) during the first half of an NCAA men’s basketball game at Exactec Arena at the Steven C. O Connell Center in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, November 11, 2025. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] / Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Florida State has eight non-conference games remaining. Of the eight, four of them are against teams currently in the top 70 of KenPom, and four of them are away from home. After this game against Bakersfield, FSU will be playing Texas A&M in Tampa, hosting Georgia for the ACC/SEC Challenge, then going to Houston for basically an away game (in the Houston Rockets arena).
That’s a crazy stretch, which is why it’s important for FSU to hash out some issues (free-throw shooting, fouling) now against CSU-Bakersfield.
However, Coach Loucks’ vision is already alive and well. Florida State is first nationally in three-pointers attempted per game, and they’re in the top five in terms of offensive pace. This offense is playing at a blistering pace, and although they’re not as efficient as they want to be, it’s a heck of a challenge for opposing defenses.
I also love how determined they are to set a new record in every game. On Friday, Lajae Jones tied the FSU record for threes made in a game with 10, while FSU reset their own record for threes attempted in a game after just setting that record in the second game of the season.
Florida State
G: Robert McCray V
G: Kobe MaGee
G: Lajae Jones
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen
CSU Bakersfield
G: CJ Hardy
G: Dailin Smith
F: AJ George
F: Tom Mark
F: Ron Jessamy (Pierre Geneste Jr. if available)
DEFEND WITHOUT FOULING
Bakersfield is one of the best teams in the country at getting to the free-throw line, as they have a free-throw rate of 52.9%, which is top 20 nationally, and they’re attempting over 28 free throws per game. Compare that to FSU, who is allowing a free-throw rate of 41.7%, and you can see how this could be a concern entering the game.
I’m putting the pressure on Robert McCray V and Lajae Jones to be better with it, mainly. They’re each averaging over three fouls per game, and there hasn’t been a game where McCray didn’t have at least three fouls. I get wanting to be aggressive on defense, but he’s too important on offense to be sitting on the bench.
Limit CSU-Bakersfield’s Guard Duo
Bakersfield’s duo of CJ Hardy and Dailin Smith is averaging a combined 33.3 PPG, about 45% of the team’s total scoring, so FSU’s defense will be keyed in on limiting them. But a lot of that will come by not letting them get to the free-throw line (see above).
Smith is a shot-chucker, taking nearly 13 shots from the floor and 5.5 threes per game. He’s top 40 nationally in percentage of shots taken for a team, and even though he’s only shooting 46.5% on twos and 27.3% on threes, FSU can’t allow him to get easy shots. CJ Hardy is the more efficient and better playmaker of the two, so I expect FSU to try and get the ball out of their hands.
Better Free-Throw Shooting
Florida State started the season strong with free-throw shooting, but they’re a combined 32/52 (61.5%) in the last two games. This is a point of emphasis for the team, and I know Coach Loucks is not pleased with it, but this is something that needs to be corrected. They’ll need every point they can get against Houston, so they need to start converting on free throws.
Florida State is favored by 22.5 points with an over/under of 157.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
I think CSU-Bakersfield is going to be overmatched by FSU’s tempo. They’ve yet to play an offense that plays anywhere near as fast as Florida State, any they’ve lost by 20+ to both Ole Miss and Cal. This should be another 20-point win for the Seminoles.
Florida State 97, Cal State-Bakersfield 71
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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