Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners and the North Dakota State Bison.
The final college hoops game available on DraftKings Sportsbook Thursday gives us a classic mid-major collision: a Summit contender stretching its legs on the West Coast against a Big West rebuild trying to turn a quirky gym back into a house of pain. North Dakota State arrives at 7-3, with two one-possession road losses and a résumé already dotted with wins over Southern Illinois, Montana and a stubborn Northern Arizona group. Cal State Bakersfield is 4-6 but 3-0 at home, their only bright patches in a schedule that has already thrown Cal, Ole Miss, Florida State and UC Santa Barbara at an almost entirely retooled roster. The market has leaned into that gap, hanging North Dakota State -6.5 with a total of 149.5 for a game that should not feel sleepy once it gets going. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners and the North Dakota State Bison.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The Bison profile like the grown-up side here. They score 79.4 points per game on 44.2% shooting, knock down 32.1% from three, and live at 75.3% on the line, all while holding opponents to 67.3 points on 42.8% from the floor. That is a +12.1 scoring margin backed by 16.1 assists and only 11.0 turnovers per game, with their offense sitting around 150th nationally in scoring and their defense in the low-60s in points allowed. Damari Wheeler-Thomas and Markhi Strickland both hover in the mid-teens in scoring, with Strickland finishing 63.5% of his shots, while Trevian Carson and Noah Feddersen add double-figure scoring and real glass work. North Dakota State is also generating 9.4 steals and more than 20 points off turnovers per night, which matters against a team that can get loose with the ball.
Context matters, too: Summit coaches and media pegged the Bison fourth in the preseason, and both Feddersen and Strickland landed on the all-league second team. That’s a frontcourt built to anchor a contender, not just float in the middle of the league. You see it in the game log: they took Oregon State to the final possession, hung around at UC Davis, then stacked convincing wins over CSUN, Southern Illinois, Jacksonville State and Montana. They are not flawless—late-game offense stalled at Arkansas State, and the three-point reliance can create some choppy stretches—but the baseline here is a connected, veteran group with real identity on both ends.
Bakersfield, by contrast, is still figuring out who it wants to be under acting head coach Mike Scott after losing its top scorers to the portal. They average 72.8 points on 42.0% from the field and 28.5% from deep, but give up 80.7 on 45.8% shooting and 31.7% from three, with a -7.9 scoring margin that slots them near the bottom of Division I in points allowed and assists per game. The Roadrunners are far too turnover-prone at 14.9 per game and only 11.1 assists, while opponents rack up 15.6 assists and nearly 38.2 rebounds against them. Dailin Smith (17.1 points) and CJ Hardy (14.6 points) do give them two legitimate perimeter creators, and Ronald Jessamy has been a productive interior piece at 11.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.6 blocks.
North Dakota State vs. CSU Bakersfield pick, best bet
If you want a Bakersfield case, it starts with the building and the rim. The Icardo Center is historically a harsh trip, and this team is 3-0 at home while going 1-6 everywhere else. The Roadrunners block 6.2 shots per game, ranking second in the Big West and 15th nationally, with Jessamy and Pierre Genesté Jr. both near the top of the league in rejection rate; they even tied their program record with 13 blocks in a win over Western Illinois. They also live at the free-throw line with 20.1 made free throws per game and multiple guards who attack in a straight line. If North Dakota State settles for jumpers, or if whistle variance tilts toward a physical home underdog, Bakersfield can absolutely hang around and make this sweaty.
I just do not think the underlying math or recent form supports Bakersfield for 40 minutes. North Dakota State is +121 in scoring across 10 games; Bakersfield is -79 in the same span. The Bison are 5-3 against the number and already comfortable playing up in class, while Bakersfield is 3-6 ATS with two straight double-digit league losses and an 80-point defensive floor that keeps showing up. The Roadrunners’ block party is real, but it is masking a defense that leaks threes, surrenders clean catch-and-shoot looks and fouls a ton. Against a Bison offense that shares the ball, values possessions and has multiple inside-out scoring threats, that feels more like a recipe for a controlled road win than a late upset.
This number feels closer to North Dakota State -8 than -6.5 for me, even granting Bakersfield’s home edge. I expect the Bison to withstand the early energy at Icardo, win the turnover and rebounding categories, and slowly push this toward a comfortable two-possession margin that stretches late at the stripe.
Give me North Dakota State -6.5, with a projected score of North Dakota State 82, Cal State Bakersfield 72.
Best bet: North Dakota State -6.5 (-105) at CSU Bakersfield
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