SF FedViews: Prospects for AI-related Activity Add to Uncertainty Around the Economic Outlook in 2026
Despite the fourth quarter slowdown in growth, which was driven in part by the federal government shutdown, the…
Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets
The rapid rise in unauthorized immigration beginning in 2021 and its slowdown starting in 2024 have prompted an…
The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy
Today, I’m going to talk about artificial intelligence (AI). Now standing here in Silicon Valley, many of you…
Housing Affordability and Housing Demand
Housing costs have become a burden for many U.S. households. Discussions of how to improve housing affordability often…
SF FedViews: Slow Job Growth in a Strong Economy
Monthly job growth, a measure of labor demand, slowed to a near halt in 2025, but the unemployment…
Weather-Adjusted Employment Change – San Francisco Fed
Updated 1/9/2026 The Weather-Adjusted Employment Change data page provides estimates of monthly weather-adjusted employment changes in the United…
What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?
The 15% increase in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era.…
What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy
2025-26 | November 13, 2025 In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US…
The Economic Effects of Tariffs
The United States has pursued a wide range of import tariffs against its trading partners since the beginning…
SF FedViews: Solid Growth, but Small Cracks Have Emerged
Inflation has risen since early this year, largely driven by core goods prices. The increases likely relate to…
Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics
Demographics in the United States have changed substantially over the past two decades, reflecting the aging of the…
How Much Are Banks Exposed to Trade Policy Changes?
Financial markets dropped sharply following announced changes in U.S. trade policy in early 2025 but have since recovered.…