SF FedViews: Prospects for AI-related Activity Add to Uncertainty Around the Economic Outlook in 2026
Despite the fourth quarter slowdown in growth, which was driven in part by the federal government shutdown, the…
Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets
The rapid rise in unauthorized immigration beginning in 2021 and its slowdown starting in 2024 have prompted an…
SF FedViews: Slow Job Growth in a Strong Economy
Monthly job growth, a measure of labor demand, slowed to a near halt in 2025, but the unemployment…
What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?
The 15% increase in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era.…
What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy
2025-26 | November 13, 2025 In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US…
SF FedViews: Solid Growth, but Small Cracks Have Emerged
Inflation has risen since early this year, largely driven by core goods prices. The increases likely relate to…
Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics
Demographics in the United States have changed substantially over the past two decades, reflecting the aging of the…
 Policymaking Amid Change – San Francisco Fed
The U.S. economy has remained remarkably resilient this year, navigating uncertainty, changes in government policy, including tariffs, immigration,…
Signs of Cyclical Weakness in Part-Time Employment?
Economists often look beyond headline unemployment to measure the health of the U.S. labor market. One such measure…
SF FedViews: October 16, 2025
Progress on reducing inflation has been uneven of late. Inflation in the core goods sector has been rising…