SF FedViews: Prospects for AI-related Activity Add to Uncertainty Around the Economic Outlook in 2026
Despite the fourth quarter slowdown in growth, which was driven in part by the federal government shutdown, the…
The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy
Today, I’m going to talk about artificial intelligence (AI). Now standing here in Silicon Valley, many of you…
SF FedViews: Slow Job Growth in a Strong Economy
Monthly job growth, a measure of labor demand, slowed to a near halt in 2025, but the unemployment…
What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?
The 15% increase in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era.…
SF FedViews: Solid Growth, but Small Cracks Have Emerged
Inflation has risen since early this year, largely driven by core goods prices. The increases likely relate to…
 Policymaking Amid Change – San Francisco Fed
The U.S. economy has remained remarkably resilient this year, navigating uncertainty, changes in government policy, including tariffs, immigration,…
SF FedViews: October 16, 2025
Progress on reducing inflation has been uneven of late. Inflation in the core goods sector has been rising…