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<\/p>\nSouthern California homebuying dropped to its second-slowest pace for a November over the past 21 years despite the lowest mortgage rates in three years.<\/p>\n
Six local counties had 12,017 existing and newly built homes sold \u2014 both houses and condos \u2014 according to Attom data dating to 2005.<\/p>\n
The only slower-selling November in the past 21 years was in 2023. So purchases have been even more depressed than during the dark days of the Great Recession in 2008-09.<\/p>\n
Today, house hunters balk at lofty pricing. The buying total has dropped 7% over the last 12 months and is 32% below average, according to statistics dating back to 2005.<\/p>\n
Or think of the long-running slump this way.<\/p>\n
Sales during the past three years ran at a 13,836-a-month pace. That\u2019s 32% slower than seen over the previous 18 years.<\/p>\n
Wannabe owners were unmotivated by some rate relief in late autumn.<\/p>\n
Mortgage rates averaged 6.3% in the three months ended in November, down from 6.5% a year earlier and the recent peak of 7.4% in November 2022. And in early 2026, mortgages have fallen to 6%.<\/p>\n
Still, Southern California\u2019s pricing remains stubbornly high.<\/p>\n
The region\u2019s $812,000 median sales price in November was up 1.5% year-over-year and sits just 3% below the $833,000 peak set in June 2025.<\/p>\n
Even adding more options for buyers seeking an existing home didn\u2019t make much of a difference.<\/p>\n
For example, Southern California had an average of 38,000 homes listed for sale over the three months ending in November, according to Realtor.com. That was up 17% in a year, though it was 8% below supply in pre-pandemic 2019.<\/p>\n
The price is wrong<\/p>\n
Why didn\u2019t the late 2025 dip in rates immediately boost sales?<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s take a brief history lesson.<\/p>\n
The Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates it controls during the pandemic\u2019s 2020-2022 economic upheaval. Mortgage rates hit historic lows, with the three-month average tumbling to 2.73% in January 2021. That cheap money overheated the housing market.<\/p>\n
In early 2022, the Fed\u2019s policy reversed when inflation hit a four-decade high. The cost of living \u2014 and home sale prices \u2014 slowly cooled.<\/p>\n
Last year, another change in Fed thinking nudged rates lower as concerns swirled\u00a0about an ailing job market. And economic uncertainty is rarely good for homebuying.<\/p>\n
Still, those gyrations translated into Southern California home prices rising 12% over the past three years vs. 33% gains in 2019-2022.<\/p>\n
Payment pain<\/p>\n
Who\u2019s got $4,012 a month to buy a home?<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a typical buyer\u2019s estimated mortgage payment at November\u2019s median price, when it was financed at rates at lows not seen since 2022.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Yes, this payment index is 8% below its June 2025 peak. Yet this house hunter\u2019s monthly financial burden remains double what it was six years ago.<\/p>\n
Plus, you\u2019d need a 20% down payment to get such a deal. That\u2019s another $162,000 a buyers must have to purchase the typical home.<\/p>\n
Also, this calculation does not include other recurring ownership costs such as property taxes, insurance or maintenance.<\/p>\n
Bigger picture<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just Southern California \u2014 low sales vs. high prices.<\/p>\n
Statewide, November\u2019s 23,317 sales were the second-slowest total for the month over 21 years. California\u2019s $735,000 median is only 2% below its all-time high set in June 2025.<\/p>\n
Nationwide, 269,665 homes sold, fourth-lowest count over 21 years. The $365,000 U.S. median is just 1% below its June 2025 record.<\/p>\n
Locally speaking<\/p>\n
Here is how the sales stall looked across the region\u2019s six counties, ranked by the depth of the historical sales drop \u2026<\/p>\n
San Bernardino: 1,443 sales in November, the county\u2019s slowest November over the past 21 years. The month\u2019s median of $525,000 is 4% below the all-time high set in October 2024.<\/p>\n
San Diego: 1,913 sales, No. 2 slowest, with a $872,000 median, 5% below the June 2024 peak.<\/p>\n
Los Angeles: 4,507 sales, No. 2 slowest, with a $888,000 median, 3% below the June 2025 peak.<\/p>\n
Riverside: 1,893 sales, No. 2 slowest, with a $599,000 median, which is 3% below the April 2025 peak.<\/p>\n
Orange: 1,746 sales, No. 3 slowest, with a $1.16 million median, 5% below the June 2025 peak.<\/p>\n
Ventura:\u00a0 515 sales, No. 5 slowest, with a $850,000 median, which is 4% below the June 2025 peak.<\/p>\n