\u201cRight now, people can place bets on everything from who will win the Super Bowl to which party will control Congress,\u201dRep. Salud Carbajal (D-Santa Barbara) said. \u201cThese wagers are happening on platforms that, in many cases, operate without proper oversight or safeguards.\u201d<\/p>\n
Before last year\u2019s Super Bowl, Kalshi launched sports contracts and had $27 million of total volume as users predicted the winner of Super Bowl LIX between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs. This year Kalshi has seen more than $150 million in volume on its Super Bowl LX winner market, with users pinning the probability of a Seattle Seahawks win over the New England Patriots at 68%.<\/p>\n
FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics all launched sports prediction markets during the last two months in states like California where state-authorized sports betting isn\u2019t yet legal. But don\u2019t count on seeing ads from those online betting giants touting their prediction markets during NBC\u2019s Super Bowl broadcast.<\/p>\n
The NFL has forbidden prediction market ads during the Super Bowl, a person with knowledge of the ban not authorized to discuss it publicly told The Times. While MLS, the NHL and UFC entered into partnerships with prediction market companies, NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller wrote in testimony to a Congressional committee in December \u201cthe league has no plans to participate in prediction markets\u201d and the NFL\u2019s gambling policy for players and team and league employees views prediction markets as the same as other forms of sports betting banned by the league.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are particularly troubled that several sports-related futures contracts have been launched nationwide, including in jurisdictions where sports betting has not been legalized,\u201d Miller continued.<\/p>\n
California is among those jurisdictions, one of 11 states that have not authorized state-sanctioned sports betting since a 2018 decision by the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a law that effectively had limited legal sports betting to Nevada. Currently, prediction markets are regulated only by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an agency established more than 50 years ago to oversee and prevent fraud in derivatives. Multiple states have gone to court to argue prediction markets are nothing more than unlicensed gambling sites that operate in violation of state law and tribal compacts.<\/p>\n
![\"Seahawks](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/1769949129_137_.jpeg\")
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NFL fans in California can wager on the probability of the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl despite a ban on sports betting in the state.<\/p>\n
(Eric Thayer\/Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n
\u201cKalshi, Polymarket and these other companies are coming in and saying, \u2018Listen, your rules don\u2019t matter. State sovereignty doesn\u2019t matter. Tribal sovereignty doesn\u2019t matter,\u2019\u201d said Victor Rocha, who chairs the Indian Gaming Assn. and is a member of the Pechanga Band of Indians. \u201cThey\u2019re all looking for workarounds so they don\u2019t have to pay taxes while eroding the tax bases in states with legal sports gambling.\u201d<\/p>\n
While the CFTC has taken a hands-off approach to prediction markets under the Trump administration, new CFTC chair Michael Selig said last week<\/a> that \u201cit is time for clear rules and a clear understanding that the CFTC supports lawful innovation in these markets.\u201d<\/p>\n The Coalition for Prediction Markets, an advocacy arm of the prediction market industry, applauded Selig\u2019s remarks and said in a statement<\/a> it welcomes \u201cthe participation of the Commission in matters where that jurisdiction is under attack.\u201d<\/p>\n Unlike traditional sports betting in which bettors place bets against \u201cthe house,\u201d prediction market users buy and sell yes or no contracts on real-world events directly with each other. Trading impacts the odds \u2014 and the potential payout \u2014 for each event. Such markets gained popularity during the 2024 presidential race as proponents touted them as being more accurate and timely than traditional polling. The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and CNBC are among the outlets that entered into partnerships with prediction market providers to gain access to \u201cwisdom-of-the-crowd\u201d data.<\/p>\n