{"id":167014,"date":"2026-02-06T18:23:08","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T18:23:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/167014\/"},"modified":"2026-02-06T18:23:08","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T18:23:08","slug":"three-keys-to-victory-and-a-prediction-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/167014\/","title":{"rendered":"Three keys to victory and a prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Nevada men\u2019s basketball team hosts Fresno State on Saturday night. Nevada Sports Net\u2019s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Fresno State (11-11, 5-6 MW) at Nevada (16-7, 8-4)<\/p>\n

When: Saturday, 7 p.m.<\/p>\n

Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,536 capacity)<\/p>\n

TV\/Radio: Nevada Sports Net\/95.5 FM<\/p>\n

Online: NevadaSportsNet.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Betting line: No line posed yet<\/p>\n

Three keys for Nevada to win<\/p>\n

1. Plus territory in points off turnovers: Fresno State\u2019s offense ranks 220th in the nation, per KenPom, and a large reason for that is the Bulldogs\u2019 issues with turnovers. Fresno State gives the ball away on 19.1 percent of its possessions, which is 328th in the country. In the first matchup between these teams, Fresno State had 15 turnovers the led to 19 Nevada points. The Wolf Pack was plus-nine in points off turnovers in a one-point win and should be able to replicate that figure in this game. Bulldogs point guard Zaon Collins has committed 62 turnovers, which are the second most in the MW behind only Wyoming\u2019s Leland Walker (63). Fresno State\u2019s defense has done a good job of creating turnovers, but the Bulldogs\u2019 giveaways have been the team\u2019s biggest Achilles\u2019 heel.<\/p>\n

2. More efficient down low: Fresno State\u2019s post defense has been an issue with the Bulldogs allowing opponents to make 55.7 percent of their two-point shots, which ranks 333rd in the country. Whether Nevada can take advantage of that weakness is undetermined. The Wolf Pack\u2019s biggest offensive issue has been finishing in the paint, with Nevada one of the MW\u2019s worst teams at making \u201cclose twos.\u201d In its first game against Fresno State, the Wolf Pack made just 51.4 percent of its two-point attempts, well below the Bulldogs\u2019 allowed mark of 56.2 percent in all other MW games. Fresno State has a 7-foot center in Wilson Jacques, but he doesn\u2019t provide much rim protection. The Bulldogs\u2019 6.2 block percentage ranks 337th in the country. This is a weakness Nevada must expose as Fresno State has been elite at defending the 3-point line, holding foes to 29 percent shooting from deep (ninth nationally).<\/p>\n

3. Big bench effort: Nevada\u2019s bench has been a big strength, except when it\u2019s been a weakness. The Wolf Pack\u2019s reserves have had some big games, but it\u2019s also had some no-shows of late. That was the case in Tuesday\u2019s loss at Boise State when the bench tallied just three points in 56 minutes while making 1-of-12 shots in an overtime defeat. In the win at Fresno State earlier this season, Nevada\u2019s bench tallied 27 points with Tyler Rolison notching 16 of those, including the game-winning layup with 10 seconds remaining. When Nevada\u2019s bench plays like that, the Wolf Pack is really hard to beat, but the group has had some consistency issues during conference action. Rolison, in particular, is a big X-factor for the Wolf Pack.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/p>\n

Nevada 75, Fresno State 65: There is blowout potential here if Nevada plays to its potential with the Wolf Pack a far more talented offensive team than Fresno State despite the Bulldogs\u2019 improvement, which has been legitimate. Jake Heidbreder is one of the MW\u2019s top scorers, and he had a career-high five made 3-pointers in the earlier matchup against Nevada, notching 25 points in a 66-65 Wolf Pack win. Nevada doesn\u2019t want to play around in this one, as it is a must win to remain in the MW title hunt. Season record: 16-7<\/p>\n

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Nevada men\u2019s basketball team hosts Fresno State on Saturday night. Nevada Sports Net\u2019s Chris Murray breaks down…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":167015,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[80442,112,114,113,742,33633,13389,43056,80441,80443,744],"class_list":{"0":"post-167014","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fresno","8":"tag-bench-performance","9":"tag-fresno","10":"tag-fresno-headlines","11":"tag-fresno-news","12":"tag-fresno-state","13":"tag-game-prediction","14":"tag-mountain-west","15":"tag-nevada-basketball","16":"tag-post-defense","17":"tag-three-point-defense","18":"tag-turnovers"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=167014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167014\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/167015"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=167014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=167014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=167014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}