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<\/p>\nBefore every season, I like to write up the findings of some of the various projection systems. Before every season, there are a few of you who don\u2019t like this. \u201cWho cares?\u201d and \u201cGet to what actually matters\u201d are a couple of the common refrains, and I hear you. So before we get into all of this, I\u2019d like to satisfy both camps.<\/p>\n
First, here\u2019s a picture showing what went on in camp earlier this week, courtesy of the San Francisco Giants:<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n Ryan Walker slings a pitch during his bullpen session. (Suzanna Mitchell \/ San Francisco Giants \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
Yessir, that\u2019s a pic of Ryan Walker in the bullpen, and he\u2019s throwing \u2026 actually I don\u2019t know which direction he\u2019s throwing. With most pitchers you can figure it out from the angle, but with Walker, you start getting into some MC Escher stuff.<\/p>\n
The point being, that\u2019s the story of the Giants right now. They\u2019re getting reps, getting stronger, shaking the rust off, and while it\u2019s still not unthinkable that the front office surprises us all and makes another transaction, this is almost certainly the team you should get used to. There\u2019s not much more to say about it.<\/p>\n
So, let\u2019s look at some nerd numbers.<\/p>\n
Here are a few scattered thoughts on the PECOTA projections over at Baseball Prospectus (subscription encouraged)<\/a>:<\/p>\n You\u2019ll never believe it, but the Giants are projected to be around .500<\/p>\n Oh, wait. You actually can believe that? Weird.<\/p>\n (That\u2019s not quite as bad as it sounds)<\/p>\n I\u2019m not going to throw dandruff on you and tell you that it\u2019s snowing, but the Giants\u2019 projected 81.4 wins (with a 1-percent chance of winning the NL West), is tied for the sixth-best record in the National League. If that were to hold, the Giants would be one of the NL\u2019s wild-card teams. Or, technically, it would put them in position to be the last postseason qualifier, assuming they won a tiebreaker. You can hear the roar of the crowd already.<\/p>\n This is because projection systems hate bold predictions. They\u2019re set up to know there\u2019s a chance for Bryce Eldridge to hit 30 homers and win Rookie of the Year, but they\u2019re focused on the boring ol\u2019, middle-of-the-road likeliest projections. The 26-year-old gets a little better in his second season in the majors, perhaps, and the 36-year-old\u2019s projections take a hit, but more than anything else, they\u2019re focused on what they already know.<\/p>\n (Just kidding, it\u2019s exactly as bad as it sounds)<\/p>\n Here we are again, in the squishy middle, where every win or loss matters about a billion times more than it does to the teams at the top of the heap. The Dodgers don\u2019t have to sweat the regular season. They tell their hurt pitchers to take their sweet, sweet time, so long as they\u2019re ready by October. Signing Chris Bassitt to the deal he got with the Orioles, for example, doesn\u2019t make as much sense for them. They wouldn\u2019t need him in the postseason rotation unless something really went wrong.<\/p>\n The Giants sure could have used Bassitt, though. Would he have been the third starter? The fifth starter? The hybrid starter who lives in the bullpen (please poke air holes)? The answer is yes to all of the above. But it\u2019s hard to say that it would have dramatically raised the ceiling of the roster. It would have just put some load-bearing joists under the floor.<\/p>\n It would have been even more helpful for these preseason projections if the Giants had gotten an expensive, tried-and-true pitcher like Ranger Su\u00e1rez, but it still wouldn\u2019t have been enough for them to feel comfortable in the NL race. (Baseball Prospectus also has an article highlighting the teams for whom this would apply<\/a>, and the Giants are prominently featured.)<\/p>\n My best guess is that the Giants want to get to the trade deadline without leaking too much oil. They\u2019ll have a much better idea in July of the relievers who are throwing well and missing bats, as well as the pitchers who could make the rotation instantly and unequivocally better, without costing nine figures and\/or a draft pick. It\u2019s at the risk of losing some games earlier in the season, but if they are still in contention midseason, they\u2019ll have a clearer picture for how they can improve.<\/p>\n Zac Gallen is still available, though. To be very, very clear. The Giants aren\u2019t going to sign him, but all he would take is money, a draft pick and some international bonus money. You\u2019ve got a few bucks on you, right?<\/p>\n Patrick Bailey got his own article<\/p>\n