BY GARTH STAPLEY<\/p>\n
CV Journalism Collaborative<\/p>\n
Modesto native Heath Flora, the top Republican in the California Assembly, has lost the support of local party leaders in both of the largest counties he represents.<\/p>\n
In a stunning rebuke to the Assembly minority leader, the Stanislaus GOP party overwhelmingly voted in January to endorse his fellow Republican opponent instead of Flora in the upcoming primary election.<\/p>\n
And shocking as that was, the party in Flora\u2019s adopted homebase \u2013 San Joaquin County (officially, he hails from Ripon) \u2013 on Feb. 2 also turned its back on him. That group opted rather to endorse Lodi\u2019s Jim Shoemaker for the\u00a0Ninth Assembly District<\/a>, which includes Hughson, Escalon, Oakdale, Riverbank, Salida and Waterford.<\/p>\n \u201cWe heard from multiple elected officials from agencies throughout the district, and multiple constituents, all saying the same thing \u2013 Assemblyman Heath Flora and his staff have been virtually nonexistent in the district for years,\u201d said Joel Campos, Stanislaus County Republican Party chairman.<\/p>\n Shoemaker lost two previous races for other offices. But, \u201cJim is present, a visible force, going around helping people for many years,\u201d said David Cushman, Republican Party chairman in San Joaquin County. \u201cPeople don\u2019t feel the same about Heath.\u201d<\/p>\n Flora<\/a>\u00a0did not return messages left with his staff in Sacramento.<\/p>\n A Lodi-area Democrat,\u00a0Matthew Adams<\/a>, also is running.<\/p>\n In 2025, Flora donated $25,000 from his campaign fund to Republican central committees in both Sutter and San Bernardino counties, according to the\u00a0Cal-Access database<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 while tossing a $750 bone to Stanislaus and none to San Joaquin, where most voters in his district live.<\/p>\n That lack of monetary support was \u201cthe nail in the coffin,\u201d Campos said. \u201cIt was felt that he\u2019s not prioritizing his own district.\u201d<\/p>\n Flora didn\u2019t attend when candidates personally asked for endorsements of Stanislaus and San Joaquin GOP central committees, Campos and Cushman said.<\/p>\n Bottom of Form<\/p>\n Shoemaker appeared at both, winning 21 of 27 votes from the Stanislaus central committee and 19 of 20 from San Joaquin\u2019s central committee. He also persuaded party leaders in Amador County to back his candidacy.<\/p>\n Together, Stanislaus (with 22.4% of voters in the Ninth District), San Joaquin (58.4%) and Amador (2.4%)\u00a0 comprise\u00a0more than 83%<\/a>\u00a0of the Ninth Assembly District. The rest is in small sections of Sacramento and Calaveras counties.\u00a0<\/p>\n State party leaders normally get behind a candidate with that magnitude of local support. But backing an opponent to the Assembly GOP leader is almost unthinkable, leaving California\u2019s Republican bosses with an awkward choice before the June 2 primary election.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Flora weighed down by baggage<\/p>\n Less important to party leaders, Campos and Cushman said, is baggage that embarrassed Flora in a\u00a0blistering October report<\/a>\u00a0by The Sacramento Bee\u2019s Kate Wolffe.\u00a0<\/p>\n She found that Flora doesn\u2019t live in the Modesto home registered as his \u201clegal domicile\u201d; has claimed taxpayer-funded per diem reimbursements meant for lawmakers who commute more than 50 miles even though he lives in Sacramento; and a court order forced him to pay child support. The Bee also tracked down a former lobbyist who had an affair with Flora while he was married.\u00a0<\/p>\n He has not publicly addressed the allegations.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile Flora\u2019s actions do not appear to be illegal,\u201d Wolffe wrote, \u201cthe revelations make him an odd fit to lead a party that claims to represent family values and often bemoans Democrats\u2019 lack of transparency.\u201d<\/p>\n The Modesto Focus interviewed six GOP insiders, including voting and nonvoting attendees of local endorsement meetings. All confirmed the characterization by Campos and Cushman of Flora\u2019s attitude toward local needs.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Republican activism becomes more conservative<\/p>\n David Colnic, a political science professor at Stanislaus State University in Turlock, said the local parties are a microcosm of nationwide polarity, with Republicans moving farther to the right and Democrats to the left.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat we\u2019re seeing here are the party activists moving away,\u201d Colnic said. \u201cI don\u2019t think Flora changed; I think party activists have changed.\u201d<\/p>\n In Capitol voting, Flora consistently and loyally favors conservative interests more than most other legislators, according to an ideology meter of the\u00a0CalMatters Digital Democracy database<\/a>.<\/p>\n In the last session, donors gave his campaign $1.2 million \u2013 163% higher than the average legislator, according to Digital Democracy\u2019s analysis of data from Open Secrets.<\/p>\n Flora has not faced a serious challenge since he was\u00a0first elected 10 years ago<\/a>\u00a0with 52.3% of the vote over another Republican. Since then, his victories have all been landslides; two years ago, for instance, he won\u00a0more than 70% of the vote<\/a>\u00a0against a third-party opponent when Democrats didn\u2019t even field a candidate.<\/p>\n He once had institutional and statewide party support as well, rising to the pinnacle of Assembly GOP leadership a few days before The Bee\u2019s\u00a0expos\u00e9 last fall.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n It\u2019s a heady time at the Capitol for Stanislaus political junkies, with two native sons rising as high as possible in the Assembly superminority. Standing at Flora\u2019s shoulder as GOP caucus chair, or second in command, is\u00a0Juan Alanis, R-Modesto<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n The last Stanislaus politician at this level was Kristin Olsen, who lasted\u00a014 months as Assembly minority leader<\/a>\u00a0before her Republicans colleagues in Sacramento replaced her.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Will lack of local endorsements hurt Flora on Election Day?<\/p>\n A legislator facing little threat at home could be well-positioned for demands of a leadership role, said Nathan Monroe, director of UC Merced\u2019s Center for Analytic Political Engagement. Looking at Flora\u2019s impressive reelection record over the years, \u201che is an incredibly safe candidate, in a two-party sense,\u201d Monroe said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Do average voters pay much attention to endorsements of local party leaders?<\/p>\n Probably not, Monroe said. But voters tend to listen when someone visits their home with a political message, he said, and central committees have an important role in organizing such outreach.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a bigger deal in terms of what it says about the local party\u2019s willingness to do boots-on-the-ground door-knocking for you,\u201d Monroe said.<\/p>\n Shoemaker told The Modesto Focus, \u201cHeath is now going to have to actually run an election campaign, which he hasn\u2019t had to do in many years.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n On its face, challenging Flora is \u201cnuts, crazy,\u201d opponent admits<\/p>\n Shoemaker<\/a>\u00a0is known to voters in San Joaquin County, where he owned construction, trucking and pool companies. In his first political foray in 2022, he finished third in an eight-way primary for a congressional seat captured by Rep. Josh Harder, and Shoemaker was bested by Jerry McNerney in 2024 for a state Senate seat.<\/p>\n Shoemaker declined when first approached to challenge Flora, Shoemaker said.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cTo run against the highest guy in the Assembly would be nuts, crazy,\u201d Shoemaker said. He changed his mind after hearing dissatisfaction with Flora, he said \u2013 over and over.<\/p>\n \u201cI show up,\u201d Shoemaker said.<\/p>\n The Stanislaus Republican Party officially supports Alanis, but did not issue an endorsement in the state Senate District 4 race featuring incumbent Marie Alvarado-Gil and GOP challenger Alexandra Duarte. Neither was able to capture 75% of the local central committee vote \u2013 unlike Shoemaker.<\/p>\n Alvarado-Gil, elected in 2022 as a Democrat, switched to the GOP in August 2024 and initially faced two Republican opponents in Duarte and former Hughson Mayor Jeramy Young. But he announced at the central committee\u2019s Feb. 2 meeting that he was suspending his campaign and\u00a0will support Duarte<\/a>.<\/p>\n A commenter on Shoemaker\u2019s Instagram site left this wry observation: \u201cIn Stanislaus County we don\u2019t pick sides \u2013 we split them.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2014 Garth Stapley is the accountability reporter for\u00a0The Modesto Focus<\/a>, a project of the nonprofit\u00a0Central Valley Journalism Collaborative<\/a>. Contact him at\u00a0garth@cvlocaljournalism.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n