LOS ANGELES — LOS ANGELES (AP) \u2014 Less than two weeks from Election Day, the fight over new California U.S. House maps that could erase up to five Republican seats is starting to look like a lopsided match-up, with opponents running low on campaign ads and options.<\/p>\n
The dynamics of the race can still change, and ballot questions have a history<\/a> of quirky outcomes in California. But industry data show TV advertising spending \u2014 the main pipeline to voters in the vast state \u2014 dropping off dramatically by Republicans and other critics of the proposal. <\/p>\n The map pushed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom aims to bolster his party’s chances of regaining a House majority in 2026 and counter Republican efforts to add more seats in Texas and other states.<\/p>\n Voting began<\/a> earlier this month and concludes Nov. 4. <\/p>\n Over 1.5 million Democratic mail ballots have been returned<\/a> so far, outpacing about 853,000 Republican ballots, though that’s not surprising in a state where registered Democrats outnumber GOP voters by nearly 2-to-1.<\/p>\n Data compiled by advertising tracker AdImpact show Democrats and other supporters have nearly $9 million in ad buys booked on broadcast TV, cable and radio. But opponents have virtually no time reserved, though the data don’t include some popular streaming services like Hulu and YouTube or mail advertising. <\/p>\n According to AdImpact, supporters have aired nearly $70 million in ads so far, compared to about $31 million from opponents.<\/p>\n The outcome of the fight over so-called Proposition 50 will have national implications. A Democratic House would menace<\/a> President Donald Trump’s agenda for the remainder of his term, while Newsom is widely seen as a likely 2028 presidential contender who would get a publicity boost within his party for spearheading a plan to sidetrack Trump’s conservative playbook.<\/p>\n \u201cIf we lose this election in California it means Democrats have virtually no chance of taking back the House,\u201d Newsom warned in a recent fundraising pitch to supporters.<\/p>\n Earlier in the campaign the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to House Speaker Mike Johnson, kicked in a $5 million donation to opponents. But conspicuously, a hoped-for late surge in national Republican dollars has yet to materialize. <\/p>\n Investing in heavily Democratic California is often seen as a dicey bet for GOP donors, and Republicans are fighting across the country to hold their slim majorities in the House and Senate next year. Trump has mostly kept a distance from the contest in a state he lost in landslides in three presidential elections, but where he also has a loyal conservative base and received more votes than any previous Republican presidential candidate. <\/p>\n California is home to some of the nation’s most expensive media markets. When it comes to money, it’s not just a matter of fighting off Newsom’s new House map for the GOP \u2014 tens of millions of dollars more will be needed to defend the dwindling number of Republican House incumbents in the state, whether Proposition 50 passes or not. <\/p>\n With the 2026 midterms approaching and House control on the line, national Republican donors \u201care looking at those dollars and thinking where are they needed the most,\u201c said Tim Lineberger, who was communications director for Trump\u2019s 2016 campaign in Michigan and also worked in the former president\u2019s administration. With critical House races emerging around the country, those dollars might go elsewhere \u201crather than fight what might be inevitable here.\u201d<\/p>\n But with millions of Trump voters in California \u201cit’s still an important fight to have in this state,\u201d Lineberger added.<\/p>\n Longtime Republican strategist Jon Fleishman, a former executive director of the California Republican Party, asked, \u201cDoes the road to the White House or the Senate or the House really run through California?\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cIf we are not seeing a lot of national money coming in, we may be getting an unfortunate answer to that question,\u201d Fleishman said.<\/p>\n How much California’s political maneuvering will matter in House control \u2014 even if the new map is approved next month \u2014 is not yet known. <\/p>\n The proposed California House districts \u2014 crafted by Democrats behind closed doors \u2014 have been designed to add five Democratic U.S. House seats<\/a> to offset Trump\u2019s moves in Texas<\/a> to gain five Republican districts before the 2026 midterm elections. That could boost the Democratic margin to 48 of California\u2019s 52 congressional seats, up from the 43 seats the party now holds.<\/p>\n But Republicans in Missouri<\/a>, North Carolina<\/a> and Indiana<\/a> are making moves that could add GOP House seats as well \u2014 districts are crafted state by state. Republicans hold a 219-213 majority in the U.S. House, with three vacancies.<\/p>\n The framework of the race is set, with Newsom depicting the contest as a battle against Trump to save democracy, while Republicans and their supporters decry the proposal as a blatant power grab intended to make the state\u2019s dominant Democrats even more powerful while discarding House maps developed by an independent commission. <\/p>\n A handful of Republican congressmen who could see their districts dramatically reshaped have mostly stayed away from the campaign spotlight.<\/p>\n The single largest donor in the campaign could probably walk through downtown Los Angeles in the middle of the day without getting recognized. Charles Munger Jr. \u2014 son of the late billionaire Charlie Munger<\/a>, who helped Warren Buffett build Berkshire Hathaway into an investment powerhouse \u2014 has funneled over $30 million into the effort to block Newsom’s plan. <\/p>\n Munger, a longtime Republican donor who was instrumental in establishing independent redistricting in the state, says voters need to put aside talk of Trump and look at how Newsom’s map would upend representation by carving up districts for political gain.<\/p>\n Voters should ask, \u201cIs this good for you?\u201d Munger told reporters recently. \u201cDo you want to trust these people who drew these maps this way?”<\/p>\n