{"id":191032,"date":"2026-02-24T05:32:52","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T05:32:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/191032\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T05:32:52","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T05:32:52","slug":"scare-the-crap-out-of-you","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/191032\/","title":{"rendered":"Scare the crap out of you"},"content":{"rendered":"

If the near-constant warnings about a doom loop of BART station closures and deep cuts to Muni service have you on edge (opens in new tab)<\/a>, well, that\u2019s part of the plan.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A life preserver for the two agencies \u2014as well as 10 other Bay Area public transit operators \u2014 is in the hands of the public. In November, voters will decide on a regional sales tax measure that would raise funds to close severe transit budget shortfalls due to a lagging post-pandemic recovery.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The masterminds of the campaign, known as Connect Bay Area, have centered on a clear strategy to encourage taxpayers to pull the lever: scare the crap out of them. It\u2019s intense but effective. Political experts say campaigns that lean hard on the worst-case scenario can be extremely persuasive if the stakes are high enough. Here, the threat is stark: Without new revenue, transit agencies face deep cuts \u2014 or even complete closure.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Similarly, last year\u2019s Proposition 50 campaign leaned on grave warnings (opens in new tab)<\/a> that congressional district lines must be redrawn to prevent them from further entrenching right-wing power and hamstringing Democrats in upcoming elections.\u00a0<\/p>\n

BART is particularly screwed. The agency faces a roughly $350 million budget deficit in the next fiscal year and has warned that if it doesn\u2019t get a windfall of cash, it will likely have to close 10 stations by January and five more by July 2027. While it has secured a $590 million loan (opens in new tab)<\/a> from the state, it can spend the money only if the tax measure passes, since the revenue will be used to pay back the loan.<\/p>\n

If it can\u2019t safely run a scaled-back train system with 15 closed stations, the agency warns, BART service could cease altogether within two years (opens in new tab)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat isn\u2019t political messaging; it\u2019s budget balancing facts,\u201d BART spokesperson Alicia Trost said.<\/p>\n

While it is legal for BART to endorse ballot measures, the SFMTA cannot under city policy, according to the City Attorney\u2019s office. However, both can share information about dire financial realities. BART has raised public awareness about what could happen if the measure fails through social media posts, public hearings, and news coverage.<\/p>\n

During a public meeting, BART staff described to the board of directors what would be needed to balance the shrunken budget: massive service cuts \u2014 including eliminating the Blue line \u2014 and station closures.<\/p>\n

BART directors reacted with alarm.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe way I see this entire scenario is kind of putting BART on life support,\u201d Barnali\u00a0Ghosh said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s been, to put it bluntly, a bummer to contemplate such draconian measures,\u201d said Robert Raburn.<\/p>\n

The SFMTA has stopped short of endorsing any ballot measure to fund itself \u2014 neither the regional sales tax nor a local parcel tax<\/a> that is slated to go before San Francisco voters at the same time \u2014 but has announced (opens in new tab)<\/a> the severe consequences of a failure to secure more money. Among the predictions: halving service to some Muni routes while eliminating others, no free Muni for youth, and the elimination of cable cars. \u201cThe future of Muni is at stake,\u201d an SFMTA blog post (opens in new tab)<\/a> reads.<\/p>\n

But the fear of doubled commute times, killed lines, and traffic chaos is the point. Think of it as a carrot-and-stick strategy that\u2019s pretty much all stick.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople react to threats more than rewards,\u201d said political consultant Jim Ross. \u201cNegative messaging is always more powerful than positive messaging.\u201d<\/p>\n

Muni has a similar deficit \u2014 $307 million \u2014 and has taken a similar fire-and-brimstone (opens in new tab)<\/a> tack, predicting that it will run up to half as many buses or trains on some lines, shut down lines that have low ridership, end cable car service, and operate dirty trains. \u201cDevastating<\/a>\u201d and \u201cterrifying (opens in new tab)<\/a>\u201d are among the most popular descriptors of the potential cuts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"AThe SFMTA has publicly shared its budget deficit and the need for service cuts to address it. | Source: Jeremy Chen\/The Standard<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have a responsibility to be transparent with our customers and constituents about financial information, impacts, and outcomes as they relate to our budget planning process,\u201d said an SFMTA spokesperson.<\/p>\n

Via public meetings and reports, transit agencies can tacitly make the case for why voters should support the ballot measures, without running afoul of laws that prohibit them from campaigning.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThey can lay down the situation to make it easy for the campaign to connect voters to the answer,\u201d said John Whitehurst, a partner at BMWL Public Affairs.<\/p>\n

The website of the Connect Bay Area (opens in new tab)<\/a> campaign, which is in favor of the new sales tax, has banners warning of BART slashing trains from 4,200 a week to 500, 50% Muni service cuts, and Caltrain eliminating weekend trains.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Stoking fears of a BART shutdown is especially effective while recent transit meltdowns<\/a> are fresh in voters\u2019 minds, Ross said.<\/p>\n

Reminding voters what they stand to lose can broaden the message beyond core transit riders to suburban motorists who fear increased congestion.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThey may want to go to a Giants game and not pay $100 for parking,\u201d Ross said.<\/p>\n

\"ABART has warned in public meetings that service cuts, which would be made if a regional tax measure isn\u2019t approved in November, could lead to more congestion. | Source: Paul Kuroda for The Standard<\/p>\n

The tax measure\u2019s campaign calls public transportation \u201cthe heartbeat of the Bay Area.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s about the Bay Area, and this is what you\u2019ll lose if it doesn\u2019t pass,\u201d said SF State political scientist Jason McDaniel. \u201cThey\u2019re trying to appeal to a broader identity.\u201d<\/p>\n

A November poll (opens in new tab)<\/a> on the regional tax measure from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission found that 58% of respondents agreed with the idea that public transit is important to the Bay Area, versus 47% two years prior. The survey also found that 56% of voters said they\u2019d support the regional measure \u2014\u00a0more than the simple majority needed for passage.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Political campaign expert Jason Overman said Bay Area voters are generally fatigued by tax measures. But messaging that can break through functions to convince the electorate that the stakes are really that high.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe campaign\u2019s job is to communicate with voters that this is not a drill,\u201d he said. \u201cThen voters can ask themselves, is this a doomsday situation or not, and do I want to find out?\u201d<\/p>\n

Correction: This article has been updated to amend an earlier statement that BART cannot endorse ballot measures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If the near-constant warnings about a doom loop of BART station closures and deep cuts to Muni service…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":191033,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[3767,3768,13,5323,101,103,102,104,106,105,5449],"class_list":{"0":"post-191032","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-san-francisco","8":"tag-bart","9":"tag-muni","10":"tag-politics","11":"tag-public-transportation","12":"tag-san-francisco","13":"tag-san-francisco-headlines","14":"tag-san-francisco-news","15":"tag-sf","16":"tag-sf-headlines","17":"tag-sf-news","18":"tag-sfmta"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191032"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191032\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/191033"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}