![\"PPIC](\"https:\/\/www.mercurynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SJM-L-GOVPOLL-0226-90.webp\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe Public Policy Institute of California released its latest statewide survey this week which found five candidates are essentially in a \u201cstatistical dead heat\u201d among likely voters. The poll, which was conducted Feb. 3-11 and surveyed 1,657 residents, placed Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton in the lead at 14%, followed by former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter at 13%, Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 12%, Democratic East Bay Rep. Eric Swalwell at 11% and billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer, who is also a Democrat, at 10%.<\/p>\n
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Those results largely fall within the survey\u2019s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, effectively putting the frontrunners in a tie, and\u00a0mirror other recent independent polls. A survey conducted by Emerson College<\/a> on Feb. 13-14 also found Hilton (17.1%) in the lead, followed by Swalwell (14.1%), Bianco (13.5%), Porter (9.8%) and then Steyer (8.8%).<\/p>\n \u201cThree months out from the June primary, the top two slots in the gubernatorial race are up for grabs,\u201d Mark Baldassare, PPIC\u2019s Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy, said in a news release about the poll.<\/p>\n How each candidate will tackle the state\u2019s affordability crisis and the cost of living was \u201cvery important\u201d to 61% of likely voters \u2014 and even more so to residents under the age of 35, renters and those making under $40,000 a year.<\/p>\n \u201cVoters feel hammered by cost-of-living realities, so affordability will be a defining issue for them,\u201d Baldassare said.<\/p>\n Other candidates that fell outside of the top five included: former health secretary and Attorney General Xavier Becerra at 5%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 5%, former state Controller Betty Yee at 5%, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan at 3%, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond at 2% and former state Assemblymember Ian Calderon at 1%.<\/p>\n Mahan, who enjoys significant backing from Silicon Valley technology leaders<\/a>, was a late entrant, joining the race Jan. 29<\/a>, but with a significant haul in campaign funding.<\/p>\n A large swath of California voters, though, still remain undecided on who they\u2019d like to see succeed Newsom as he terms out of office and eyes a potential presidential run in 2028. PPIC\u2019s poll showed 10% of respondents didn\u2019t have a chosen candidate compared to the 21% of voters undecided in the Emerson College survey, while 48% of likely voters also said they weren\u2019t following the governor\u2019s race very closely.<\/p>\n