Ryan Warsofsky gave a perhaps unexpected reason for opting for Kiefer Sherwood over Collin Graf on the Macklin Celebrini line.<\/p>\n
The line of San Jose Sharks youngsters, Celebrini, Graf, and Will Smith, has been a fan favorite. But?<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you look at the analytics, that line is not as good as everyone says it was. If you really look into the numbers,\u201d Warsofsky said on Sunday. \u201cYou watch the eye test, yeah, they score a couple goals, and that\u2019s what everyone sees. But there\u2019s also some deficiencies with that line together. Doesn\u2019t mean we won\u2019t try it again, at some point.\u201d<\/p>\n
What analytics were lagging?<\/p>\n
\u201cExpected goals for and goals against, I would say the biggest thing,\u201d Warsofsky said. \u201cPuck possession would be another one. I\u2019m not going to go through the long, long list of everything we go through, but I would say that\u2019s the biggest ones.\u201d<\/p>\n
Per Natural Stat Trick, Graf-Celebrini-Smith at 5-on-5 had a 40.38 Expected Goals For % and 41.18 Corsi For %. Just for comparison, Celebrini\u2019s most regular line this season is with Smith and Tyler Toffoli, a trio that sports a 46.88 xGF % and 47.27 CF %. Small sample size, but Smith-Celebrini-Sherwood has excelled in these categories with a 57.6 xGF % and 54.43 CF %.<\/p>\n
Keep in mind, Natural Stat Trick is just a decent thumbnail for public consumption. Warsofsky and the San Jose Sharks might use different and\/or private xGF models for their evaluations.<\/p>\n
Interestingly too, Toffoli-Celebrini-Smith blows away Graf-Celebrini-Smith in counting stats, with a 73.91 Goals For % versus the latter\u2019s 57.1 %.<\/p>\n
Anyway, Warsofsky is more than just peripherally aware of hockey analytics.<\/p>\n
In that case, why does he keep leaning on, for example, his regular fourth line of Barclay Goodrow-Zack Ostapchuk-Ryan Reaves, 40.11 xGF % and 43.11 CF %?<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you look at it, some lines are doing well in expected goals for, goals against. Some lines that are good possession lines. There\u2019s good [creating turnovers] line. I mean, you can go through [a lot],\u201d Warsofsky said. \u201cThere\u2019s a rabbit hole you can go down through with analytics. Doesn\u2019t mean we make our decision solely on analytics.\u201d<\/p>\n