{"id":202176,"date":"2026-03-03T13:01:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T13:01:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/202176\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T13:01:36","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T13:01:36","slug":"column-scary-time-for-california-democrats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/202176\/","title":{"rendered":"Column: Scary time for California Democrats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

SACRAMENTO\u00a0\u2014\u00a0The race for California governor couldn\u2019t be much closer. And that\u2019s scary for Democrats.<\/a> <\/p>\n

Only the top two vote-getters in the June 2 primary \u2014 regardless of their party \u2014 will advance to the November election. And although still unlikely, it\u2019s increasingly conceivable that both could be Republicans.<\/p>\n

\u201cScare tactics,\u201d claim naysaying Democrats of such speculation.<\/p>\n

But Democrats should have heeded scary rumblings 10 years ago when long shot Donald Trump was first running for president \u2014 and not buried their heads in the sand again two years ago when Joe Biden was feebly seeking reelection.<\/p>\n

You’re reading the L.A. Times Politics newsletter <\/p>\n

George Skelton and Michael Wilner cover the insights, legislation, players and politics you need to know in 2024. In your inbox Monday and Thursday mornings. <\/p>\n

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They ignored the warning signs and paid the price.<\/p>\n

Now, the latest independent poll of likely voters<\/a> shows that Republican candidates are running in two of the top three places for governor \u2014 meaning it\u2019s possible both could qualify for the November ballot, guaranteeing the first election of a GOP chief executive in 20 years.<\/p>\n

The best odds are on one Democrat and one Republican finishing in the top two \u2014 virtually assuring a Democratic victory in November.<\/p>\n

California is too solidly Democrat \u2014 and President Trump too despised here \u2014 to envision a Republican beating a Democrat to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom.<\/p>\n

But Democrats could beat themselves if the current field of candidates remains intact<\/a>. There essentially are eight Democrats and only two Republicans competing in the primary.<\/p>\n

If the combined Democratic vote is splintered among the eight Democratic contestants, the two Republicans could end up finishing first and second.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s hard to come up with the math that makes that work,\u201d asserts Mark Baldassare, polling director for the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. He just completed a survey in which \u201ca lot of things show that a Democrat and Republican [top-two finish] is the likely outcome,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

But political data guru Paul Mitchell has been running primary election simulations and after Baldassare\u2019s latest poll, he calculated the chances of an all-Republican finish at 18%.<\/p>\n

That seems like the danger zone.<\/p>\n

The solution is for some Democratic candidates who have little hope of winning to drop out of the race \u2014 very soon, in fact. They shouldn\u2019t even file their official candidacy papers that are due by Friday. After that deadline, it\u2019s impossible to remove their names from the ballot even if they\u2019re no longer really running.<\/p>\n

The PPIC poll, released last week, showed a statistical tie between the top five contenders \u2014 three Democrats and two Republicans, all within 4 percentage points of each other.<\/p>\n

The breakdown:<\/p>\n

Republican former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton, 14%; Democratic former Rep. Katie Porter, 13%; Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, 12%; Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, 11%; Democratic hedge fund founder Tom Steyer, 10%.<\/p>\n

Then came five Democratic stragglers.<\/p>\n

Former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former state Controller Betty Yee each had 5%. Trailing them were San Jos\u00e9 Mayor Matt Mahan with 3% and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond at 2%.<\/p>\n

Mahan\u2019s a centrist wild card who jumped into the race while the polling was underway. So, there\u2019s a valid excuse for his poor showing.<\/p>\n

Swalwell and Steyer entered late last year and apparently took votes away from Porter and Becerra.<\/p>\n

Porter and Yee are the only prominent female candidates, but they aren\u2019t particularly being helped by female voters, the poll showed.<\/p>\n

There was good news in the survey for Democrats hoping to pick up more congressional seats in California and help the party seize control of the House of Representatives from Republicans.<\/p>\n

Asked whether they\u2019d vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress, 62% replied Democrat and only 36% Republican. That\u2019s not surprising, since Democrats already hold 43 of California\u2019s 52 seats.<\/p>\n

Newsom and the Democratic-controlled Legislature last year gerrymandered California\u2019s House districts with the goal of gaining at least five more seats. Voters approved that move by passing Proposition 50.<\/p>\n

The especially bright news in the poll for Democrats was that in the five new House districts considered the most competitive, Democrats had a slight edge in voter preference. That was also true in districts held by Republicans.<\/p>\n

Additionally, Democrats are much more enthusiastic than Republicans about voting in the congressional contests.<\/p>\n

In the competitive districts, nearly two-thirds of voters disapprove of tactics by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in corralling undocumented immigrants. And 57% disapprove of Trump.<\/p>\n

Anti-Trump sentiment is extremely high among all voters \u2014 30% approval and 70% disapproval.<\/p>\n

One head-scratcher in the poll was the voters\u2019 denial about their political polarization. They were asked what qualification they considered most important in choosing a governor. Only 6% said it was the candidate\u2019s political party. Rubbage.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are very few people who are voting outside their party,\u201d Baldassare notes.<\/p>\n

Two-thirds of voters answered that a candidate\u2019s stand on issues is the most important consideration for them. Voters of both parties, plus independents, rated a candidate\u2019s position on \u201caffordability\u201d as \u201cvery\u201d important \u2014 and it topped their list of concerns.<\/p>\n

A majority of voters said California is \u201cgoing in the wrong direction.\u201d This is a gloomy finding for Democrats who have been ruling state government \u2014 and most large cities \u2014 for many years.<\/p>\n

But a much larger majority believe the country also is headed in the wrong direction. Back at ya, Republicans. It\u2019s the GOP that\u2019s in total control of the federal government.<\/p>\n

Both parties in California have reasons to run scared this year.<\/p>\n

What else you should be reading<\/p>\n

The must-read: California Democrats unite against Trump, differ on vision for state\u2019s future<\/a>
Salud: Retired 100-year-old fighter pilot from Escondido receives Medal of Honor<\/a>
The L.A. Times Special: Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris have traveled parallel paths. Will they collide in 2028?<\/a> <\/p>\n

Until next week,
George Skelton<\/p>\n

\u2014
Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here<\/a> to get it in your inbox. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"SACRAMENTO\u00a0\u2014\u00a0The race for California governor couldn\u2019t be much closer. And that\u2019s scary for Democrats. Only the top two…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":202177,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[2208,7,9,8,2212,2210,2216,2209,2213,418,2220,2221,2219,2218,2211,2217,2214,2215],"class_list":{"0":"post-202176","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-california","8":"tag-biden","9":"tag-california","10":"tag-california-headlines","11":"tag-california-news","12":"tag-court-pick","13":"tag-essential-politics","14":"tag-first-black-woman","15":"tag-gender","16":"tag-high-court","17":"tag-history","18":"tag-jefferson","19":"tag-media-coverage","20":"tag-nominee","21":"tag-political-criticism","22":"tag-race","23":"tag-stereotypes","24":"tag-supreme-court","25":"tag-women"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=202176"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202176\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/202177"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=202176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=202176"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=202176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}