The \u201cOutlook OC 2026\u201d event held March 3 in Newport Beach and moderated by Lucy Dunn, CEO emeritus of the Orange County Business Council, also featured economist Mira Farka of Cal State Fullerton and political strategist Cori Takkinen of Townsend Public Affairs.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo One is Happy\u201d<\/p>\n
Gould, who directs the UCI-OC Poll, opened his remarks by outlining five major trends his polling research is tracking as the county heads toward the 2026 gubernatorial and federal elections.<\/p>\n
The first and most striking: a sweeping, bipartisan dissatisfaction with government at virtually every level.<\/p>\n
“When we ask the question, \u2018is the federal government on the right track or wrong track?\u2019 two-thirds say, \u2018wrong track,\u2019 \u201d Gould said. \u201cState government? Two-thirds say, \u2018wrong track.\u2019 \u201d<\/p>\n
The agreement ends there.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat is 80 percent of Democrats saying the federal government is on the wrong track and 80 percent of Republicans saying the state is on the wrong track,\u201d he said. \u201cThe only thing Democrats and Republicans agree on right now is that they think government is not doing the right thing. No one is happy.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"Farka](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/farka-gould.png\")
The exception, Gould noted, was Orange County itself.<\/p>\n
When asked whether the county is on the right track, a plurality of residents across party lines said yes, Gould said. \u201cThat is Democrat, Republican and Independent \u2014 the one area where people were in agreement.\u201d<\/p>\n
Affordability Anxiety<\/p>\n
The second major trend Gould identified is anxiety over the cost of living.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur cost of living becomes the thing we hear over and over and over again in our polling,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The anxiety is not evenly distributed, however. About half of Orange County\u2019s residents report that their own financial situation is good or very good. But among renters, the picture is starkly different.<\/p>\n
\u201cA quarter of Orange County residents are worried about being evicted,\u201d Gould said.<\/p>\n
Even residents who feel financially secure, he added, share the concern about affordability \u2014 particularly as it affects others. And, when Gould’s polling asks what residents actually mean by \u201caffordable housing,\u201d the answer is not what many policymakers assume.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey are not talking about housing for the homeless,\u201d he said. \u201cThey are talking about housing for their children.\u201d<\/p>\n
Purple County<\/p>\n
Gould described Orange County as one of only three large counties in America, out of the 25 largest, that are genuinely \u201cpurple.\u201d The other two are Maricopa County, Arizona, and Tarrant County, Texas.<\/p>\n
That status, he argued, shows up in how residents think about issues.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhether you are Democrat, Republican, or Independent, when we ask you in polling, housing and cost of living is at the top of everybody’s list,\u201d Gould said.<\/p>\n
He noted surprising areas of cross-partisan agreement: a sense that ICE enforcement has gone too far, dissatisfaction with President Trump\u2019s performance, and strong support for abortion rights \u2014 even among Trump voters.<\/p>\n
\u201cIndeed, a majority of Trump\u2019s voters in 2024 in Orange County said that they were pro-choice,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Where the partisan divide sharpens, Gould pointed out, is in funding priorities.<\/p>\n
\u201cHousing is the No. 1 funding priority for Democrats and Independents, law enforcement is the No. 1 priority for Republicans,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Education consistently ranked third or fourth across all groups \u2014 while higher education and infrastructure came in at the bottom.<\/p>\n
On immigration<\/p>\n
Gould also addressed the politically charged question of immigration and enforcement.<\/p>\n
He described a poll conducted before the current administration\u2019s intensified ICE operations, in which Orange County residents were asked whether they preferred a path to permanent residency or deportation for undocumented immigrants.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat we found was that 60 percent of Orange County residents wanted to see a path to residency,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Even at a moment when the President\u2019s border policies might have been polling favorably, the county leaned toward a more expansive approach.<\/p>\n
\u201cSince the ICE enforcement, a number of polls in this state have been showing that the issue has gone against the President and the Republican Party,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The American Dream<\/p>\n
Gould talked about a class he taught last fall quarter on California\u2019s future. He asked his students a simple question: how many of you believe in the promise of the American Dream?<\/p>\n
\u201cI had about 50 students,\u201d he said. \u201cOnly five, 10 percent, said they believed in the American Dream.\u201d<\/p>\n
When he asked his students why, three reasons emerged: they believed they could never afford a house in Orange County; they felt shut out of meaningful participation in government and business; and students from immigrant backgrounds felt they were being vilified rather than welcomed.<\/p>\n
\u201cI’m worried about where we\u2019re headed,\u201d Gould said.<\/p>\n
Purple Solutions<\/p>\n
Asked whether Orange County could serve as a national model for bringing divided communities together, Gould did not hesitate and announced the School of Social Ecology\u2019s \u201cDialogue During a Time of Disruption\u201d series. The next talk will center on immigration. It is being planned for May 5 and will be presented by the School in partnership with OC Forum.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are bringing speakers from around the country here on contentious issues, where they can actually talk to one another and provide an example of how to do that,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat we\u2019re saying is: these are purple solutions for a divided America.\u201d<\/p>\n
Gould underscored the urgency of that mission with a cultural observation.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf any of you has a college-age kid or younger, they don’t know the world in which people from the left and right can talk with one another. Sometimes they can’t even be in the same room with one another. That is not a recipe for an enduring Republic,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The dean closed out the panel discussion with a description of the county\u2019s greatest strength: its purpleness.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are a third, a third, a third: Democrat, Republican, Independent. We are roughly a third white, a third Latino, a third Asian American,\u201d Gould said. \u201cWhen we picture what makes America work, it\u2019s here. The fact that we have that kind of diversity means that we keep ourselves within the bumpers. We don\u2019t go too far left, we don\u2019t go too far right.\u201d<\/p>\n
As for the greatest threat, he said \u201cour potential inability to hold people here once we\u2019ve educated them, once we\u2019ve gotten them started in jobs and they want to put down roots and continue to live here. We have to find a way for them to be able to afford to stay.\u201d<\/p>\n
The other panelists offered their expertise on the economy and politics.<\/p>\n
Farka characterized the current economic moment as one of \u201cresilient anxiety,\u201d noting that while underlying fundamentals remain relatively sound, rising tariffs, now averaging 10%, up from 2.5% at the start of last year, combined with labor supply constraints from declining birth rates and reduced immigration, are creating meaningful headwinds for growth.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe labor market has been weird for two reasons,\u201d she said. \u201cOn the demand side, firms are very hesitant because of high uncertainty. On the supply side, we have an aging demographic, fewer births and significantly more deportations.\u201d<\/p>\n
Takkinen offered a brisk tour of the California electoral landscape, warning that a crowded Democratic field in the governor’s race \u2014 nine candidates with no clear frontrunner as of the March 6 filing deadline \u2014 could mathematically hand the top-two primary spots to Republicans.<\/p>\n