Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight\u2019s college basketball game between the New Mexico Lobos and the San Jose State Spartans.<\/p>\n
San Jose State walks into this Mountain West quarterfinal wearing the record of an 11 seed and the momentum of something much more dangerous. The Spartans are 9-23, but they just beat Boise State 84-74 on Wednesday in the highest-scoring Mountain West tournament game in program history. New Mexico is 22-9, finished 13-7 in the league, and got the bye into this spot. That is the tension tonight. San Jose State already has tournament blood in its mouth, while the Lobos bring the fresher legs and the much stronger full-season Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight\u2019s college basketball game between the New Mexico Lobos<\/a> and the San Jose State Spartans<\/a>.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s how I\u2019ll play it. I\u2019ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on\u00a0DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits<\/a> for more betting plays.<\/p>\n The Lobos are at 80.2 points per game, 53.7% effective field goal shooting, 35.7 rebounds, a 28.3% offensive-rebound rate, and a 0.367 FTA\/FGA mark. San Jose State sits at 70.6 points, 49.5% eFG, and 29.1 rebounds, while allowing a brutal 56.8% opponent eFG. But the recent version of New Mexico is not some lockdown favorite. The Lobos just allowed 82 to Colorado State and 94 to Utah State in their last two games, and TeamRankings\u2019 recent splits show San Jose State scoring 76.7 points per game over its last three. That is why this spread is more interesting than the records alone suggest.<\/p>\n The player layer is what makes the dog feel live. Colby Garland (G) is averaging 20.3 points and 4.5 assists, then followed that with 22 points, five rebounds, three assists, and three steals against Boise. San Jose State\u2019s official recap says he has now scored 20 or more in 11 straight games. Jermaine Washington (G) added 18 points and six assists in the Boise upset, and Adrian Myers (F) posted 14 points and 10 rebounds a night after entering as the team\u2019s season rebound leader. New Mexico still has the deeper scorer tree. Jake Hall (G) leads the Lobos at 16.3 points per game and just dropped a freshman-record 32 at Utah State. Tomislav Buljan (F) leads them with 10.3 rebounds per game and had 11 points with 13 boards in that same game, while Uriah Tenette (G) added 14 points and a career-high seven assists. San Jose State has the hottest individual guard. New Mexico still has more ways to hurt you.<\/p>\n I do not want to overweight the first meeting, because December San Jose State is not March San Jose State. But the series does tell us what a cover path looks like. New Mexico won 88-65 in Albuquerque, then 90-80 in San Jose. The January game matters more tonight. San Jose State got to 80, took care of the ball, and still lost because New Mexico shot 54% from the field, 11-of-23 from three, and 21-of-24 at the line. Jake Hall scored 27, Tomislav Buljan had 17 points and 10 rebounds, and the Lobos led for 97% of the night. That is the key lesson. San Jose State can score enough to make this a real spread game. It still needs New Mexico\u2019s efficiency to cool off, because a clean Spartans offensive night was not enough by itself.<\/p>\n Shortcode<\/p>\n San Jose State vs. New Mexico<\/a> pick, best bet<\/p>\n The tournament-readiness argument cuts both ways, and that is where this bet gets interesting. San Jose State looked sharp Wednesday, holding Boise State to 37.9% shooting and 5-of-23 from three while winning the turnover battle and controlling the game for long stretches. But Garland played all 40 minutes, Washington played 37, and the emotional tax of an upset matters when the turnaround is less than 24 hours. That is where New Mexico\u2019s late-game profile starts looming. TeamRankings has the Lobos averaging 44.2 second-half points per game, while San Jose State allows 39.6 after halftime. So the Spartans have already proven they are ready to compete in this building. The question is whether they can still hold that level once New Mexico\u2019s depth and scoring waves start pressing on tired legs.<\/p>\n I\u2019m still taking San Jose State +15.5. New Mexico is the more likely winner, and I am not pretending otherwise. But this number is taxing the Lobos for full-season superiority while ignoring how live San Jose State\u2019s current offense has become and how much New Mexico\u2019s defense has leaked lately. Garland gives the Spartans a real star-level scorer, Myers and Washington are supporting him well enough, and the January meeting already showed this matchup can land in the 80s without turning into a blowout. The way it dies is obvious: San Jose State runs out of legs, loses the glass late, and New Mexico\u2019s second-half scoring turns a competitive game into a 17-point final. But at this number, I want the points. San Jose State +15.5 is the bet.<\/p>\n Final score: New Mexico 84, San Jose State 72.<\/p>\n Best bet: San Jose State +15.5 (-110) vs. New Mexico<\/a><\/p>\n Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here<\/a>!<\/p>\n