In the summer of 2025, as Donald Trump rolled out his plan to deploy the national guard to Washington DC and Chicago, he suggested other American cities were overrun with violence and could soon see federal troops: Memphis, Los Angeles, New York.<\/p>\n
Oakland, the president argued<\/a>, was beyond saving. \u201cAnd then you have, of course, Baltimore and Oakland. They\u2019re so far gone. We don\u2019t even talk about that any more,\u201d Trump said.<\/p>\n But as Trump was making these comments, Oakland was in the midst of a historic drop in homicides. The Bay Area city ended 2025 with 67 people killed, according to data from the Oakland police department, half of its 2021 high of 134.<\/p>\n It\u2019s the lowest number of violent deaths recorded in 25 years.<\/p>\n Chart showing the drop in homicides in Oakland<\/a><\/p>\n The news has been held up by city officials, community advocates and non-profit leaders as a sign that their respective and \u2013 sometimes combined \u2013 efforts to stem the violence are making a difference for those living in the city.<\/p>\n And it has proved especially meaningful given the ground that was lost during the Covid pandemic, when the city faced deep economic woes and more than 100 people<\/a> were killed in a single year for the first time since 2012.<\/p>\n \u201cThere was this narrative after the pandemic \u2013 and it carries into today \u2013 that things [in Oakland] are worse than they\u2019ve ever been,\u201d said Nicole Lee, the founder and executive director of Urban Peace Movement (UPM), a local non-profit. \u201cAnd sometimes these narratives get hijacked so people can use fear to control others. People sell products using fear, they win elections using fear. So it\u2019s important to acknowledge when we see improvements.\u201d<\/p>\n Local leaders each credit different trends when discussing the decline. Lee and other non-profit leaders emphasize the city\u2019s strong community networks and investments in historically neglected neighborhoods. The police chief says new technology and better coordination with departments in neighboring cities has helped to solve crimes. They all agree, though, that there\u2019s no one magic solution to stopping shootings, car break-ins and burglaries. Rather, they say, cooperation among city leaders, community organizations and law enforcement has helped steer the people police have identified as driving the violence down a different path.<\/p>\n While the decrease is a promising sign, it does not completely capture the experiences of people living in the city of over 443,000, especially of those who have lost loved ones to violence.<\/p>\n Earlier this month, a 33-year-old woman and a 25-year-old man were killed and seven others were injured in a mass shooting at a bar<\/a> in the city\u2019s downtown.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s about trying to hold two perspectives at the same time, which is not an easy thing to do,\u201d said Lee. \u201cEven though there have been some gains made, even one loss of life to gun violence is devastating. For families, their life is never the same, and that has a real impact on our community and how we relate to each other in our day-to-day lives.\u201d<\/p>\n Nor has the decline been equally distributed. Residents of East and West Oakland, where shootings have historically been concentrated, are still subject to the lion\u2019s share of the gun violence. Twenty-eight of the 67 homicides last year happened in police areas five and six, which comprise East Oakland.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m generally happy that the headlines are illustrating and naming that there is a decrease in our city \u2013 a city that has historically been peppered by violence,\u201d said Caheri Gutierrez, an Oakland native and member of the city\u2019s public safety commission. \u201cBut the downside is when you are actually in Oakland, in the neighborhoods, and you see or you hear about a homicide or another criminal act against a community member, then you kind of question [the statistics].\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cNumbers are one thing, but the people and stories behind them are a whole other thing. What happened on Saturday is another example of that,\u201d Gutierrez added of the 8 March mass shooting.<\/p>\n Oakland is one of dozens of US cities where homicides have drastically declined in the past year, with numbers in some cases even returning below their pre-pandemic levels. The Trump administration has been eager to claim credit, pointing to its aggressive law-enforcement policies and immigration crackdown as driving the decline. Oakland leaders say the administration\u2019s tactics have done more harm than good, and the true motor of change lies within the city.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019ve been talking bad about my city for as long as I can remember,\u201d Lee, a fourth-generation Oakland native, said about comments she heard people make about the city growing up. \u201cPeople would say, \u2018Oh, you must be dodging bullets.\u2019 But there\u2019s a richness and a confluence of lots of history in this city that makes something really special.\u201d<\/p>\n Nicole Lee, the founder and executive director of Urban Peace Movement. Photograph: Felix Uribe Jr\/The GuardianPioneering gun prevention programs<\/p>\n Oakland, the California<\/a> port city along the San Francisco Bay, has long been known for its struggles with violence and its pioneering social and cultural movements. It\u2019s the birthplace of the Black Panther party and of Kamala Harris, and has been at the heart of social and civil rights activism in the US. It\u2019s also been at the forefront of community gun violence prevention programs.<\/p>\n Before the pandemic, the city had gained national<\/a> recognition for its success in lowering gun violence. From 2012 to 2019, killings dropped from 131 to 78<\/a>. Much of this decrease was attributed to the city\u2019s Ceasefire program, a groundbreaking collaboration between police, violence interventionists and faith leaders, to reach the small group of mostly young Black and Latino men who were driving most of the city\u2019s violence.<\/p>\n The relationship between the Oakland police department and the department of violence prevention began to deteriorate following a 2016 sex scandal<\/a> involving a minor, according to a 2023 audit of the program<\/a>. It led the Ceasefire strategy to shift from one that narrowly focused on the people at the center of the gun violence to one that was \u201cplace-based\u201d, with police zeroing in on troubled neighborhoods rather than individuals. The shift, Oakland\u2019s interim police chief, James Beere, said in a recent interview, was a grave mistake.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen we went away from the Ceasefire strategy, there was no proactive effort to prevent the violence, the relationships deteriorated, and it was more of a \u2018someone committed a crime, let\u2019s arrest them\u2019 approach,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n An Oakland police vehicle travels along Bancroft Avenue near 81st Ave. Photograph: Yalonda M James \/Hearst\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Pandemic-era stay-at-home orders added to the program\u2019s woes, cutting off the direct communication between city residents and violence prevention workers. Even as restrictions on gatherings disappeared, Ceasefire never regained its footing.<\/p>\n The program was restarted in 2023, returning to its original focus. \u201cSix per cent of the population is picking up a gun. We laser-focus to hold them accountable,\u201d said Beere.<\/p>\n Police use weekly reviews of shootings to identify the small portion of the city\u2019s population responsible for the bulk of shootings. Program staff officers make contact with them, often in roundtable meetings known as call-ins that bring together police officers, faith leaders and violence interventionists, and implore those at risk of being on either side of a gun to accept the short- and long-term resources that could keep them safe, alive and out of prison.<\/p>\n The program is led by the police and the city, but key to its success is its work with non-profits that offer healthcare, job training, housing support and therapy to those who live where violence is concentrated, said Holly Joshi, the chief of the city\u2019s office of violence prevention. The partnerships ensure that the people who are actively engaged in violence, and others who are at high risk of getting in the mix, have somewhere to go after the call-ins.<\/p>\n \u201cFocused deterrence is the multi-pronged strategy. It requires all these system partners,\u201d Joshi said. \u201cOur office is a quarterback agency. We rely heavily on the community-based organizations for the other support they bring to the table.\u201d<\/p>\n Joshi, a Black East Oakland native who exudes calmness and confidence, has worked throughout city government and the police department on issues like sex trafficking and domestic violence.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re not feeling like we\u2019re in a space to do a victory lap, because homicides and shootings and violence are still huge, but we\u2019re glad to be ending 2025 with double-digit reductions,\u201d she said. \u201cOf course, when you walk away from a strategy for so many years, the question should always come up: is this the right strategy for the types of gun violence Oakland is experiencing? The feedback loop of reductions is telling us yes.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe failure of going away from it and then the reinvestment is just double confirmation that it works,\u201d echoed Beere.<\/p>\n The network of community organizations that Ceasefire relies on is an old one, and has been able to grow with support from philanthropic organizations, as well as federal, state and local aid. The non-profit Youth Alive! established the US\u2019s first hospital-based violence intervention program. Destiny Arts provides children and teens with dance and martial arts classes and a safe space to express themselves. Roots Community Health Center offers medical care, including doula services. Trybe organizes events like block parties where neighbors can connect and socialize. They all work towards one goal: allowing Oakland\u2019s families and residents to enjoy the safety and resources that they have called for for generations.<\/p>\n Urban Peace Movement (UPM), Lee\u2019s organization, was founded in 2006, when nearly 150 people were killed, mostly with guns, and the city was experiencing one of its deadliest years<\/a> in recorded history. Then and now, her goal has been to bring peace and healing to the mostly Black and Latino people in the city who have been disproportionately harmed by violence. The organization trains young people to advocate for solutions to issues like gun violence and youth incarceration. The program targets young people living in the working-class neighborhoods where their neighbors and loved ones are overrepresented in the justice system and as victims of violent acts like robberies and homicides, and aims to show them how to help solve their community\u2019s most entrenched challenges.<\/p>\n To Rakeem Naylor, one of UPM\u2019s members, it\u2019s clear that efforts like these have played a crucial role in bringing gun violence down: \u201cI feel like we can definitely credit it to a lot of the programs right now.\u201d<\/p>\n Rakeem Naylor of UPM. Photograph: Felix Uribe Jr\/The Guardian<\/p>\n \u201cWe need to put kids into more sports, we need leaders,\u201d Naylor said. \u201cWhen I was younger I was guided the wrong way, because I didn\u2019t have a father and I looked up to others as older brothers. But they misguided me to the wrong places.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe challenge is that we\u2019re always in this fight politically about more police or more programs, and I think that gets in the way of the success,\u201d echoed Lee, UPM\u2019s executive director. \u201cI don\u2019t think we\u2019re asking for something radical. We\u2019re just saying that people in our communities deserve the same things people in safe neighborhoods have.\u201d<\/p>\n Policing changes<\/p>\n In addition to Ceasefire, Beere says other policing changes have contributed to the change. The homicide clearance rate in the city increased significantly<\/a> from 2024 to 2025. Better coordination with the county\u2019s probation department and other police departments across the Bay Area has helped Oakland police keep tabs on people who are repeatedly showing up on law enforcement\u2019s radar, or are coming out of incarceration and may be at risk of being attacked by rivals, Beere said.<\/p>\n The department is increasingly relying on license plate readers and surveillance video to address crimes ranging from shootings to carjackings and sideshows<\/a>. \u201cOur network and the addition of technology has helped us see more reductions. For sideshows, human trafficking, even the violence, we\u2019ve changed our strategy,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Caheri Gutierrez, an Oakland native and member of the public safety commission, says an upcoming increase in annual funding for the police, the department of violence prevention and the fire department through a new tax voters approved in 2024 will keep the momentum going.<\/p>\n Caheri Gutierrez at the Fruitvale Transit Village in Oakland. Photograph: Felix Uribe Jr\/The Guardian<\/p>\n But, she argued, those investments won\u2019t bring returns if young people, their families and even those caught in cycles of crime and shootings don\u2019t live in neighborhoods where they can enjoy safe parks and thriving businesses, or walk and drive along well-lit streets.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen people have access to healthy foods, vibrant environments and supportive services, they thrive,\u201d Gutierrez said. \u201cIf folks don\u2019t have access to work, culturally relevant healthcare and community spaces, they\u2019re more likely to engage in violence.\u201d<\/p>\n She points to a neighborhood that is close to her heart, and central to her work in the city: the Fruitvale.<\/p>\n Today, the Fruitvale neighborhood is known for its large Latino population, but in the early 20th century it was home to many European immigrants, with families from Portugal and Germany. When Black and Latino families were pushed out of West Oakland in the 1950s and 60s, many planted roots in the Fruitvale.<\/p>\n In 2020, 19 people were killed in the area. Homicides hit a peak of 22 in 2022, but plummeted to six in 2024 and saw a small increase to 10 in 2025, according to Oakland police department data.<\/p>\n Map of homicides in Oakland by police area<\/a><\/p>\n The change, Gutierrez says, is the result of decades of hard work from community leaders to transform the area surrounding the local transit hub into a small business and community resource corridor.<\/p>\n Gutierrez learned to read and write in English at the Cesar Chavez library, and attended elementary school around the corner from where her current office sits.<\/p>\n Where she remembers a parking lot separating a train station from a bus platform across the road, there are now apartment buildings filled with affordable housing, legal and health clinics, and locally owned restaurants and small businesses. And in an area where people used to loiter, sell drugs and rob commuters, teens, adults and seniors chat at a coffee shop called Powderface and families walk together from the nearby Head Start program.<\/p>\n Having coffee shops and busy shopping districts for people to walk through plays a significant role in the city\u2019s success in lowering homicides, robberies and property crime, Gutierrez said.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a model that works. It\u2019s data-driven and should be replicated throughout all neighborhoods in Oakland and throughout the nation,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n \u201cFruitvale is one thing \u2013 we\u2019re doing great, we\u2019re making progress. But Oakland can\u2019t thrive unless all of Oakland thrives,\u201d Gutierrez continued. \u201cSo expanding this kind of model to West Oakland and deep East Oakland, where it\u2019s greatly needed, I think, is also going to help us continue to see a steady decline in violence.\u201d<\/p>\n A view of East Oakland from King Estate Open Space Park. Photograph: Tim Hussin\/The Guardian<\/p>\n Despite the number of killings being half of what they were in 2021, the areas that see the most bloodshed have remained the same.<\/p>\n \u201cI think they\u2019re encouraging, and I think they\u2019re important to talk about,\u201d said Lee about the 2025 homicide numbers. \u201cBut it feels difficult to celebrate them because any time a family or a group of friends experiences a loss like that, even one, it\u2019s devastating.\u201d<\/p>\n Tim Conover<\/a>, a 40-year-old father of two, was shot and killed at his own Fourth of July barbecue. Curtis Haynes<\/a> a 28-year-old security guard at Oakland\u2019s Highland hospital, died after being shot in East Oakland. Carla Lee<\/a>, 29, was shot outside her home just after stepping out to pick up her niece and nephew.<\/p>\n In addition to the stubborn presence of gun violence and the trauma that reverberates through families and communities, businesses are still dealing with break-ins, threats and harassment, Gutierrez said. Lately, she said, more of these stories are going unreported due to an increased hesitation<\/a> to interact with law enforcement following sweeping immigration raids across the country.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s quantitative data around the decrease, but it\u2019s also very important to have the qualitative data that really reflects the narratives and the experiences of the community members,\u201d Gutierrez said. \u201cThe business owners who are experiencing break-ins into their shops; mothers with children who are walking and being robbed midday; the day laborers on the corners \u2013 [they] are also being subjected to this kind of violence.\u201d<\/p>\n Killings reduced in other US cities<\/p>\n Oakland is not the only city in the US that has seen stunning declines in gun violence in the past year.<\/p>\n Though the federal government has yet to release national homicide data for 2025, a recent report<\/a> by the Council on Criminal Justice, analyzing statistics in dozens of American cities, points to a 21% decline in the homicide rate between 2024 and 2025 nationally.<\/p>\n Killings are down in cities large and small, in the south and the midwest. Detroit recorded<\/a> 203 people killed in 2024, a 60-year-low, and then saw further declines in 2025. In Chattanooga, Tennessee, homicides in 2025<\/a> were nearly half of what they were in the prior year, dropping from 27 deaths in 2024 to 14 the following year. Baltimore saw a double-digit decrease<\/a>, with killings dropping from 201 in 2024 to 133 last year.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not clear what, exactly, is driving this national decline.<\/p>\n Federal, state and local officials, police, researchers and community organizers have different explanations for why the numbers look the way they do. Some argue that the police and the courts have finally caught up post-pandemic. Others say that people returning to their normal routine plays a role. Some argue that the Biden administration\u2019s investments in community-based violence prevention are the greatest driver of the decrease.<\/p>\n The Trump administration has said its policies are behind the decline: \u201cIt is an indisputable fact that President Trump\u2019s immigration policies are saving American citizens from being killed, raped, and assaulted at the hands of criminal<\/a> illegal aliens with no right to be here,\u201d the White House said in January.<\/p>\n \u201cPresident Trump is reversing the chaos and carnage unleashed by Radical Left Democrats who turned our streets into war zones by coddling criminals and opening our borders,\u201d it wrote <\/a>two weeks later.<\/p>\n