As of Monday afternoon, Mahan\u2019s odds stood at 12% on a $4 million governor\u2019s race betting pool\u00a0on Kalshi<\/a>, ranking him higher than Steyer at 10%, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, both with 8% and Porter at 4%. Compare that to traditional polling by Emerson College, where survey respondents gave Mahan a 3.2% favorability rating while Steyer got 11%, Hilton got 13% and Porter got 8.4%<\/p>\n A $2 million\u00a0betting pool on Polymarket<\/a>\u00a0also had Mahan\u2019s odds at 8% on Monday. Betters ranked Mahan\u2019s odds above Bianco at 7% and Porter at 4%, while the Emerson College poll puts Republican Bianco above Mahan at 11% favorability. Candidates\u2019 positions on the betting sites fluctuate daily.<\/p>\n Representatives for Mahan\u2019s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.<\/p>\n Science collides with social sentiment<\/p>\n While neither betting pool puts Mahan in the top two spots, they signal a collision of differing political prediction industries.<\/p>\n The Emerson, Berkeley and Public Policy Institute polls are scientific. They capture political opinions at one moment in time, surveying sample sizes that range between 500 and 1,600 respondents with a roughly 3% margin of error.<\/p>\n Favorability trends on online betting markets are shaped differently. The sample size depends on how many traders buy in \u2014 and can affect the direction of candidates\u2019 odds. And as traders try to win money, experts say they\u2019re more likely to bet on someone they believe has the best shot at winning, not someone they like or would vote for themselves.<\/p>\n \u201cPolitics has always been about the horse race \u2014 Who\u2019s going to win? That\u2019s the sexy thing in politics,\u201d Mindy Romero, a political sociologist and founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California, told San Jos\u00e9 Spotlight. \u201cOnline betting is just another type of horse race.\u201d<\/p>\n Polling\u2019s purpose is generally understood to be for public consumption, Romero said. And while not all polling is statistically sound or trustworthy, the practice has a reputation for being academic and unbiased.<\/p>\n \u201cOnline betting platforms are not scientific samples,\u201d Romero said.<\/p>\n She added she doesn\u2019t believe the online betting markets will immediately influence the governor\u2019s race, since it\u2019s still early and the betting trends aren\u2019t widely publicized. Though in recent months, these betting sites have tried to puncture mainstream punditry. In December, Kalshi\u00a0inked a partnership with CNN<\/a>\u00a0as the national news network\u2019s official prediction market partner.<\/p>\n \u201cPolls tell us where an election stands today, while betting markets tell you where those who place bets think the race will end up.\u201d<\/p>\n Spencer Kimball, director of polling at Emerson College<\/p>\n \u201cI would assume, like anyone, they want to get more eyes on what they\u2019re doing because they want more people placing bets. That\u2019s good for business,\u201d Romero said. \u201cBut we have to question what their motivations are for getting involved in politics.\u201d<\/p>\n While Mahan\u2019s odds have trended downward on both prediction markets this year, they surged as high as 36% on Polymarket on Jan. 29 \u2014\u00a0the day he entered the race<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 and 33% on Kalshi on Jan. 30.<\/p>\n \u201cPolls tell us where an election stands today, while betting markets tell you where those who place bets think the race will end up,\u201d Spencer Kimball, director of polling at Emerson College, told San Jos\u00e9 Spotlight. \u201cThese bets can be based on the polls, finance and general name recognition. Another notable difference is that surveys are of voters living in the state, whereas anyone can place a bet on an election.\u201d<\/p>\n Forecasting elections<\/p>\n Jack Such, a spokesperson for Kalshi, agrees that polls and prediction markets measure different things. Comparing the two is like comparing apples to oranges, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cMahan being at 13% on Kalshi while polling at 5% isn\u2019t necessarily reflective of him being overpriced relative to his polling,\u201d Such told San Jos\u00e9 Spotlight. \u201cMahan \u2018Yes\u2019 traders likely believe that his support, including presumably his polling numbers, will increase over the next months.\u201d<\/p>\n Such maintains prediction markets have become the \u201csingle most accurate method\u201d for forecasting future events such as elections. He argues polls are a \u201cvery important complement\u201d to prediction markets and help traders price outcomes.<\/p>\n \u201cBut (they) are ultimately less successful at forecasting eventual winners due to markets\u2019 ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd and incentivize accurate probabilities through financial stake,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Sacramento-based Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio said prediction markets are likely more favorable to Mahan because the people who participate in prediction markets are more tech savvy than voters at large. Mahan\u2019s gubernatorial campaign has\u00a0garnered massive fundraising<\/a>\u00a0support from Silicon Valley\u2019s billionaire tech elite.<\/p>\n \u201cVoters in the June primary tend to be older, whiter and richer than voters in November and I don\u2019t think they show up as predominantly in those markets as they do in polling,\u201d Maviglio told San Jos\u00e9 Spotlight.<\/p>\n Maviglio has been critical of the traditional polling conducted\u00a0in the race. He points to the Public Policy Institute of California poll, which found\u00a048% of likely voters haven\u2019t been following the race too closely.<\/p>\n \u201cTo me this race is still super wide open. I think (Mahan) is one of the candidates with the most room to grow because his campaign is relatively new and the advertising literally has just started,\u201d Mavilgio said. \u201cHe is one of three candidates now that has any kind of on-air presence. The money is certainly going to boost his numbers over the long term.\u201d<\/p>\n California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks\u00a0has been urging straggler blue candidates to drop out of the race for fear of Republicans taking the top two spots in the primary, after none of the candidates won the Democratic Party endorsement at the San Francisco convention last month. On Tuesday, the party announced\u00a0plans to launch a large-sample statewide polling project<\/a>\u00a0aimed at providing a consistent picture of voter preferences to nudge more candidates out of the race.<\/p>\n Maviglio doesn\u2019t think candidates should heed those calls.<\/p>\n \u201cI think the voters should decide \u2014 not flawed pollsters and party bosses,\u201d Maviglio said.<\/p>\n Contact Brandon Pho at\u00a0brandon@sanjosespotlight.com\u00a0or @brandonphooo on X.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1773907090_152_LNM-20250616-SJSPOTLIGHTLOGO-01.jpg\")
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A $4 million Kalshi betting pool puts San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan\u2019s odds at 12% in the governor\u2019s race as of March 16, 2026. (Screenshot via Kalshi.com)<\/p>\n