\nIt takes 28 days to ship gas from the U.S. to Asia, which is a problem because Asia\u2019s usual supply has gone offline in the bombing of Qatar, reports Fortune\u2019s Jordan Blum<\/a>.<\/p>\n
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The price of oil this morning.<\/p>\n
TradingEconomics.com<\/p>\n
ONE BIG THINGBig tech\u2019s tobacco moment<\/p>\n
A Los Angeles jury decided in a landmark case\u2014in which Mark Zuckerberg took the witness stand\u2014that a young woman known as \u201cKaley\u201d suffered $3 million in damages<\/a> from serious mental health problems caused by the \u201caddictive design\u201d of Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube. The closely watched bellwether case against the platforms\u2019 parents, Alphabet\u2019s \u200cGoogle and Meta, could set a precedent in thousands of similar lawsuits and force Silicon Valley to rethink the features that keep users endlessly scrolling.<\/p>\n The multimillion-dollar verdict will grow, Fortune\u2019s Kristin Stoller reports<\/a>, after the jury decides whether the companies acted with malice or fraud, and consider punitive damages. TikTok and Snap settled before the trial began.<\/p>\n What should be done? Policymakers are floating answers, from state-level warning labels and restrictions on personalized feeds for minors to outright bans on teen social media in some countries<\/a>. Platforms have rolled out an array of opt-in safeguards, teen modes, and screen-time nudges.\u00a0<\/p>\n IRAN\u2018Unbridgeable,\u2019 but Trump wants it over soon<\/p>\n President Trump told White House insiders he wants the war to end within his four-to-six week timeframe, according to the Wall Street Journal<\/a>. We are currently one-month into the war.\u00a0<\/p>\n Iran responded to the U.S.\u2019s proposed 15-point plan (which includes a demand for an end to Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions) with a five-point set of demands of its own, per the BBC<\/a>. They are:<\/p>\n A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations.” The U.S. and Iran are far apart. \u201cUnbridgeable\u201d is the word Macquarie\u2019s analysts have been using recently. Iran\u2019s last demand over the strait is especially unlikely to be acceptable to the White House. Iranian officials are publicly insisting that no negotiations are taking place.<\/p>\n Trump yesterday said the Iranians “are negotiating” but “they’re afraid to say it because they figure they’ll be killed by their own people\u2026They’re also afraid they’ll be killed by us.”\u00a0<\/p>\n What will they do when they get there?<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the Marines are en route to the Middle East and strikes from Israel, the U.S., and Iran continued across the region today. Analysts are gaming out the next steps: Putting boots on the ground would change the nature of the war radically, and risk extending it well beyond Trump\u2019s timeframe.<\/p>\n Kharg Island: One option would be for the Marines to take Kharg Island, the vast offshore terminal through which 90% of Iran\u2019s oil exports flow. The advantage would be that it\u2019s a discrete objective that chokes off the Iranian economy but does not actually require an invasion of the mainland itself. The disadvantage is that the Marines would have to hold the island under constant fire from Iran, the Financial Times says<\/a>.<\/p>\n Are the troops leverage or real? CNBC points out<\/a> that sending ground war troops puts pressure on Iran to talk, but doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that they\u2019ll be used.<\/p>\n NATO: A 77-year-old alliance, one executive order away from collapse<\/p>\n Europe continues to tie itself in knots over the war. Although NATO chief Mark Rutte supports the U.S.<\/a>, NATO itself has not sent the ships Trump has asked for. The leaders of Germany, Spain, and Italy have straightforwardly said they want no part in the conflict.\u00a0<\/p>\n It would be remarkably easy for the U.S. to ditch NATO, according to Christopher Hodge, chief economist for the U.S. at Natixis CIB. In a note to clients titled \u201cEnd of NATO?\u201d he wrote: \u201cTrump is now openly contemplating leaving NATO\u2014bringing up the same gripes he has expressed over the last decade. Now, Congress did pass a law requiring two-thirds Senate approval and congressional authorization to leave NATO, but practically speaking, it is Trump\u2019s call. He is the commander-in-chief and can direct troops around the globe, so even if legally still part of NATO, providing support to an ally in the event of an attack would be at his discretion. There is no clear way to dispute that in the Courts either. The Courts will view this as a political question, not a legal one, and would be inclined to not even hear the case.\u201d<\/p>\n CHART OF THE DAYSo far, so bad\u2014as far as the market is concerned Why isn\u2019t it worse? Deutsche Bank\u2019s Henry Allen asked in a recent research paper: \u201cWhy doesn\u2019t the scale of the losses [in stocks] compare to previous oil shocks?” He looked at the oil shocks of 1973, 1979, 1990, and 2022 and found that \u201con average, the S&P 500 falls into correction territory (-10%) within 3 months.\u201d Basically, the \u201cmarkets aren\u2019t pricing in a sustained shock\u2026[because] markets still expect a pullback in oil prices from current levels,” he said.<\/p>\n NUMBER OF THE DAY$8.2 billion<\/p>\n That was the size of the \u201coutflow\u201d from the S&P 500 last week as traders sold stocks in reaction to the war. It was the fourth-largest outflow since 2008, according to Jill Carey Hall of Bank of America.<\/p>\n MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/p>\n Washington and Silicon Valley have found their common enemy: China<\/a>, by Jacqueline Munis<\/p>\n Social Security insolvency: How a \u2018six figure cap\u2019 to flatten benefits for the ultra-wealthy could buy the program 7 critical years<\/a>, by Shawn Tully<\/p>\n The world\u2019s consumers are ready for robotaxis. James Peng of Pony AI wants to make sure they\u2019re riding in his<\/a>, by Nicholas Gordon<\/p>\n The White House snubs Elon Musk\u2019s offer to cover TSA salaries as airport miseries hit record levels<\/a>, By Eva Roytburg<\/p>\n Vail Resorts\u2019 CEO says it\u2019s time to think beyond the $1,000 ski pass that helped build the empire<\/a>, by Phil Wahba<\/p>\n Enter Melania Trump, escorted by humanoid robot: \u2018I\u2019m Figure 03, a humanoid built for the United States of America,\u2019<\/a> by the Associated Press<\/p>\n THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/p>\n Scott Bessent discussed ways to recast ties between Federal Reserve and Treasury in Bank of England\u2019s image<\/a> – FT<\/p>\n Prosecutor admits government lacks evidence of misconduct by Fed chair<\/a> – Washington Post<\/p>\n Trump Says the Energy Shock Will Be Short-Lived. CEOs Paint a Scarier Picture<\/a> – WSJ<\/p>\n Trump Team Examines What Oil as High as $200 a Barrel Would Mean<\/a> – Bloomberg<\/p>\n
\nA guarantee that the war will not restart.
\nThe payment of war damages and reparations.
\nAn end to the war via proxies and \u201cresistance\u201d groups.
\nAssertion of Iran’s right to control the Strait of Hormuz<\/p>\n
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