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Eight Democrats remain in the race to become California\u2019s next governor, raising the possibility they will spread the vote so thin that two Republicans could advance to the general election.<\/p>\n
Laure Andrillon\/Associated Press<\/p>\n
As the California Democratic Party faces the growing possibility of its candidates being locked out of the November election and a Republican becoming governor, some top Democrats are musing about their leaders orchestrating their version of a Joe Biden Reckoning Moment.\u00a0<\/p>\n
After Biden\u2019s disastrous debate against Donald Trump in June 2024, top donors and party leaders, including Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, publicly and privately questioned whether Biden should continue running, in part based on polling.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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Biden eventually heeded the call and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Now, some Democrats are calling for a similar intervention with lower-polling candidates in the state. Part of the reason that two Republicans are leading in the polls is that eight Democrats are splitting the vote.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The problem is that it\u2019s too late to have that conversation. All the lowest-polling candidates are already on the ballot. There is no top California Democrat with the juice and the desire to have those tough talks. Complicating matters is that it\u2019s politically unpalatable for a top white Democratic leader to ask the candidates of color, all of whom are polling\u00a0poorly<\/a>, to quit when so many party members are people of color. Besides, it\u2019s unlikely the candidates would heed<\/a> those requests anyway.\u00a0<\/p>\n San Francisco Chronicle Logo<\/p>\n Make us a Preferred Source to get more of our news when you search.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Add Preferred Source<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n The reason that leading party figures, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, Pelosi and others, haven\u2019t publicly backed a candidate or strong-armed anyone to leave is \u201cbecause nobody knows who can win,\u201d said former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, who is close to both. Voters haven\u2019t coalesced around any Democrat.<\/p>\n So now what? Two Republicans are leading the polls roughly a month before voters receive their ballots, and there\u2019s a 19% chance that two Republicans will advance from the June 2 primary to the general election, according to an\u00a0online too<\/a>l developed by political data expert Paul Mitchell that runs thousands of simulations of the race. The top two finishers in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, advance.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Here is what top state Democrats are considering doing, although none of their ideas are foolproof:\u00a0<\/p>\n Paging Gavin Newsom:\u00a0Newsom, with a 55% approval rating among likely voters, according to a March survey<\/a> by the Public Policy Institute of California, is the most likely person to tap some candidates on the shoulder and ask them to bow out. \u201cBut he\u2019d have to do it quietly. He wouldn\u2019t have to do it publicly,\u201d said former California Sen. Barbara Boxer.<\/p>\n But, as Brown pointed out, Newsom \u201cis not motivated. Because in a year when he says, \u2018Help me (run for president),\u2019 those people will say, \u2018Remember when you buried me?\u2019\u201d Newsom\u2019s likely route to the Democratic presidential nomination will be to appeal to the base of the party, which includes many Black and brown voters, Brown said. Muscling out candidates of color would hurt him in achieving his next goal.\u00a0<\/p>\n Some in the Democratic Party are hoping Gov. Gavin Newsom will step in and persuade\u00a0 poor polling candidates for governor to drop out.<\/p>\n Jessica Christian\/S.F. Chronicle<\/p>\n Pelosi to the rescue again:\u00a0Joe Cotchett, a San Francisco attorney and leading Democratic donor, said, \u201cWe need Nancy Pelosi to talk to people directly and tell them, \u2018Look, our democracy is at stake.\u2019\u201d But Pelosi\u2019s focus now is saving democracy on another front: She\u2019s traveling the country raising money for Democrats in the midterms. If Democrats can flip the House, they would be able to better check Trump\u2019s power. The situation isn\u2019t as dire in California. Even if a Republican became California\u2019s governor, the Democratic\u00a0supermajority in the Legislature would handcuff him.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Get the party chair some help:\u00a0Rusty Hicks, the California Democratic Party chairman, has unsuccessfully tried to winnow the field two different ways. Days before the deadline to file to be on the ballot, Hicks wrote an open letter telling candidates: \u201cIt is imperative that every candidate honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign.\u201d Only one candidate, former Assembly Member Ian Calderon, heeded Hicks\u2019 imperative. Days later, Hicks unveiled a plan to conduct extensive polling and publish the results as a way to publicly shame candidates out of the race. But after the first round of polling was released last week, candidates\u00a0dug in and vowed to continue<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n The chairman has no juice.<\/p>\n \u201cRusty WHO?\u201d Brown said Thursday, belittling his lack of power. Brown said his longtime friend and former state party chair, John Burton, never would have let eight Democrats gum up a primary field and risk the governor\u2019s mansion in a deep blue state. \u201cHe would have called them up if he heard they were even thinking about it,\u201d Brown said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Think of California over self:\u00a0David Campos, the vice chair of the state party, would like to see a top state Democrat step in. As a person of color, he said, he wants someone like himself to become governor. But that appears unlikely at this point, and so it may be time for the candidates and their supporters to think bigger-picture.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe worst thing that can happen for people of color is to elect a Republican governor,\u201d Campos said, \u201cEven if it\u2019s not the ideal candidate that you want to represent the Democratic Party, I will take that imperfect Democratic candidate if it means a Democrat over a Republican.\u201d<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Stay the course:\u00a0Nilza Serrano, chair of the Latino\/Chicano Caucus of the California Democratic Party, would like to see all the candidates of color remain in the race because the white candidates can learn something from their lived experiences. Eventually, she hopes the lower-polling candidates realize \u201cthat the state is bigger than yourself. The perfect example is President Biden. He did the honorable thing and said, \u2018OK, I have to go.\u2019\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Like Campos\u2019 idea, it\u2019s a nice sentiment, but unlikely to happen at this point. Candidates have invested too much in the race. Plus, there\u2019s a lot of ego involved. As Boxer said, \u201cIt\u2019s a very personal decision to run for office. You\u2019ve dreamt about it, you\u2019ve thought about it, you\u2019ve thought about it for a long time. So somebody just telling you not to run is not going to work.\u201d<\/p>\n Do your own poll, then reevaluate:\u00a0Boxer, who has endorsed former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, had another idea. She said that she would advise candidates who are \u201cpolling at under 5% or 4%\u201d to commission their own rigorous polling from a trusted pollster. \u201cSee where you are, and look at that (number) and believe that. At that point, for your own future, it would be very smart to endorse someone else who\u2019s closest to you, hold a press conference with that person and be a hero.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n