By Maya C. Miller for CalMatters<\/p>\n
After months of suspense, deliberation and a game-show-style process of elimination, Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley has finally chosen a district in which to seek reelection, though he won\u2019t continue on in the G.O.P.<\/p>\n
The two-term congressman from Roseville announced this week that\u00a0he will file paperwork to run<\/a>\u00a0for the Sacramento-area 6th Congressional District after California\u2019s Proposition 50 dramatically reshaped his current district into a solid pickup for Democrats.<\/p>\n If Kiley wants to keep his job, the former state assemblymember \u2014 who morphed from a more traditional center-right Republican to a\u00a0Trump-endorsed firebrand<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 will have to defy the odds. The new 6th is left-leaning \u2013 former Vice President Kamala Harris would have won the district by more than six percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, according to data from California Target Book, a nonpartisan and subscriber-based election guide.\u00a0<\/p>\n And while Kiley appears to have a clear path to the November ballot and a sizable fundraising advantage, his Democratic opponents will benefit greatly from the widespread voter discontent with the Trump administration and congressional Republicans, especially among independents.<\/p>\n \u201cHe will lose decisively, unless something very odd happens,\u201d said Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist in California who co-founded the anti-Trump Lincoln Project.<\/p>\n Challenges ahead<\/p>\n In a\u00a0social media post<\/a>\u00a0on Monday, Kiley said he decided to run in the 6th District even though his team had \u201cfavorable polling\u201d that showed he could win the safe Republican 5th Congressional District, currently held by long-time Rep. Tom McClintock.\u00a0<\/p>\n Although Kiley stressed that he chose the more Democratic-leaning district because it included his home turf of Placer County, he almost certainly considered the tricky optics and logistics of mounting a primary challenge against a long-time Republican congressional colleague like McClintock.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile this will be a more challenging race, I believe we can build a winning coalition for common sense,\u201d Kiley wrote on social media. \u201cThanks to all for your encouragement and patience.\u201d<\/p>\n Kiley\u2019s spokesperson, John Pirsos, declined CalMatters interview requests.\u00a0<\/p>\n Kiley\u2019s first hurdle will be prevailing in the nonpartisan primary in June. In that race, he faces a splintered Democratic field that includes Dr. Richard Pan, a pediatrician and one-time state Senate colleague of Kiley\u2019s; Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho; Lauren Babb-Tomlinson, who leads public affairs for Planned Parenthood; and Martha Guerrero, the mayor of West Sacramento.\u00a0<\/p>\n As the sole former Republican running against a sea of Democrats, Kiley stands a good chance of becoming one of the top two candidates and advancing to the general election on Nov. 3.<\/p>\n And unlike the crowded field of Democrats, who will race to one-up each other in spending with hopes of gaining an edge over the rest of the field, Kiley should emerge from June with a fuller war chest ready to unleash against his opponent in November. Kiley reported far more cash on hand than any of his Democratic opponents \u2014 $2 million at the end of last year, according to\u00a0the latest federal filings<\/a>.<\/p>\n Despite the clear path to a spot on the November ballot, Kiley still faces the same glaring challenge as Republicans across the country \u2014 the unpopularity of the Trump administration and a GOP-controlled Congress. A recent Reuters-Ipsos poll\u00a0pegged the president\u2019s approval rating at 39%<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s not a perfect Democratic seat,\u201d said Matt Rexroad, a Republican strategist and redistricting expert, speaking about the 6th District. \u201cThe problem is the overall atmosphere. Republicans are going to have a tough time in these midterms.\u201d<\/p>\n From 2020 election skeptic to GOP critic<\/p>\n In the last decade, Kiley has reinvented his political brand to fit the political mood of the moment. He transformed from someone who voiced support for then-Ohio governor John Kasich in the 2016 presidential election to a 2020 election skeptic who wouldn\u2019t say whether former President Joe Biden\u2019s victory was legitimate.\u00a0<\/p>\n Early in his Sacramento-based political career, Kiley pointedly distanced himself from national politics and President Donald Trump. He offered himself as a more traditional, moderate conservative who would unite California\u2019s center-right.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m trying to provide leadership for our party here in California, which will look different than leadership in Washington,\u201d Kiley\u00a0told CapRadio in 2020<\/a>. \u201cI try to stay in my lane and focus on state issues.\u201d<\/p>\n Kiley endeared himself to the California Republican base during the COVID-19 pandemic by constantly and vociferously antagonizing Gov. Gavin Newsom, going so far as to write a 234-page treatise on why he felt Newsom deserved to be recalled.\u00a0<\/p>\n He even made a\u00a0longshot bid for the governorship himself in 2021<\/a>\u00a0as California Republicans sought unsuccessfully to recall Newsom over what they said was his mishandling of the pandemic. According to election returns, Kiley emerged with less than 4% of support from voters who indicated a preferred replacement candidate.\u00a0<\/p>\n Softening his tone<\/p>\n Since the Prop. 50 redistricting, Kiley has noticeably moderated his tone and made direct, if largely symbolic, appeals to independent voters.\u00a0<\/p>\n Kiley introduced a bill in the House to ban mid-decade redistricting and called on Speaker Mike Johnson numerous times to bring it up for a vote. As one of the few Republicans who still came to Washington during the 43-day government shutdown last fall, he earned himself a\u00a0New York Times profile<\/a>, plus an\u00a0extended interview on the Times\u2019 flagship podcast, \u201cThe Daily,\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n