{"id":246724,"date":"2026-04-01T14:06:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T14:06:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/246724\/"},"modified":"2026-04-01T14:06:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T14:06:11","slug":"in-california-primary-an-electoral-disaster-is-looming-for-democrats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/246724\/","title":{"rendered":"In California primary, an electoral disaster is looming for Democrats"},"content":{"rendered":"

With US President Donald Trump\u2019s approval number deep under water, Democrats are hoping for a massive electoral shift in their favour come the midterms in November.<\/p>\n

Yet in heavily liberal California, the party could suffer a political nightmare of their own making and hand the governorship to a Republican.<\/p>\n

How is that possible in a state, where Democrats routinely carry huge majorities in a year in which some Republicans are fearing a national drubbing?<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what is happening: In California, there is a top-two \u201cjungle primary\u201d system in which all candidates are listed on the same ballot.<\/p>\n

The top two vote-getters move on to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation, meaning there is the potential for two candidates from the same party to face off in November.<\/p>\n

Conventional political wisdom would expect another Democrat to succeed outgoing term-limited governor Gavin Newsom, but this year could be stunningly different.<\/p>\n

\"Outgoing<\/p>\n

Outgoing California governor Gavin Newsom stands in front of a state flag. (AP Photo\/Noah Berger) – AP Photo <\/p>\n

Polls are consistently showing two Republican candidates in the lead, followed by 8 (!) Democratic candidates who seem to be splitting the Democratic vote as the June 2 primary fast approaches.<\/p>\n

Sensing a political catastrophe, the Democratic Party pleaded with low-polling candidates to stay out of the race and consolidate the field behind one or two viable candidates before April 15th.<\/p>\n

In an open letter in early March, California Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks called on the candidates to \u201chonestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign\u201d.<\/p>\n

He painted a bleak picture with serious consequences beyond California should no Democrat proceed to the general election for governor.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere could be the potential for depressed Democratic turnout in California in November,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe result would present a real risk to winning the congressional seats required and imperil Democrats\u2019 chances to retake the House, cut Donald Trump\u2019s term in half, and spare our Nation from the pain many have endured since January 2025. We simply can\u2019t let that happen,\u201d Hicks added.<\/p>\n

The situation seems to be mostly due to California\u2019s left-leaning electorate feeling uninspired by any single candidate in the crowded Democratic field after former Vice President Kamala Harris, a California native, decided not to seek the governorship.<\/p>\n

\"Former<\/p>\n

Former Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at an event promoting her latest book in Town Hall, New York, Sept. 24, 2025. (AP Photo\/Angelina Katsanis) – AP Photo <\/p>\n

\u201cKamala has the highest name recognition by far,\u201d Philip Bednarczyk told Euronews, a former adviser on the US House of Representatives\u2019 Foreign Affairs Committee who now heads the office of the German Marshall Fund in Warsaw.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut she declined probably because she is waiting for the big election in 2028,\u201d he added, referring to the presidential race to determine Trump\u2019s successor.<\/p>\n

Harris not running and Newsom not endorsing a Democratic candidate yet have thrown the race into the unknown.<\/p>\n

\u201cAn endorsement by Newsom would help a Democratic candidate to break through and change the situation completely,\u201d Bednarczyk said. \u201cBut here we are.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to the latest poll by UC Berkeley\/LA Times, the two Republican candidates, conservative British-born commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, were in the lead with 17% and 16% respectively – quite eye-popping in a state where Donald Trump is under water by 30 points (32% approval vs. 62% disapproval).<\/p>\n

Slightly behind were three Democrats, Congressman Eric Swalwell (13%), former Congresswoman Katie Porter (13%) and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer (10%).<\/p>\n

\"Televised<\/p>\n

Televised debate among California gubernatorial candidates in San Franscisco, Feb. 3, 2026 (AP Photo\/Laure Andrillon) – AP Photo <\/p>\n

The remaining Democratic candidates polled in the single digits, among them some prominent names like former US Health Secretary Xavier Becerra or former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villagairosa.<\/p>\n

The splintered support for the Democrats hoping to become the state\u2019s next governor has surfaced in other ways as well.<\/p>\n

Recently, the powerful California Federation of Labor voted to endorse four gubernatorial candidates – half the Democratic field!<\/p>\n

Yet, most observers believe that the odds that a Republican will become California\u2019s next governor appear slim, as Republicans only represent one fourth of registered voters in the Golden State.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019d say the possibility is low, but not insignificant,\u201d said Bednarczyk.<\/p>\n

No Republican has won a statewide election in the Golden State since 2006, the year Hollywood movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected to a second term as governor.<\/p>\n

\"Governor<\/p>\n

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger shakes hands with supporters as he celebrates at his re-election victory party in Beverly Hills, Nov. 7, 2006 (AP Photo\/Kevork Djansezian) – AP Photo <\/p>\n

Schwarzenegger, who was first elected in 2003 and left office in 2011, was also the last Republican in that office so far.<\/p>\n

Today, it\u2019s hard to believe that between 1967 and 2011, there were only twelve years in which there was not a Republican governor.<\/p>\n

And only the elderly remember that a certain Ronald Reagan used his governorship (1967-75) as a stepping-stone for his successful presidential campaigns in the 1980s.<\/p>\n

In short, for much of the last century, California Republicans remained highly competitive.<\/p>\n

But then, a mix of demographic, economic and political changes helped accelerate California\u2019s transition from a swing state into a solidly Democratic stronghold while the national Republican Party became much more conservative.<\/p>\n

The most crucial turning point came in the 1990s when then-Republican governor Pete Wilson backed \u201cProposition 187\u201d, which sought to deny public services to undocumented immigrants.<\/p>\n

\"Protesters<\/p>\n

Protesters at Los Angeles City Hall, Nov. 7, 1994, demonstrating against Proposition 187. (AP Photo\/Nick Ut) – AP Photo <\/p>\n

The measure passed, but triggered a long-term backlash. It accelerated Latino naturalization and voter registration and cemented a perception of Republicans as anti-Latino and anti-immigrant.<\/p>\n

To this day, this steadily expanded the Democratic base – and indeed, California has become a majority-minority state where large Latino, Asian American and other immigrant populations together outnumber whites.<\/p>\n

The fact that the state became structurally Democratic simultaneously set in motion a downward spiral for Republicans: losing led to more losing.<\/p>\n

It meant less fundraising and visibility, which meant fewer Republicans winning, which led to a weaker bench of candidates \u2013 which brings us to the 2026 gubernatorial election and its central paradox.<\/p>\n

In order to get the nomination, both Republicans candidates, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, have appealed to the MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) faithful and tried to curry favour with President Trump, playing to an increasingly ideological Republican base.<\/p>\n

\"Republican<\/p>\n

Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton campaigning in Huntington Beach, April 22, 2025. (Paul Bersebach\/The Orange County Register via AP) – AP Photo <\/p>\n

Especially Hilton (\u201cMake California Golden Again\u201d), once a top aide to conservative ex-Prime Minister David Cameron, keeps stressing his renouncing British citizenship and becoming American \u2013 a Trumpian American.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t want this state that I love to become the country I left,\u201d Hilton said at a recent campaign event, catering to the anti-Europe sentiment among pro-Trump hardliners.<\/p>\n

Sheriff Bianco recently made headlines by seizing more than 650,000 ballots cast in the 2025 election to determine, he said, whether they were fraudulently counted \u2013 a claim that local election officials have refuted but won praise among MAGA election deniers.<\/p>\n

\"Riverside<\/p>\n

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco speaks at a news conference in Lake Elsinore, Calif., Feb. 7, 2023. (Watchara Phomicinda\/The Orange County Register via AP, File) – AP Photo <\/p>\n

The unusual investigation drew a sharp rebuke from California\u2019s attorney general, a Democrat, who said in a statement that it is \u201cunprecedented in both scope and scale\u201d and appears \u201cnot to be based on facts or evidence.\u201d<\/p>\n

After mounting legal challenges, on Tuesday Bianco retracted and paused the election probe.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s amazing that Hilton and Bianco combined are polling much lower than Donald Trump’s score in 2024 and are still leading the field of gubernatorial candidates,\u201d said Bednarczyk.<\/p>\n

Until now, the California primary did not get much national attention. But that might change, if the current polling trend continues.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With US President Donald Trump\u2019s approval number deep under water, Democrats are hoping for a massive electoral shift…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":246725,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[7,5402,2926,9,8,28687,38967,1751,536,457,9394,40659,1748,17382],"class_list":{"0":"post-246724","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-california","8":"tag-california","9":"tag-california-democratic-party","10":"tag-california-governor","11":"tag-california-headlines","12":"tag-california-news","13":"tag-chad-bianco","14":"tag-democratic-candidates","15":"tag-democrats","16":"tag-donald-trump","17":"tag-gavin-newsom","18":"tag-kamala-harris","19":"tag-republican-candidates","20":"tag-republicans","21":"tag-steve-hilton"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246724","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=246724"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246724\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/246725"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=246724"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=246724"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=246724"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}