Demographers were justifiably worried about decreasing immigration being a key factor in the recent population decline in San Diego and California.<\/p>\n
Immigration has been essential in keeping the economy moving and the population stable for a long time. The recently drop served as a potential warning sign.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd if that flow of immigrants is cut off permanently, San Diego\u2019s in big trouble,\u201d said Dowell Myers, professor of urban planning and demography at USC, according<\/a> to Lori Weisberg and Alexandra Mendoza of The San Diego Union-Tribune.<\/p>\n The decline in immigration has been recorded across the nation, attributed in large part to President Donald Trump\u2019s efforts to deport millions of undocumented people, which has broadly discouraged immigration overall.<\/p>\n Analysts also pointed to another familiar factor that separates California from many other states: the cost of living, particularly when it comes to housing.<\/p>\n \u201cThere are tremendous problems with affordability in the state,\u201d said Evan White, executive director of the California Policy Lab and co-author of a recently released study \u201cPriced Out: Relocation Amidst California\u2019s Affordability Crisis.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n The report doesn\u2019t just delve into the economics that drive people from California, but how they fare afterward.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat we show for the first time is that people who leave are, in fact, improving their financial positions, and are able to own homes in greater numbers after the move,\u201d White said.<\/p>\n People may have sensed that, but the study puts data on the bones.<\/p>\n San Diego County\u2019s population in 2025 fell by nearly 5,300, hardly noticeable among the 3.28 million residents. The state experienced a net loss of less than 1 percent of its 39 million inhabitants. So it doesn\u2019t seem like a big deal, at least yet.<\/p>\n But the study says if this is the \u201cnew normal,\u201d the implications \u201ccould be severe.\u201d A shrinking population could mean a smaller tax base to build roads, fight fires and ensure public safety, the report says.<\/p>\n After the 2020 census reported a population decline, California for the first time in its history lost a seat in Congress, going from 53 to 52 \u2014 leading to suggestions its political clout is waning.<\/p>\n One surprising conclusion in the California Policy Lab report is that people leaving the state these days increasingly come from higher-income neighborhoods, while the share of those from lower-income neighborhoods has declined. White said moving to another state can be costly and that sometimes the decision is a \u201cmove of last resort\u201d based on economic anxiety.<\/p>\n Some other highlights from the report:<\/p>\n \u2014 Among those who moved out-of-state, their new monthly housing costs averaged $1,706 \u2014 about $670 less than the average $2,376 in their former California neighborhoods.<\/p>\n \u2014Those who moved into California saw average monthly housing expenses jump to $2,418, up 38 percent from the average housing costs where they lived before.<\/p>\n \u2014 After seven years in their new states, former Californians were 48 percent more likely to own a home.<\/p>\n \u2014 While incomes in their out-of-state neighborhoods were about 8 percent lower on average, the report says, the \u201cdifference is far outweighed by the lower costs of living.\u201d At least some of the California expatriates were able to maintain their California incomes as they work remotely.<\/p>\n \u2014 Texas is the most popular relocation destination for exiting Californians in raw numbers, followed by Arizona, Washington and Nevada. On a per capita basis, Nevada is the leader.<\/p>\n White also suggested Proposition 13, the 1978 measure that limited property tax increases, may have played a role in the population changes. Under the law, homes are revalued when they are being sold, often raising property taxes substantially \u2014 effectively penalizing new homebuyers.<\/p>\n \u201cNew homeowners are paying really high property taxes,\u201d White said, \u201cwhereas folks who have owned their home for 20 or 30 years are paying very low property taxes. With two neighbors, the person who\u2019s lived in their home for a short time might be paying 10 or sometimes 20 times what their neighbor is paying.<\/p>\n \u201cYou\u2019ve got a lot of people in the state who are living paycheck to paycheck or really struggling to meet the cost of living. That is a much bigger problem, and one that California should attend to.\u201d<\/p>\n Experts basically agreed that continued population decline could have negative impacts, but cautioned against apocalyptic predictions.<\/p>\n \u201cSan Diego County is not Detroit in the 1970s. It\u2019s not losing population because its economy is collapsing,\u201d Eric McGhee, senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, told the Union-Tribune.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s declining because immigration has been cut off as a policy matter and also a high cost of living that makes it hard for people to move here. But San Diego and California still have a dynamic economy that\u2019s been growing a lot in recent years.\u201d<\/p>\n White noted California is still a global center for business and technology, entertainment and agriculture. And it has some of the world\u2019s greatest national parks and wilderness areas. He also downplayed concerns about wealthy people leaving.<\/p>\n \u201cCalifornia continues to mint more millionaires every day,\u201d he said. \u201cThe business environment is such that for every millionaire we lose, we\u2019re minting new ones \u2014 there\u2019s pretty good evidence of that. The California Dream is still very much alive.\u201d<\/p>\n So far, the drop in population doesn\u2019t seem to have revved up the California doom loop prognostications to the degree it did following the 2020 census, the COVID pandemic and during other trying times for the Golden State. Much of that has come from East Coast and conservative media.<\/p>\n H.D. Palmer, who has experienced economic ups and downs as spokesman for the state Department of Finance, has worked in Sacramento under four governors \u2014 two Republicans and two Democrats. In 2021, he told<\/a> Los Angeles Times columnist Mark Z. Barabak that the swings and accompanying death-knell predictions are common, like king tides.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019re expected, they\u2019re predictable, and they\u2019re dramatic,\u201d Palmer said. \u201cThey also will eventually ebb and recede.\u201d<\/p>\n Notable population changes, up or down, seem to be a particular barometer triggering criticism.<\/p>\n In the early 1990s, it was the state\u2019s rapid growth and the resulting congestion and other problems that led Time magazine to declare on its cover<\/a>: \u201cCalifornia \u2014The endangered dream.\u201d<\/p>\n What they said<\/p>\n