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\n Steve Hilton, Trump\u2019s choice to lose the general election badly.
\n Photo: Kayla Bartkowski\/Los Angeles Times\/Getty Images\n <\/p>\n
An endorsement from Donald Trump<\/a> is usually an enormous gift to any Republican candidate. But the 47th president\u2019s \u201cCOMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT\u201d<\/a> of California gubernatorial aspirant Steve Hilton<\/a> on Truth Social late Sunday night was a mixed blessing. It will almost certainly help consolidate the GOP vote behind the former British Tory political operative and Fox News gabber and thus improve his chances of winning one of two spots in the general election that will be awarded by California voters in the June 3 nonpartisan top-two primary. But that same consolidation of voters will very likely demolish the only realistic chance for Hilton to become governor. Trump\u2019s endorsement has probably ruined the possibility of a Republican \u201clockout\u201d<\/a> in which both Hilton and his GOP rival, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco<\/a>, are the two candidates in the November general election.<\/p>\n That lockout scenario has haunted Democrats throughout the low-intensity contest to choose a successor to term-limited incumbent Gavin Newsom<\/a>. A large Democratic field with no clear front-runner has led to polls<\/a> showing Hilton and Bianco with decent odds of finishing first and second with Democrats like Eric Swalwell<\/a>, Katie Porter<\/a>, and Tom Steyer<\/a> trailing them by a small but crucial shortfall in voters. For months now Democratic party leaders have called on lower-performing candidates like state attorney general Xavier Becerra<\/a>, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa<\/a>, and former state comptroller Betty Yee to drop out and ensure a better consolidation of the Democratic vote, but to no avail. For one thing, it has appeared unseemly<\/a> that the highly diverse governing party in this highly diverse state would be forced to choose among an all-white candidate roster (Swalwell, Porter, Steyer, and perhaps also heavily funded San Jose mayor Matt Mahan<\/a>). So the field has remained scattered. But that is now much less likely to produce a one-two finish for Republicans.<\/p>\n Top-two strategy aside, Trump\u2019s preference for Hilton wasn\u2019t that surprising, given his penchant for raiding the ranks of former Fox News personalities for high positions in his own administration. In addition, Hilton already had a fundraising advantage over Bianco, whose recent seizure of 2025 special-election ballots<\/a> in his county over specious fraud allegations was widely interpreted as a stunt to attract positive attention from the White House. Now with Trump\u2019s imprimatur, Hilton\u2019s vote share should climb up into the high teens or the 20s (he\u2019s now at 14.7 percent in the RealClearPolitics polling averages<\/a>), leaving Bianco, and the possibility of a GOP lockout, in the dust. But barring something truly unprecedented, Hilton will almost certainly be trounced in a general election contest against any of the Democrats, given the state\u2019s heavily pro-Democratic political complexion (no Republican has won a statewide contest of any sort since 2010), intensified by an expected pro-Democratic midterm wave.<\/p>\n For Democrats, Trump\u2019s gambit will make life much easier between now and the June 3 primary. They won\u2019t have to divert money to boost one of the Republicans to consolidate the GOP vote and end the lockout threat, as some had been quietly discussing<\/a>, because Trump\u2019s endorsement has taken care of that chore for them. Now it\u2019s really just a first-past-the-post contest among the leading Democratic candidates for one of the two general-election spots \u2014 and for the governorship, given the heavy odds favoring any Democrat in November. It\u2019s still possible enough votes will coalesce around two Democrats that Hilton could find himself locked out of the general election. But it\u2019s more likely he\u2019s got a ticket to November and a rousing defeat.<\/p>\n