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Some experts believe a strong incoming El Ni\u00f1o would bring a larger-than-usual amount of precipitation to California and the Southwest.<\/p>\n
Giselle Garza Lerma\/S.F. Chronicle<\/p>\n
A rare cluster of three tropical cyclones <\/a>will straddle both sides of the equator in the western Pacific this week, generating what one scientist called potentially the strongest westerly wind burst over the equatorial Pacific in the recent century. The burst is pushing warm water eastward at a critical moment, accelerating what Paul Roundy, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany, said has \u201creal potential for the strongest El Ni\u00f1o event in 140 years.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n The just-released April seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows virtually all of its models expect the world to reach El Ni\u00f1o conditions by mid-June. Roughly half project sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2.5 degrees Celsius above average by October.<\/p>\n A strong El Ni\u00f1o would likely significantly reshape global weather patterns, potentially pushing global temperatures to record levels in 2027.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The tropical cyclones are just the latest evidence of an emerging, potentially record El Ni\u00f1o. Their combined circulation is fueling the westerly wind burst now pushing warm water eastward across the Pacific. That burst \u201cis located west of the warmest water presently in the Pacific Ocean, so it is ideally placed to drive that warm water eastward to form a strong El Ni\u00f1o event,\u201d Roundy said. He estimated the setup could cause El Ni\u00f1o to arrive quickly, within one to two months.<\/p>\n This is the latest in a\u00a0series of powerful westerly wind bursts<\/a> that have swept the equatorial Pacific since January, bringing an end to a La Ni\u00f1a pattern and spreading unusually warm water across the Pacific, both at the surface and deep below it. Each successive burst has pushed that warm water further east, and this one, fueled by the rare triple cyclone pattern, may be the strongest yet.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat\u2019s different this year is the level of agreement across multiple models, not just one,\u201d said Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, a climate scientist at Columbia University\u2019s International Research Institute for Climate and Society. Forecasters from Australia and NASA, in addition to Europe, \u201care all signaling a strong El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d he noted. The next official forecast from his research institute, due April 19, is expected to trend stronger than last month\u2019s outlook<\/a>, Ehsan said.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology seasonal forecast, run April 4, shows El Ni\u00f1o conditions reaching 100 percent probability by June and intensifying through at least September, with anomalies hitting super El Ni\u00f1o territory by August.<\/p>\n BOM<\/p>\n The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is scheduled to release its updated projections on El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o on Thursday.<\/p>\n San Francisco Chronicle Logo<\/p>\n Make us a Preferred Source to get more of our news when you search.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n