SACRAMENTO\u00a0\u2014\u00a0There has never been a California governor\u2019s race like this one. And that was even before the leading Democrat was shoved aside by shocking accusations of sexual assault.<\/p>\n
For months, the contest has been uninspiring, unexciting and unwatchable. It really shouldn\u2019t have been called a \u201crace.\u201d It was more like a slow trot. No candidate has drawn even 20% of voters\u2019 support in independent polling. Half the 10 main candidates have been stuck in single digits.<\/p>\n
And in less than a month, voters will start casting mail-in ballots.<\/p>\n
But suddenly eyes and ears have opened.<\/p>\n
Democratic frontrunner Eric Swalwell, a congressman from the East San Francisco Bay, was accused by a former young female staffer of twice sexually assaulting her<\/a> when she was too intoxicated to consent.<\/p>\n The San Francisco Chronicle reported<\/a> that Friday and CNN soon followed<\/a> with a similar report, adding accusations of sexual misconduct from three other women.<\/p>\n \u201cI was pushing him off of me saying no,\u201d the anonymous former staffer told CNN. \u201cHe didn\u2019t stop.\u201d<\/p>\n Swalwell, who is married and has three children, strongly denied the accusations.<\/p>\n The incidents \u201cnever happened,\u201d he said<\/a>. \u201cI will fight them with everything I have\u2026.<\/p>\n \u201cI have certainly made mistakes in judgment in my past, but these mistakes are between me and my wife. And to her I apologize deeply for putting her in this position.\u201d<\/p>\n Sorry, congressman, but if someone is running for governor of the nation\u2019s largest state, the mistakes aren\u2019t just between him and his wife.<\/p>\n Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco told Swalwell, in essence, that it\u2019s his right to fight the accusations, but he should do it on his own time, not the Democratic Party\u2019s. She was among the first of party leaders to call on him to abandon the race.<\/p>\n Bye, bye Eric. Might as well depart the House, too.<\/p>\n A leading candidate for California governor has never crumbled so fast. It was like a dam bursting.<\/p>\n Powerful interests and major politicians had been coalescing behind the 45-year-old congressman because he charmed them or they were loyal colleagues or \u2014 most important \u2014 he seemed like a potential winner.<\/p>\n Political players, including campaign donors, seek to invest their capital in anticipated victors. Their expected return is access and favors. And Swalwell had been racking up lots of endorsements.<\/p>\n But almost immediately after the sex scandal broke, supporters began fleeing the reeking corpse.<\/a> <\/p>\n Marital infidelity is one thing, but alleged sexual assault \u2014 rape \u2014 cannot be tolerated, especially by a party dominated by female voters.<\/p>\n Labor unions, other interests and influential politicians began backing off their endorsements. Many urged Swalwell to fold his campaign. And with his support collapsing, he really was left ultimately with no other choice.<\/p>\n So, now the most pertinent question is which candidate will replace Swalwell as the Democrat with the best chance of surviving the June 2 top-two primary and winning a spot on the November ballot.<\/p>\n If it\u2019s a Democrat against a Republican in November\u2013the most likely matchup\u2013the Democrat is a virtual cinch to succeed the termed out Gov. Gavin Newsom.<\/a> No Republican has won a statewide race in California in 20 years.<\/p>\n State Democratic Chairman Rusty Hicks \u2014 as part of his effort to pressure lagging candidates to exit the race and make more room for faster runners \u2014 released a nonpartisan, party-paid poll last week. It was conducted before Swalwell\u2019s collapse.<\/p>\n It showed two Republicans tied for the lead with 14% each: Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton.<\/p>\n Among Democrats, Swalwell led with 12%, slightly ahead of billionaire hedge fund founder Tom Steyer at 11%. Former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter had 7%. Then came former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jos\u00e9 Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, each with 4%.<\/p>\n Former state controller Betty Yee and state schools chief Tony Thurmond barely registered at 1% each.<\/p>\n For weeks, it has been deemed conceivable that both Republican candidates would finish ahead of all Democrats in the June 2 primary. Democratic voters would splinter their support among the party\u2019s crowded field. That would lock out Democrats from the November ballot and guarantee the election of a Republican.<\/p>\n But President Trump seemed to botch that for the GOP last week by endorsing Hilton. Trump presumably will help the former British politico draw votes from Bianco and indirectly assist a Democrat in finishing second.<\/p>\n There\u2019s a new twist, however. Where will Swalwell\u2019s votes go? If enough go to the Democratic laggers rather than the party frontrunners, both Republicans could still wind up one-two.<\/p>\n No gubernatorial contest in modern times has been this wide open.<\/p>\n These candidates\u2019 failure to make waves isn\u2019t all their fault. Some were slow diving into the water. But even those who tried to make a splash were inundated by Trump.<\/p>\n Practically all the public\u2019s attention has been on the president and his oddball or vengeful or unprincipled actions.<\/p>\n Now the Democratic race is more wide open than ever.<\/p>\n Steyer \u2014 a liberal climate fighter \u2014 has run an energetic campaign, spending more than $100 million of his own money on TV ads. But will Californians elect a mega-rich governor? They never have.<\/p>\n Porter has been running better in polls than the latest Democratic survey showed. She\u2019s straight forward on all the issues, but a bit too liberal and feisty for some establishment Democrats. Swalwell\u2019s fall is her opportunity to rise.<\/p>\n Becerra \u2014 a former state attorney general and congressman \u2014 has an impressive resume, but was too slow out of the starting gate. This is his chance to sprint, if he can.<\/p>\n No candidate is more qualified to be governor than centrist Villaraigosa, a former state Assembly speaker. But voters apparently are looking for someone younger. He\u2019s 73.<\/p>\n Mayhan is a moderate who started too late and has fallen far short of expectations. He now has a second chance.<\/p>\n It soon will all be in the hands of voters, whether they\u2019re interested or not.<\/p>\n You’re reading the L.A. Times Politics newsletter <\/p>\n George Skelton and Michael Wilner cover the insights, legislation, players and politics you need to know. In your inbox Monday and Thursday mornings. <\/p>\n By continuing, you agree to our Terms of Service<\/a>, which include arbitration and a class action waiver. You agree that we and our third-party vendors may collect and use your information, including through cookies, pixels and similar technologies, for the purposes set forth in our Privacy Policy<\/a> such as personalizing your experience and ads. <\/p>\n What else you should be reading<\/p>\n The must-read: Eric Swalwell\u2019s bid for California governor is over. Let the political scrambling begin <\/a> Until next week,
Knives out: GOP\u2019s best shot at California governor\u2019s office in decades mired in angry internal debate<\/a>
The L.A. Times Special: Newsom reluctant to endorse a successor, break gridlock in governor\u2019s race<\/a> <\/p>\n
George Skelton<\/p>\n