{"id":268902,"date":"2026-04-15T10:48:06","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T10:48:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/268902\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T10:48:06","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T10:48:06","slug":"iran-war-chilled-l-a-housing-market-will-ceasefire-bring-more-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/268902\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran war chilled L.A. housing market. Will ceasefire bring more sales?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Katie Davis has whiplash.<\/p>\n<p>A longtime renter, she\u2019s in the market for her first ever home, but she needs mortgage rates to drop in order to afford the monthly payments. Anything under 6% would be feasible.<\/p>\n<p>For the last year, she\u2019s been <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">tracking them<\/a> like a hawk. She watched them fall from 7% last spring to 6.5% last fall until they finally dipped below 6% in February.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI thought my time had finally come,\u201d Davis said.<\/p>\n<p>Days later, a series of airstrikes kicked off the Iran war, spiking mortgage rates. Then, in April, the U.S. struck a ceasefire deal, bringing rates back down again. During that stretch, Davis has waffled between hopeless and hopeful on a weekly basis.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI just want a little starter house in El Sereno, but somehow it feels contingent on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or not,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>A small swing in mortgage rates might not feel like much, but for many first-time homebuyers, the margins of affordability are razor-thin in Southern California\u2019s <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/business\/story\/2026-02-10\/la-long-beach-among-least-affordable-cities-for-homebuyers\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">expensive market<\/a>, and $200 more for a monthly payment is the difference between keeping up with a loan or being crushed by it.<\/p>\n<p>L.A.\u2019s housing market was already cold; according to Zillow, only 3,072 homes traded hands in L.A. County in January, the lowest monthly total in three years. The Iran war all but froze it, sending mortgage rates back up to 6.46% and pulling would-be buyers out of the market.<\/p>\n<p>In February, the median L.A. home for sale spent 80 days on the market \u2014 the longest median in the last five years, <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/11203\/CA\/Los-Angeles\/housing-market#demand\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">according to Redfin<\/a>. In addition, 17.6% of home listings had price cuts, up 1.4 percentage points year over year.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s a growing chasm between the number of sellers and buyers in the market in L.A., mirroring a national trend. According to a <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/buyers-vs-sellers-february-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">March Redfin report<\/a>, there are 630,000 more sellers than buyers in the active U.S. market \u2014 the largest gap on record dating back to 2013.<\/p>\n<p>Bret Parsons, a <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/strongrealtor.com\/agents\/bret-parsons\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">real estate agent<\/a> with the Craig Strong Group at Compass, said the war is having a psychological effect on buyers.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBuyers are slower to pull the lever,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s human nature. When a big event happens, buyers get nervous.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He said the ceasefire could calm their collective nerves if it holds.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019ll have a momentary effect, no doubt about it. Humans are very reactionary,\u201d Parsons said.<\/p>\n<p>He said mortgage rates are only one piece of the puzzle in thawing L.A.\u2019s market, citing <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/business\/story\/2026-03-18\/home-insurance-premiums-set-to-rise-again-as-extreme-weather-drives-costs-up\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">skyrocketing insurance rates<\/a> and <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/entertainment-arts\/business\/story\/2025-12-10\/netflix-paramount-warner-bros-deal-layoffs-what-to-know\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Hollywood\u2019s bleak job market<\/a> as other factors keeping demand down.<\/p>\n<p>But <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/02\/26\/business\/mortgage-rates-30-year.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">sub-6% rates<\/a> would be the quickest way to bring cautious buyers back into the market, so sellers are hoping the ceasefire will stabilize rates. Until then, for buyers, the ever-shifting rates mean that even with more leverage, it still doesn\u2019t feel like a buyer\u2019s market.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFebruary was brutal because we thought we were in a buyer\u2019s market. Lots of properties had been sitting since the fall,\u201d said Ashley Moorhead, a lawyer who\u2019d been shopping for homes since December. \u201cBut rates dipped just before the war, and everyone seemed to come out all at once to bid for homes that had been on the market for over 20 days.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Moorhead said for every house she bid on, there were at least four other offers. In one case, she was outbid for a home in Pasadena by $225,000.<\/p>\n<p>Her ideal budget was $1.25 million. She ended up spending $1.39 million.<\/p>\n<p>Depending on how you look at it, Moorhead got lucky. She locked in a 5.99% mortgage rate right before the war started. Had she waited a month, the rate would\u2019ve been 6.5%. But had the war never started in the first place, she said, it could\u2019ve been 5.75% or lower.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI am not optimistic rates will go down,\u201d Moorhead said. \u201cI think time in the market beats timing the market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Real estate agent Matthew Hoult said the spring market has been slow for a handful of reasons. For buyers, affordability is king, and many are second-guessing what they can afford if rates spike. For sellers, many have the \u201cgolden handcuffs\u201d of low interest rates locked in during the pandemic, so they\u2019re not incentivized to move.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not as simple as supply and demand because there\u2019s plenty of pent-up demand,\u201d Hoult said. \u201cLots of people want to buy a house, especially Millennials and Gen Z, but there\u2019s so much uncertainty over mortgage rates and cost of living that they\u2019re being picky.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He had two clients lock in a 6.1% mortgage rate in December. If they waited until the spring, they would\u2019ve been paying $200 more per month on a million-dollar loan.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe frustrating part is nobody really knows when this settles. Oil could stabilize, tensions could ease, but there\u2019s no crystal ball,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019ve seen people wait for better rates and end up paying more six months later because prices kept climbing while they sat on the sidelines.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He said for some, the suspended state of the market could be an opportunity, pointing to a famous Warren Buffett quote: \u201cBe fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNow\u2019s the time to find deals. Use the war for leverage,\u201d Hoult said, urging buyers to ask for concessions from sellers tired of waiting for more buyers to emerge. \u201cAsk them to cover fees, buy down the rate or for a lower sale price.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Real estate agent Daniel Milstein said the market is already picking back up, but sales numbers don\u2019t show it yet.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a clear disconnect between what people are reading in public data and what is actually happening on the ground,\u201d he said. \u201cMost widely cited housing metrics lag reality by 30 to 60 days, meaning the narrative many are reacting to today is already outdated.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He cites as evidence new escrows, which don\u2019t record as sales until they close weeks or months later. According to his colleague at an escrow company, Milstein said, new escrows have increased up to 50% in markets across L.A. County in the last few weeks compared with the month prior.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBecause most of the current activity exists in escrow and has not yet closed, it\u2019s not reflected in public records. In the next two to four weeks, we expect to see a noticeable influx of recording transactions,\u201d he said. \u201cIn other words, the market is already moving \u2014 people just haven\u2019t seen it yet.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Katie Davis has whiplash. A longtime renter, she\u2019s in the market for her first ever home, but she&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":268903,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[117151,59769,3785,217,1073,93309,8161,48,52,51,7036,47,50,49,5990,3906,117150,49454,592,7790,75990],"class_list":{"0":"post-268902","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-los-angeles","8":"tag-ashley-moorhead","9":"tag-buyer","10":"tag-ceasefire","11":"tag-day","12":"tag-home","13":"tag-iran-war","14":"tag-l-a-county","15":"tag-la","16":"tag-la-headlines","17":"tag-la-news","18":"tag-last-year","19":"tag-los-angeles","20":"tag-los-angeles-headlines","21":"tag-los-angeles-news","22":"tag-market","23":"tag-month","24":"tag-more-sale","25":"tag-mortgage-rate","26":"tag-people","27":"tag-real-estate-agent","28":"tag-seller"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=268902"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268902\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/268903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=268902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=268902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=268902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}