{"id":272185,"date":"2026-04-17T06:49:26","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T06:49:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/272185\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T06:49:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T06:49:26","slug":"california-governor-poll-shows-tight-race-after-swalwell-exit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/272185\/","title":{"rendered":"California governor poll shows tight race after Swalwell exit"},"content":{"rendered":"

California voters still primarily undecided in upcoming gubernatorial election.<\/p>\n

SACRAMENTO, Calif. \u2014 A new poll offers an early look at California\u2019s governor\u2019s race following Congressman Eric Swalwell\u2019s exit, showing a crowded field and a large share of undecided voters.<\/p>\n

An Emerson College and Inside California Politics poll<\/a> conducted this week finds Republican Steve Hilton leading at 17%, with Chad Bianco and Tom Steyer tied at 14%.<\/p>\n


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Xavier Becerra saw the biggest increase, rising from 3% in March to 10%, where he is now tied with Katie Porter. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan is at 5%.<\/p>\n

Despite the movement, nearly a quarter of the 1,000 likely voters surveyed remain undecided, leaving the race wide open ahead of the June primary.<\/p>\n

With Swalwell out, strategists say Democratic candidates may have an opportunity to gain ground, though the impact of his departure remains uncertain.<\/p>\n

\u201cLooking back at the \u201898 race, 3% is a few 100,000 votes. So, a few 100,000 votes can make a big difference one way or another,\u201d said Andrew Acosta, a Democratic strategist.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Acosta said it may be too early to determine who benefits most from Swalwell leaving the race, noting that every vote will be critical in June.<\/p>\n

Republican consultant Tab Berg said Becerra\u2019s recent surge may not last, but pointed to another candidate gaining traction.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe one that I\u2019m paying the most attention to now is San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who I think has shown steady growth,\u201d Berg said.<\/p>\n

Swalwell\u2019s name will still appear on the June primary ballot, and Acosta said he’s skeptical of former Swalwell supporters quickly endorsing other candidates.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe probably will get some amount of vote, not a ton, but it\u2019s still one of those things that as voters now are figuring out that it\u2019s not Swalwell, then they have to figure out, OK, then who\u2019s next,\u201d Acosta said.<\/p>\n

Under California\u2019s primary system, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the November election.<\/p>\n

Berg said a matchup between two Republicans is unlikely.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a less than 10% chance of a Republican versus a Republican. There\u2019s about a 25% chance of a Democrat versus a Democrat. But it\u2019s a 65 to 70% chance that it\u2019s going to be a Republican versus a Democrat,\u201d Berg said.<\/p>\n

The poll also highlights the issues driving voters, with the economy ranked as the top concern at 41%, followed by housing affordability at 20%.<\/p>\n

Candidates in the race continue to emphasize those issues as central to their campaigns.<\/p>\n

WATCH MORE ON ABC10 | New poll shows Xavier Becerra gains ground in California governor\u2019s race<\/a><\/p>\n

ABC10: Watch, Download, Read<\/p>\n


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