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From left, Sullivan Grosz of Pearson Realty, Jason Farris of FresYes Realty, Jeff Kim of Colliers and Corrine Demetreos of D.R. Horton discuss residential real estate and homebuilding trends at the Fresno County EDC’s annual Real Estate Forecast at the DoubleTree Inn in downtown Fresno on Thursday. Photo by Gabriel Dillard<\/p>\n
Housing affordability, limited developable land and elevated mortgage rates are some of the trends shaping Fresno\u2019s residential real estate outlook for 2026 and beyond.<\/p>\n
But one truth remains, say local industry leaders: Fresno continues to be one of California\u2019s last affordable markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n
During a panel discussion at the Fresno County Economic Development Corp.\u2019s 2026 Real Estate Forecast, panelists discussed a range of topics including constrained availability of developed lots, buyers waiting for rates or prices to decline and pressure from high mortgage rates.<\/p>\n
Where to build?<\/p>\n
For builders, land supply remains a major challenge. Corine Demetreos, vice president of forward planning and land development for D.R. Horton said entitlement delays continue to cause problems for new housing production.<\/p>\n
\u201cOne of the biggest concerns is the availability of developable lots,\u201d Demetreos said, noting that it takes anywhere from 18 to 36 months to move raw land through the entitlement process.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Demetreos said that the delays, in addition to infrastructure conditions and mitigation fees, are passed to buyers.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIt just drives up the cost of housing,\u201d Demetreos said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Out of reach<\/p>\n
These pressures are increasing the already high affordability concerns. The median price of a new home in the Fresno metro is $598,537, according to industry statistics cited in the Real Estate Forecast program.\u00a0<\/p>\n
An estimated 82.78% of households are unable to afford that price point.<\/p>\n
Even small increases put some homes out of reach. In Fresno, a $1,000 increase in a new home\u2019s price would price out an additional 176 households.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Locked in by rates<\/p>\n
Inventory is improving on the resale market, but financing conditions continue to stall movement. Jason Farris, the president of the Fresno Association of Realtors, said inventory is up 10% year over year, but many homeowners remain locked into low-rate mortgages.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cFifty percent of mortgages right now are at 4% or lower,\u201d Farris said. \u201cHow do you trade in this 3% mortgage for a 6.5% mortgage?\u201d<\/p>\n
Fresno County\u2019s median resale price is about $405,000, down around 1.3% from a year ago, while homes are taking nearly two months to sell, nearly double from a year ago.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Active listings have risen to roughly 3,200, while 98.3% sale-to-list ratio suggests that buyers have gained some negotiating leverage.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Farris said that sellers need to adjust their expectations.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIf they price to sell, they\u2019ll sell,\u201d he said. \u201cIf they price to test the waters, they\u2019re just going to be testing their patience.\u201d<\/p>\n
All roads lead here<\/p>\n
Despite the challenges, both Farris and Demetreos said that there still is opportunity, mainly for buyers who are ready to test the waters.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat you\u2019re going to see is smaller lots, and even some smaller houses on some smaller lots,\u201d Demetreos said. \u201cThere\u2019s a lot of people that want to buy a home, and they don\u2019t need a big mansion \u2014 they just need home ownership.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThe opportunity is in Fresno. It just is,\u201d Farris said, citing price gaps with coastal California markets like Los Angeles and San Francisco. \u201cIf you\u2019re looking to build wealth in California in 2026, all roads lead to Fresno.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
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